UK General Election 2010 Polls Thread

[You kip if you want to...]

Tory leads

Angus Reid 12% (over Labour - 7% over Lib Dems)
ComRes 9%
Populus 9%
ICM 8%
Opinium 8%
YouGov 7%
TNS 6%
Harris 6%

Tory Spread

37-37-36-36-35-35-35-33

Labour Spread

29-28-28-28-28-27-27-24

Lib Dem Spread

29-29-28-28-27-27-26-26

That appears to be it for tonight.

These are potentially good polls for the Tories.

The real fight is the fight for second place now.

[pragmatic liberal]

It's interesting - the weekend and Monday polls seemed to have the LibDems fading, but most of today's polls have them back to being neck-and-neck with Labour, although most still have them only tied or slightly lower.

It'll be interesting to see what happens there. In past elections, polls usually overstate Labour support by a couple of points, and understate LibDem support by a couple points. But it's very conceivable that some of the air could go out of the Clegg bubble, especially as it remains hugely unlikely that Clegg would be in contention to be PM. And Brown has actually discovered a pulse in the last few days. The predictions of an imminent Tory govt. may cause some wavering left-of-center voters to return to Labour.

[Tuck!]

Even if Labour won the most seats, Gordon Brown would not be a part of the picture. That isn't a possibility, however. The Conservatives will have enough seats to ensure David Cameron as Britain's next Prime Minister. After 13 long years, it is time for a change.

[RodPresident]

UNS is worst thing to seat predictions. I would prefer a RNS, that includes third or regional parties, like SNP or Plaid.

[Dan the Roman]

It's interesting - the weekend and Monday polls seemed to have the LibDems fading, but most of today's polls have them back to being neck-and-neck with Labour, although most still have them only tied or slightly lower.

It'll be interesting to see what happens there. In past elections, polls usually overstate Labour support by a couple of points, and understate LibDem support by a couple points. But it's very conceivable that some of the air could go out of the Clegg bubble, especially as it remains hugely unlikely that Clegg would be in contention to be PM. And Brown has actually discovered a pulse in the last few days. The predictions of an imminent Tory govt. may cause some wavering left-of-center voters to return to Labour.

Part of that was the bank holiday. Polls over the final weekend in 2005 showed Labour up double digits, before falling back to earth. The final ICM i believe had them up 6, 38-32.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Questions Need To Be Asked, I guess.