Specter-Sestak debate gets ugly (and new polling shows Specter in BIG trouble).

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Specter voted against Kagan for Solicitor General, now he's lean approve for Supreme Court?  Sestak is having a field day with this.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Specter +2 in Quinnipiac, down from +8 last week.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/05/12/too_close_to_call_in_pennsylvania.html

And in the last month......it's been a near avalance in falling poll numbers.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

F & M came out with Specter 38 Sestak 29, 7.9 MOE.

http://www.centredaily.com/2010/05/12/1971775/polls-specter-sestak-race-too.html

WRONG. The numbers for F & M are Sestak 38 Specter 36. The numbers you posted are for ALL REGISTERED DEMOCRATS. I think it's safe to say that all registered Democrats will not be heading to the polls for this primary.

Textbook example of J. J. dishonesty (even ignoring the fact that F&M is a garbage uni poll anyway.)

Considering he provied the link, he can't be "dishonest".......I think he just misread or just didn't caveat that it was registerd dems vs. likely dems.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Textbook example of J. J. dishonesty (even ignoring the fact that F&M is a garbage uni poll anyway.)

Considering he provied the link, he can't be "dishonest".......I think he just misread or just didn't caveat that it was registerd dems vs. likely dems.

Yes, I'd seen 38-29 cited as a headline number elsewhere, too.

Yeah it's an honest mistake.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

My couple of observations of reality for Sestak supporters:

1) Momentum (I'm a little concerned that Sestak is peaking too early, fwiw)
2) Sealing the deal (A certain bit of the big movement will stick, more likely than not it would have happened anyway, but the polling says that Sestak's "made the offer".  Over the next few days, we'll know whether he can close the deal.  Recently, think of this as similar to what happened in Britain.)

The problem I can't get around is that these two candidates were not created equal. Specter is both the incumbent and one who was an opponent of the Democrats for 30+ years. Sestak is doctrinally sound and not well-known enough to have earned real enemies. Specter is relying on the votes of hundreds of thousands of people who voted against him in 2004. It's hard for me to see how he pulls it out. Speaking as a Democrat, there are precious few ways I could imagine Specter having "sealed the deal" with me or other Democrats when the only rationale, his comparative electability, has been seriously called into question.

Brilliant observation, of course.  My best guess, brittain........Specter brings home the bacon and people want their fill of bacon.   I can see him pulling out the primary.......but God I hope not.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

My couple of observations of reality for Sestak supporters:

1) Momentum (I'm a little concerned that Sestak is peaking too early, fwiw)

"Too early"? Sestak just pulled ahead or even in most polls within the last week, and the primary's only 6 days away.

Yeah the local talking heads are saying he's just peaking now and momentum is on his side.