The 2004 Election Prediction Map Contest

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hmm... no idea... everything is too messed up. I'll sit this out.

Although I reckon there will be a couple of upsets. There usually is.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah... O.K. You guys win. Here they are:




When the chips are down, the polls make no bloody sense at all.

So instead of a conventional prediction map mine is... different

Basically the prediction map is the most probable (assuming the polls are correct. Oh dear) outcome... well... sort of.

But the *important* map is the confidence map is a shock map: if either candidate wins in any grey state that result would not actually *shock* me. Sure in several cases it's *very* unlikely, but better semi-safe than very, very sorry.
If Kerry wins a Dark Blue State or if Bush wins a Dark Red State I *will* be shocked.
Hence the name "shock map".

Oh yes... EV totals:

Kerry: 271
Bush: 266
Robb: 1 (well... he *is* an egomaniac...)

Popular Vote:

Kerry: 50%
Bush: 49.5%
Other: 0.5%

Now THAT is a complete guess

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh, yes -
my shock map is Al's minus Va, Or, and Mi.

Great Minds think alike.
So do fools...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Kerry 291 Bush 247



Dave

Still not working.

O.K...
Go to www.freewebs.com
Register a free acount (takes hardly any time at all)
Upload the image
Go to site manager and add it to a webpage (they generate these automatically)
Save webpage.
Do the adress thingy and post the img.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We'll see what happens; it should be a fun ride. I have plenty of highly caffinated beverages ready.

I'm thinking of getting a few hours sleep in this afternoon (bloody 5 hour time difference...) and watch the results come in.
With lot's of coffee.

Or I might listen to it on the radio... problem is when I did that with the Canadian Elections I fell alseep a few minutes before the Atlantic Results came in :-(
Woke up in time to gloat about the BC results though :-)