Specter-Sestak debate gets ugly (and new polling shows Specter in BIG trouble).

[J. J.]

Either way, I'd find it supremely hilarious if Specter loses this primary after switching parties to avoid losing the other one.

Not possible in PA, unless Toomey withdraws or dies.

One thing that will damage Spector is the perceived attach on the military.

[J. J.]

Sestak is probably the stronger candidate in the general.

Right now, Specter has damaged himself with the attacks on Sestak's military record.  It will probably damage him in the general, if he wins the primary.

[J. J.]

Both Florida and PA have very high Jewish base of voters and they are very independent minded like Lieberman.  I was simply matching who fits best with those independent voters.

I think it is only about 3% of the electorate.  Jews, however, do reasonably well in PA .  Shapp, 1970, 1974, Rendell, 2002, 2006.

In some of Shapp's earlier races, in the 1960's, there was a lot of Antisemitism.

[J. J.]

I think one problem is that both candidates are so badly damaged, it will be difficult for either to win.

[J. J.]

I think one problem is that both candidates are so badly damaged, it will be difficult for either to win.

I know it's a fool's errand to ask, but can you explain to us why Sestak is "damaged"?

Specter's negative ads.  A lot of solid Democratic supporters lining up behind Specter; it is not impossible to heal that, but it can leave wounds.

[J. J.]

I think one problem is that both candidates are so badly damaged, it will be difficult for either to win.

I know it's a fool's errand to ask, but can you explain to us why Sestak is "damaged"?

Specter's negative ads.  A lot of solid Democratic supporters lining up behind Specter; it is not impossible to heal that, but it can leave wounds.

Then I guess that Rand Paul, Trey Grayson, Marco Rubio and Tom Campbell are damaged too and can't win their respective races.

Do any of them have these close (and volatile) election?

[J. J.]

I'm hoping Sestak wins the primary.

I'm hoping Specter wins, because I want the seat to go Republican.

[J. J.]

I'm hoping Sestak wins the primary.

I'm hoping Specter wins, because I want the seat to go Republican.

I'm hoping Sestak wins and still loses the general, just to slap the liberals here in the face

Because Sestak is such a leftie...

He is actually to the left of Specter.  In terms of biography, he is a great candidate for PA.  In terms of policy, he's to the left of just about any non-Phila PA politician.

[J. J.]

What has Sestak been doing that has made him grab all the momentum these past few days? Is it just that ad of Specter as a Republican?

Specter also ran that "Sestak the lousy sailor" ad, that backfired royally.

[J. J.]

What has Sestak been doing that has made him grab all the momentum these past few days? Is it just that ad of Specter as a Republican?

Specter also ran that "Sestak the lousy sailor" ad, that backfired royally.

And Sestak's saved all his money for a massive ad buy in the last two weeks of the campaign.

And that certainly didn't hurt either.  What started the collapse was the Specter ad.

There is also a new Rasmussen poll out that shows Toomey and Sestak tied in the general while Toomey leads Specter by double digits. Any Democrat who votes for Specter in the primary at this point needs their head checked.

That is what I've been saying.  Sestak is much more formidable in the general.

I'd like to see Specter win largely because he will be much weaker against Toomey.

[J. J.]

Obama's commercial for Specter starts running tomorrow, according local Phila news.

[J. J.]

Well, with Specter, fwiw, Obama needs his vote badly for the rest of the year

Agreed, but it could help in a Democratic primary.  Specter has the habit of being sneaky.

[J. J.]

Just saw part of the commercial with Obama.  Biden is coming to help. 

There is some speculation that Obama might be making a personal appearance.

[J. J.]

Just saw part of the commercial with Obama.  Biden is coming to help. 

There is some speculation that Obama might be making a personal appearance.

Obama=Doing more to help the Republicans win in Pennsylvania than Pat Toomey ever could........

I'm not disagreeing.

I don't think it is over, and I think it will be a photo finish.

[J. J.]

Another poll coming out tomorrow, this time from Franklin and Marshall. It will apparently show Sestak "ahead by around five points" not unlike the other recent ones.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/2010/05/why_sestak_might_really_pull_i.html

F & M polling is one of the better ones for PA.

[J. J.]

Specter has started the Obama ad.

[J. J.]

Specter +2 in Quinnipiac, down from +8 last week.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/05/12/too_close_to_call_in_pennsylvania.html

And in the last month......it's been a near avalance in falling poll numbers.

My question is, has Specter plugged the gap with the Obama commercial.

[J. J.]

F & M came out with Specter 38 Sestak 29, 7.9 MOE.

http://www.centredaily.com/2010/05/12/1971775/polls-specter-sestak-race-too.html

[J. J.]

F & M came out with Specter 38 Sestak 29, 7.9 MOE.

http://www.centredaily.com/2010/05/12/1971775/polls-specter-sestak-race-too.html

WRONG. The numbers for F & M are Sestak 38 Specter 36. The numbers you posted are for ALL REGISTERED DEMOCRATS. I think it's safe to say that all registered Democrats will not be heading to the polls for this primary.

Textbook example of J. J. dishonesty (even ignoring the fact that F&M is a garbage uni poll anyway.)

That is what the story says, and it didn't qualify the other numbers; it is well within the MOE.  Quinniac, your favorite pollster, put him ahead in the same story.

Actually F & M is one of the better pollsters from PA.

The story didn't caveat it:

The Franklin & Marshall poll shows Sestak with 38 percent and Specter with 36 percent. The sampling error margin was plus or minus 7.9 percentage points. One in four were undecided. Telephone surveys were conducted May 3 through Sunday.

In Franklin & Marshall's broader survey of registered Democrats, Specter had a slight lead, 38 percent to 29 percent, with a sampling error margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Read more: http://www.centredaily.com/2010/05/12/1971775/polls-specter-sestak-race-too.html#ixzz0nkVWTfOX


You must be in panic mode, BRTD.

It looks close, and, Spade's observation may be correct.  The Obama commercial probably put a dent into any momentum, if not stopping or reversing it. 

For Democrats that are a bit bipartisan, they just got an image of Specter being supported by GWB and BHO.  For BHO supporters, the just got the image of BHO supporting Specter.

[J. J.]

Allow me to translate the post above for people not yet familiar with JJ:
Spin spin spin, spin spin spin. Spin spin and spin spin. Spin Spin.

No, quoting the newspaper article, which was linked in the post.

But now let me translate, Sestak supporters who are panicked by the result.

It is going to be a close race.

[J. J.]

Regarding Brittain33's comment number 2 about Specter about some thinking he is only the candidate that can win, how could one believe that when the polls now show him running far weaker against Toomey than Sestak is at the moment?  Thanks.

Someplace there was polling on that.  It was basically a "Who do you think can win the general election" question.  Specter "won" that poll.  I think 29% thought that Sestak could win.

I don't agree; I've said from the start that Sestak is the stronger general election candidate.  The perception might be that Sestak is weaker. 

[J. J.]

Apparently the Specter campaign is getting really desperate, they are crying foul on the use of public pictures of the Senator because he was in chemo at the time:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/05/13/specter-chemo-photo-in-se_n_575322.html

Classic Specter.

A small negative for Sestak (after a run of brilliant successes).

[J. J.]

Sestak 40, Toomey 42.

[J. J.]

Sestak retakes the lead in the tracking poll (by 2%).

There is also supposed to be a Research 2000 poll out today showing Sestak leading by 2%.

Talk about too close for comfort.

You mean Specter right, wrt the Muhlenberg thingy?

Ah, yes. Sorry.

Translation:  SpinSpinSpinSpin.

Or turnabout is fair play.

[J. J.]

Phila Black Clergy just endorsed Specter.