The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest

[KerryAlva]

My Prediction:

Kerry: 293
Bush: 245

States to note:

Colorado and New Mexico are Kerry because of the heavy hispanic turnout tomorrow.

Bush wins Florida, but loses Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa

Virginia will probably go Bush. but is a tossup

New Hampshire switch sides and goes Kerry

Senate:

GOP pads lead in Senate to 55-45 (net gain of 4).  They gain South Dakota, Louisiana, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, and North Carolina and the GOP loses Illinois and Oklahoma and the Dems will gain the other Oklahoma Senate Seat in 2008.

Dems gain ground in the House.  Current makeup is 226-208-1.  The Dems will pick up 6 seats, 4 in Texas and 1 in Oklahoma CD 1, and 1 elsewhere, and the independent turns Democrat making the new House makeup 222-213.
Tom DeLay is one of the congressmen that will lose.

[KerryAlva]

My final:
Kerry 274, picking up NH and OH.
Bush 264, picking up WI.
This is actually based on weighted poll averages - but skewed by 1.5 points towards Kerry. Otherwise OH, IA and NM would all be Bush country, and now who would want to see that!?

Very realistic prediction.  With your assessment, if Bush were to pick up a state like Iowa, then Bush would win 271-267.  Squeaker Indeed.

[KerryAlva]

My final:
Kerry 274, picking up NH and OH.
Bush 264, picking up WI.
This is actually based on weighted poll averages - but skewed by 1.5 points towards Kerry. Otherwise OH, IA and NM would all be Bush country, and now who would want to see that!?

Very realistic prediction.  With your assessment, if Bush were to pick up a state like Iowa, then Bush would win 271-267.  Squeaker Indeed.

Yeah, either of those three would be enough for Bush...then again, if I skew it an additional point, we pick up FL and hold WI, too. .)

Another very real possibility

[KerryAlva]

https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=step3

This is my Final Answer

[KerryAlva]

https://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=step3

This is my Final Answer

 If this link doesn't work, you can go view it by searching for BushAlva Version 11.

The map shows Kerry sweeping the Big 3 and Little 3