The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest (user search)
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Author Topic: The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest  (Read 43649 times)
Blue Rectangle
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,683


Political Matrix
E: 8.50, S: -0.62

« on: October 29, 2004, 04:34:11 PM »


Bush 301/50.1%
Kerry 237/47.6%

I'll be different and say that Bush can pull off NH in a fairly close election.
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Blue Rectangle
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,683


Political Matrix
E: 8.50, S: -0.62

« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2004, 04:08:04 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2004, 04:17:58 PM by Blue Rectangle »

I overestimated Bush in the EC: WI, NH and ME-2, but those were all very close.

I underestimated Bush in the PV: +2.5%.

What I can't figure is how Bush broke +3% in the PV but came close to losing the EV.  His numbers in CA and NY, for instance, were not that much higher this year, so where did all those votes go?

Edit:
NY shows Kerry's margin was 500,000 votes less than Gore's, so that accounts for some of the difference in the PV.
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