Specter-Sestak debate gets ugly (and new polling shows Specter in BIG trouble).
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  Specter-Sestak debate gets ugly (and new polling shows Specter in BIG trouble).
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Author Topic: Specter-Sestak debate gets ugly (and new polling shows Specter in BIG trouble).  (Read 15343 times)
Smash255
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« Reply #25 on: May 05, 2010, 10:24:42 PM »

DSCC is now wasting money trying to save Specter. Ugh.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/05/dscc_investing.php

I'm starting to think this could end up really close.

That was probably the deal that was made when Specter switched, and voted for HCR as part of his side of the bargain, etc.  I have this intuition that Specter is more interested in political survival than ideology. He is a very practical man.

Nah, he was always decidedly left of center for the GOP. And as the GOP has steadily moved further and further right, it was a race between retirement and him leaving the party.

Ya, that is Specter's side of the story I admit. Color me cynical. The ironic thing in any event as to timing, is that the next Senate will have more moderate GOP Senators.

Eh, maybe.  Its hard to say exactly how moderate Hoeven will be.  Castle will be moderate, but Voinovich is leaving.   I don't think Kirk will win when its all set and done.

However, keep in mind the PA Republican electorate became much more conservative.  Specter's strongest base was moderates in suburban Philadelphia.  The Party registration changes in Montgomery, Bucks, Delaware and Chester counties were simply immense.  Specter's old school moderate suburban base simply left the party in droves.  FTR, I am pulling for Sestak and would vote for him if I was in PA.
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bergie72
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« Reply #26 on: May 05, 2010, 11:51:48 PM »

The last polls have Specter up by 8 points.  When you look back two months and Specter was up by 20 points or more, things start to look really interesting! 
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Torie
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« Reply #27 on: May 06, 2010, 12:28:41 AM »

One other thought about Specter switching parties. He himself said it was because he didn't think he could win the GOP primary. He did not mention much about ideology. It was more about his opinion that he thought himself indispensable to remain in office for the good of the public square. He said he would not change his views or votes, including his continued opposition to card check. In reality of course, once he switched, he became a mainstream liberal Dem, and ceased to be a "moderate." 

Ya, I know I am being uncharitable, but Specter does not excite any eleemosynary instincts in me.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #28 on: May 06, 2010, 06:01:30 AM »

Well, I think it should be noted that if I asked 95/100 people here on the campus, they wouldnt even know what a Specter or Sestak was, let alone be preparing to vote, which could be cause for concern for Sestak. Then again, this is the kind of small elitist school where Sestak may not be reaching (it splits about 50/50 in registration).
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J. J.
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« Reply #29 on: May 06, 2010, 06:43:16 AM »

Sestak is probably the stronger candidate in the general.

Right now, Specter has damaged himself with the attacks on Sestak's military record.  It will probably damage him in the general, if he wins the primary.
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Badger
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« Reply #30 on: May 06, 2010, 11:51:08 AM »

DSCC is now wasting money trying to save Specter. Ugh.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/05/dscc_investing.php

I'm starting to think this could end up really close.

That was probably the deal that was made when Specter switched, and voted for HCR as part of his side of the bargain, etc.  I have this intuition that Specter is more interested in political survival than ideology. He is a very practical man.

Nah, he was always decidedly left of center for the GOP. And as the GOP has steadily moved further and further right, it was a race between retirement and him leaving the party.

Ya, that is Specter's side of the story I admit. Color me cynical. The ironic thing in any event as to timing, is that the next Senate will have more moderate GOP Senators.

Eh, maybe.  Its hard to say exactly how moderate Hoeven will be.  Castle will be moderate, but Voinovich is leaving.   I don't think Kirk will win when its all set and done.

However, keep in mind the PA Republican electorate became much more conservative.  Specter's strongest base was moderates in suburban Philadelphia.  The Party registration changes in Montgomery, Bucks, Delaware and Chester counties were simply immense.  Specter's old school moderate suburban base simply left the party in droves. 

Exactly. Don't get me wrong, Torie; I have no doubt that Specter would've stayed a Republican if he thought he would beat Toomey in the primary. But as Smash pointed out his base switched en masse to the Democrats, so why wouldn't he also?

Perhaps it would have been more accurate to say the last 30 years were a race between whether Specter's retirement and the GOP leaving him rather than the other way around. And in 2010 the inevitable rightward march of the Republican Party finally won.
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Franzl
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« Reply #31 on: May 06, 2010, 12:36:49 PM »

Specter votes in Specter's interest. That's pretty much all you can say about the man.
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Lunar
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« Reply #32 on: May 06, 2010, 09:27:55 PM »
« Edited: May 06, 2010, 09:30:11 PM by Lunar »

What is it w/ pennsylvania and nasty senate debates? I remember the 2006 campaign...there were some nasty pennsylvania senate debates there too. Pennsylvania and nasty senate debates is kind of like South Carolina and nasty presidential primaries.

Is it Pennsylvania or Specter straddling party divides?  

really, this ad is nothing compared to the one Arlen put out against Sestak, that basically accused him of a dishonorable discharge from the military

One of the reasons why this ad is so hard hitting is that it doesn't really deviate from the facts.  Specter broadcasted himself as quite right-wing in his last two primary challenges as a Republican and now he's trying to reframe himself as a liberal.  It's really not thaaat nasty to point that out in explicit terms. 
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #33 on: May 07, 2010, 10:18:15 AM »

They are tied in the tracking poll today.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #34 on: May 08, 2010, 07:58:43 AM »

Sestak is now ahead of Specter 44-42 according to the tracking poll:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/05/08/sestak_edges_ahead_of_specter.html
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Lunar
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« Reply #35 on: May 08, 2010, 08:03:26 AM »

Big question: If Specter loses his primary, how will he vote when there is no more political gain to be had?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #36 on: May 08, 2010, 08:08:47 AM »

Since Charlie Crist is doing well, Specter may bet he should have went independent.
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Franzl
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« Reply #37 on: May 08, 2010, 08:11:12 AM »

Since Charlie Crist is doing well, Specter may bet he should have went independent.

I don't think an Independent has any chance of winning Pennsylvania.
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Lunar
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« Reply #38 on: May 08, 2010, 08:14:53 AM »

Since Charlie Crist is doing well, Specter may bet he should have went independent.

I don't think an Independent has any chance of winning Pennsylvania.

Actually, looking at the numbers, one shouldn't have a very good chance in Florida either.  Florida has no serious base of Independent voters, nor a base of ideologically moderate Independent voters. 
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #39 on: May 08, 2010, 08:19:02 AM »

Both Florida and PA have very high Jewish base of voters and they are very independent minded like Lieberman.  I was simply matching who fits best with those independent voters.
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J. J.
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« Reply #40 on: May 08, 2010, 08:25:54 AM »

Both Florida and PA have very high Jewish base of voters and they are very independent minded like Lieberman.  I was simply matching who fits best with those independent voters.

I think it is only about 3% of the electorate.  Jews, however, do reasonably well in PA .  Shapp, 1970, 1974, Rendell, 2002, 2006.

In some of Shapp's earlier races, in the 1960's, there was a lot of Antisemitism.
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Lunar
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« Reply #41 on: May 08, 2010, 08:26:53 AM »

Both Florida and PA have very high Jewish base of voters and they are very independent minded like Lieberman.  I was simply matching who fits best with those independent voters.

I think you mean "old," as those two states are the two oldest states in the country I believe.
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Holmes
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« Reply #42 on: May 08, 2010, 08:33:02 AM »

Who are the unions backing? I'd love to see a Democratic machine vs. unions battle.
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Lunar
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« Reply #43 on: May 08, 2010, 08:34:28 AM »

Who are the unions backing? I'd love to see a Democratic machine vs. unions battle.

You're not gonna get it.  AFLCIO is behind Specter.
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Holmes
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« Reply #44 on: May 08, 2010, 08:38:58 AM »

Disappointing.
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Lunar
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« Reply #45 on: May 08, 2010, 08:56:27 AM »

I mean, how often do they oppose the White House?  The only state where they dare is Arkansas, where the White House's opinion is decidedly unwelcome on everything but black radio. 
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J. J.
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« Reply #46 on: May 08, 2010, 09:00:54 AM »

I think one problem is that both candidates are so badly damaged, it will be difficult for either to win.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #47 on: May 08, 2010, 09:09:35 AM »

I think the leads for the GOP in PA,OH,and IL is due to lack of GOP opposition in the primary more than anything else and the Dems having had to fend off the primary challenger.  The RNC did a very good job of getting the GOP to unite behind one candidate.

I think it will be more likely for the Dems to split the Gov race and Senate race in all three states than the GOP sweeping both offices.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #48 on: May 08, 2010, 10:08:08 AM »

I think one problem is that both candidates are so badly damaged, it will be difficult for either to win.

I know it's a fool's errand to ask, but can you explain to us why Sestak is "damaged"?
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Franzl
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« Reply #49 on: May 08, 2010, 10:12:04 AM »

I think one problem is that both candidates are so badly damaged, it will be difficult for either to win.

I know it's a fool's errand to ask, but can you explain to us why Sestak is "damaged"?

Because he's the Democrat.
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