UK Election - Results Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Don't they supported changing the Welsh flag because they consider the dragon a Satantic symbol or something?

Yep

[You kip if you want to...]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/3335_10_05_10_5_14_06.PNG

Swing information from the BBC.
Map template from the Atlas gallery.

[Serenity Now]

Tory and LibDem keys for anyone interested:



I also have a Labour one (which I'm using right now) and a pretty purple SNP one.

These aren't my 'normal' colours and with good reason; over 600 constituencies means that more shades are needed and well... yeah.

I can do both once I've finished my 4,000 word coursework essay due on Wednesday

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Map shows the percentage of people who voted the same way as me. Bigger picture here.

[minionofmidas]

I noticed UKIP also ran some Asian candidates. It would be pretty weird if the BNP did as well.

They had a guy running whose father is Turkish Cypriot (and had connections to the Grey Wolves ) but whose mother is English.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just realised something quite funny; Labour must have led within the boundaries of the old Galloway & Upper Nithsdale this year. Haha.

[minionofmidas]

Just realised something quite funny; Labour must have led within the boundaries of the old Galloway & Upper Nithsdale this year. Haha.

I've always wondered about the SNP collapse there... I guess Labour is where these voters went (and their 97 SNP vote was largely tactical)?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just realised something quite funny; Labour must have led within the boundaries of the old Galloway & Upper Nithsdale this year. Haha.

I've always wondered about the SNP collapse there... I guess Labour is where these voters went (and their 97 SNP vote was largely tactical)?

Yeah, they mostly went Labour. The SNP vote was mostly concentrated in the towns, some of which are surprisingly working class. I don't know how much was exactly 'tactical' ('anti-Tory', yes, obviously) though that was obviously the case in Stranraer. A lot of Russell Brown's voters might not vote for other Labour candidates, though.

[Јas]

One of my favourite results... in Hertford & Stortford, Mr David Barnes, "Independent English Delegate", got 0 votes. Don't think I've ever seen a zero return in a general election before.

[Hash]

One of my favourite results... in Hertford & Stortford, Mr David Barnes, "Independent English Delegate", got 0 votes. Don't think I've ever seen a zero return in a general election before.

That surprisingly happens in a good number (20-30ish) of French constituencies during legislative election. It beats me how such things happen.

[You kip if you want to...]

Did anyone see the LibDem's "Labservative Party" website during the campaign? It's been taken down. Can't think why...

[Silent Hunter]

One of my favourite results... in Hertford & Stortford, Mr David Barnes, "Independent English Delegate", got 0 votes. Don't think I've ever seen a zero return in a general election before.

I think that's a genuine first- the Vote For Yourself Rainbow Dream Ticket candidate got one vote in Cardiff North in 2005.

[You kip if you want to...]

One of my favourite results... in Hertford & Stortford, Mr David Barnes, "Independent English Delegate", got 0 votes. Don't think I've ever seen a zero return in a general election before.

Lol, he didn't even vote for himself.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's possible that he was on the SOPN but later withdrew and didn't appear on the ballot paper.

[DL]

Maybe someone tried to explain this before and I missed it - but remember "bigot-gate" (I'm really sick of how the media puts the suffix "gate" after every single incident no matter how trivial)? We were told that it would destroy the Labour Party, send them into third place, endless hyperbole from the media about the "incalculable damage" it would do the the Labour Party.

Not only did Labour actually gain ground afterwards - but the whole incident happened in the constituency of Rochdale near Manchester. Rochdale went LibDem in 2005 and actually had a very long history as a Liberal relative stronghold. In this election, the trends was SUPPOSED to be Labour dropping like a stone and the Lib Dems gaining ground like crazy. Well lo and behold in the Rochdale constituency - ground zero of "bigot-gate" - the Lib Dem incumbent lost to a challenger from Labour!!!

Any explanstion of how this could have happened?

[You kip if you want to...]

Maybe someone tried to explain this before and I missed it - but remember "bigot-gate" (I'm really sick of how the media puts the suffix "gate" after every single incident no matter how trivial)? We were told that it would destroy the Labour Party, send them into third place, endless hyperbole from the media about the "incalculable damage" it would do the the Labour Party.

Not only did Labour actually gain ground afterwards - but the whole incident happened in the constituency of Rochdale near Manchester. Rochdale went LibDem in 2005 and actually had a very long history as a Liberal relative stronghold. In this election, the trends was SUPPOSED to be Labour dropping like a stone and the Lib Dems gaining ground like crazy. Well lo and behold in the Rochdale constituency - ground zero of "bigot-gate" - the Lib Dem incumbent lost to a challenger from Labour!!!

Any explanstion of how this could have happened?

In my opinion, it was media saturation. No-one really cared after a while, we just got a laugh out of it. A lot people were also of the opinion that she was bigoted. It went the way of the Soldier's mother's letter last year and "Bully-gate" and it had the reverse effect of what the media wanted, people felt sorry for Gordon Brown.

[DL]

I guess in the end most things that happen during an election campaign don't really matter. In fact I would argue that the only single event during the entire UK election campaign that had a real material impact on the election results was the first leaders debate - and even there it had lss of an impact that many expected. Othern than that - the British could have voted the day the election was called and it would have been the same result as after a month of campaigning.

[Хahar 🤔]

One of my favourite results... in Hertford & Stortford, Mr David Barnes, "Independent English Delegate", got 0 votes. Don't think I've ever seen a zero return in a general election before.

The OMRLP is beaten to the honor.

I've seen some funny results in Jamaican elections before.

[minionofmidas]

Were UKIP spoilers?

If all the UKIP voters had voted Tory, would the Tories have a majority?
The answer, btw, is "yes, barely". They'd be adding 21 seats, which gives them exactly 326 seats, plus the speaker, plus likely Thirsk & Malton. Here's the list:

Format: Constituency (winner's lead on Tory / UKIP vote / share of UKIP voters that the Tories needed to swing... which is also what the table is ordered by)

Bolton West (92 / 1901 / 5%)
Southampton Itchen (192 / 1928 / 10%)
Hampstead & Kilburn (42 / 408 / 11%)
Dorset Mid & Poole North (269 / 2109 / 13%)*
Solihull (175 / 1200 / 15%)*
Dudley North (649 / 3267 / 20%)
Great Grimsby (714 / 2043 / 35%)
Telford (983 / 2428 / 41%)
Wirral South (531 / 1274 / 42%)
Newcastle-under-Lyme (1552 / 3491 / 45%)
Wells (800 / 1711 / 47%)*
Plymouth Moor View (1588 / 3188 / 50%)
Walsall South (1755 / 3449 / 51%)
Walsall North (990 / 1737 / 57%)
Saint Ives (1719 / 2560 / 68%)*
Morley & Outwood (1101 / 1506 / 73%)
Derby North (613 / 829 / 74%)
Saint Austell & Newquay (1312 / 1757 / 75%)*
Cleveland East & Middlesbrough South (1677 / 1881 / 90%)
Derbyshire North East (2445 / 2636 / 93%)
Somerton & Frome (1817 / 1932 / 95%)*

Asterisk denotes LibDem seat.

[DL]

The thing is - there is no way of knowing how many of those UKIP voters would have voted Tory otherwise. maybe they would not have voted at all or voted BNP? We could also look at ridings where Green party and various other leftwing candidates might have cost labour a seat or two. But in any of these exercises - 1+1 never seems to equal 2.

[You kip if you want to...]

We could also look at ridings where Green party and various other leftwing candidates might have cost labour a seat or two.

The only obvious ones are Brighton Pav. and Norwich South...

[You kip if you want to...]

First voting intention for the next election.

Con 38% (+1) Lab 34% (+4) LD 21% (-3). (changes on GE result)
ComRes/Sunday Mirror/Indy on Sunday

Interesting post-Brown bounce.

Only 5 years to go.

[Meeker]

I'm stunned that a party would receive a bounce after an unpopular leader resigns.

[Phony Moderate]

First voting intention for the next election.

Con 38% (+1) Lab 34% (+4) LD 21% (-3). (changes on GE result)
ComRes/Sunday Mirror/Indy on Sunday

Interesting post-Brown bounce.

Only 5 years to go.

Which, based on UNS, would be:

Tories - 291 seats
Labour - 286 seats
Lib Dems - 45 seats
Others - 28 seats

Tories short by 35 seats of an overall majority

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No polls outside election time, plz. It's listed in the rules. If you want to discuss polls, set up a thread in International General.

The Boardbashi hath spoken.