The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest

[minionofmidas]

My final:
Kerry 274, picking up NH and OH.
Bush 264, picking up WI.
This is actually based on weighted poll averages - but skewed by 1.5 points towards Kerry. Otherwise OH, IA and NM would all be Bush country, and now who would want to see that!?

[minionofmidas]

My final:
Kerry 274, picking up NH and OH.
Bush 264, picking up WI.
This is actually based on weighted poll averages - but skewed by 1.5 points towards Kerry. Otherwise OH, IA and NM would all be Bush country, and now who would want to see that!?

Very realistic prediction.  With your assessment, if Bush were to pick up a state like Iowa, then Bush would win 271-267.  Squeaker Indeed.

Yeah, either of those three would be enough for Bush...then again, if I skew it an additional point, we pick up FL and hold WI, too. .)

[minionofmidas]

Oh, yes -
my shock map is Al's minus Va, Or, and Mi.

[minionofmidas]

Kerry 279 - Bush 259

Kerry flips NH and FL
Bush flips IA and NM

I have search all the pages of this thread and I can't find a prediction  matching mine.  Why is my prediction unique?  What is so hard about believing Kerry could flip NH and FL while Bush flips IA and NM?

Simple, really. We all know that's exactly what's going to happen. None of wants you to lose his title as Master Predictor.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, but a tie looks bad on your record anyways.

[minionofmidas]

AND THE WINNER IS...
(well assuming there's no more funny stuff going on in IA, NM or OH)
MHS2002! 51 outta 51!
May the Drooling-on begin!
Tied 2nd places to Nation and Boss Tweed who also posted correct maps but later.

[minionofmidas]

AND THE WINNER IS...
(well assuming there's no more funny stuff going on in IA, NM or OH)
MHS2002! 51 outta 51!
May the Drooling-on begin!
Tied 2nd places to Nation and Boss Tweed who also posted correct maps but later.

I think John Ford has the same prediction as me...

No, he has Hawai'i wrong.