The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest

[Alcon]

PV:
Bush 50%
Kerry 47%
Nader 1%
Other 2%

Other includes Badnarik, who I give about a 50% chance of being able to eek out enough votes to round to 1%. I give Nader about a 65% chance of this.

EDIT:

Oh yes, and EV's:

Bush 283
Kerry 254
Abstain 1

[Alcon]

Wow, I hope that this doesn't actually happen. But it's my latest prediction.



Bush 269
Kerry 268
Abstain 1

Bush 49%
Kerry 48%
Badnarik 1%
Nader 1%
Other 1%

[Alcon]

Refined my prediction yet again:



Bush 296
Kerry 241
Abstain 1

I also now have individual popular vote projections for the states:
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=11699

[Alcon]

Final Update by 12.00 Noon Tomorrow - Likely sooner

Vorlon - can't you get a place to upload this stuff? Your images are always broken.

[Alcon]

Kerry 276
Bush 262
Bush faithless 1 (the WV elector)

Popular vote
Kerry 49%
Bush 48%
Nader 2%
Other 1%

There ya go. I have a feeling Nebraska's first two districts were accidental.

[Alcon]

Bush 286
Kerry 252

Oh yeah PV numbers.

Bush 50.0
Kerry 49.0
Other 1.0%

I have taken JMF's title as master election predictor.  I got all 51 states right, and only 2 senate races wrong (AK and NC).

Onward to 2006.

...But you did horribly with shading, and that's what matters!

It does!