The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest

[freedomburns]

There are seven states that I consider to still be toss-ups.  They are too close to call.  They will determine the final outcome, and I expect the final outcome to be within two points in each of these seven.  They are: Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

I am not confident in predicting the election for either candidate.  There are too many states still in play and too many variables. 

Confidence Tally:
Kerry - 242
Bush - 213
Toss - 83

Final Tally:
Kerry - 304
Bush - 234

Popular Vote: 
Kerry - 51.0%
Bush - 47.0%
Other - 2.0%

Senate 50/50
House Dem 211, Rep 224

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[freedomburns]

Since the Prediction are closed starting at 11pm EST tonight (about an hour from this post), I've uploaded a not-yet-final version of the ev calculator that includes maps with percentages.  you can play with it here
Dave

Hey Dave, you aren't going to post a prediction?  Come on man.  I'd like to see how you'd call it.


freedomburns

[freedomburns]

Kerry 279 - Bush 259

Kerry flips NH and FL
Bush flips IA and NM

I have search all the pages of this thread and I can't find a prediction  matching mine.  Why is my prediction unique?  What is so hard about believing Kerry could flip NM and FL while Bush flips IA and NM?

That is an excellent prediction jmfcst.  It could very well be correct in my estimation.  We shall see.  Maybe as soon as eighteen hours from now.