NDP pick up a seat in BC by-election

[Hatman 🍁]

(provincial legislature of course)

Results:

http://www.elections.bc.ca/elections/byelections/srp04/srp_1.htm#H

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Woo Hoo!
I'm off to bed now (analysis in the morning. Boy I am going to enjoy that), but this is nice news to go to sleep to.

:-)

[Hatman 🍁]

Despite only having three seats in the legislature, the NDP is ahead in the polls in BC. (or at least they were last I checked).  By-election story c/o the Province:

http://www.canada.com/vancouver/theprovince/news/story.html?id=f2becffb-17e1-447a-a25a-c6a90c772453  Turns out the riding went 60-20 for the liberals in 2001.

Also in Canadian provincial politics, Ralph Klein called an election a few days ago. It's coming up later in November.  The tories will win, and even both opposition parties are admitting it. A good website for more infor:

http://www.nodice.ca/elections/alberta/index.php

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Despite only having three seats in the legislature, the NDP is ahead in the polls in BC. (or at least they were last I checked).  By-election story c/o the Province:

http://www.canada.com/vancouver/theprovince/news/story.html?id=f2becffb-17e1-447a-a25a-c6a90c772453  Turns out the riding went 60-20 for the liberals in 2001.

Huge, huge swing... I think that the NDP *might* be able to pull off a win next year... and even if they don't they'll be picking up shedloads of seats :-)

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Now that Social Credit has gone the way of the Dinosaurs, no one can beat the Tories in Alberta... even with Klein as their leader...

[Hatman 🍁]

The trick to winning in Alberta is hating Ottawa. That's what Klein does best. The province hates the federal government, and that's what gets him elected. The only contested seats in Alberta are in Edmonton, and maybe in Lethbridge, but that's it.

As for in B.C., I am faily confident the NDP will win next year. If you didnt read that article, the election will be in May.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The trick to winning in Alberta is hating Ottawa. That's what Klein does best. The province hates the federal government, and that's what gets him elected. The only contested seats in Alberta are in Edmonton, and maybe in Lethbridge, but that's it.

Very true. One of the few cases where being a disgrace to humanity helps you're electoral chances...

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My spy In The Woods (ie: Inland Vancouver Island) tells me that the Liberals are heading for a meltdown on the Island... he reckons they might hang onto a few suburban seats and that the Greens might pick up a Saanich seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

If I didn't read a poll that said 60% of Albertans supported Kerry, I would say Alberta belonged in the US with Klein. I think he's the only Premier who has said he would use the notwithstanding clause in the constitution to block gay marriage. All the other premiers would accept it- whether they were prersonally opposed or for it.  Klein scares me a lot- but I'm glad he's out in Alberta and not here. However, his kind of politics work in a rich province like Alberta.

As for BC, knowing the politics of Vancouver Island, I wouldn't be suprised if the NDP swept it except for maybe a green seat here and there. If you look at the federal election, the NDP did well on the Island. Vancouver will go NDP as well. The BC Liberals will win some in the interior and will win in BC's Bible belt- suburban Vancouver. Esepecially Abbotsford- that's a really right-winged city.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If I didn't read a poll that said 60% of Albertans supported Kerry, I would say Alberta belonged in the US with Klein. I think he's the only Premier who has said he would use the notwithstanding clause in the constitution to block gay marriage. All the other premiers would accept it- whether they were prersonally opposed or for it.  Klein scares me a lot- but I'm glad he's out in Alberta and not here. However, his kind of politics work in a rich province like Alberta.

Klein's endorsement of the Sask Party last year cost them a "sure thing" election... much to my amusement

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Polls (which show a very close race either way) indicate that anger with Campbell is highest on the Island and in the most of the Interior... but he seems (maybe that should be "seemed"?) to have solid support in the Vancouver 'burbs.
There's a built-in advantage for the party leading in the Interior: currently that's the NDP, meaning that a PV tie probably means a small majority for the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder if the BC Conservative party might cut away from the BC Liberals if not win a few seats? I don't know much about them except that they had a merger recently. If the NDP are winning in Surrey, then that is really bad news for the Liberals.

And I'm not sure if the Saskatchewan election was ever a "sure" thing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder if the BC Conservative party might cut away from the BC Liberals if not win a few seats? I don't know much about them except that they had a merger recently. If the NDP are winning in Surrey, then that is really bad news for the Liberals.

BCConservatives could be worth a watch in the Peace River area I suppose... it's where the old BC PC's did best.

Actually North Surrey is usually a strong area for the NDP. However this by-election was in Central Surrey...
The NDP did actually hold this seat going into 2001 election... but by a small margin. The "Liberals" ran a "star" candidate in the by-election... and got hammered. As a rule Dippers do not win over 50% in Central Surrey.

Some interesting analysis here

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It did actually look like that for a while (NDP trailed by 7pts in the Spring) but by the time of the election the Sask Party's momentum had been dropping.
In retrospect Klein's endorsement was probably the final straw.