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Author Topic: Campaign Spot House Race Analysis  (Read 7416 times)
Lunar
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Ireland, Republic of
« on: May 09, 2010, 04:18:23 PM »
« edited: May 09, 2010, 04:24:02 PM by Lunar »

I don't think it's very good at all.

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This is filled with glaring holes that shows he's not really aware of the differences between these races.  Arcuri is tossup while the GOP should be measuring the drapes in Phil Hare's office?
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Lunar
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Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #1 on: May 09, 2010, 04:34:24 PM »

Yes Lunar,  the dude does seem to be on amphetamines or something, I admit. Hey, maybe the wave is already here and we just missed it. Smiley  But hey, he lists the candidates and the money, and has some other tidbits, and not all of us are Sam Spade, and need cheat sheets.

It's not just that he skews things in favor of the GOP, it's that he's skewing the wrong things.

Arcuri is probably the best example of that.  I assume he thinks that because Arcuri flipped his vote from yes to no on HCR that he's more likely to be reelected, but in reality, that flip doomed him.

I mean, he generally gets a vague idea of what seats are in danger +/- some, but he's just....off.

There are tons of cheat sheets far better than this one, check out Cook & Rothenberg.
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Lunar
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« Reply #2 on: May 09, 2010, 04:48:32 PM »
« Edited: May 09, 2010, 04:51:18 PM by Lunar »


Lunar is there some poll confirming that Accuri committed Seppuku because of his flip?

Well, everyone who flipped away from a yes committed Seppuku imo except for the really random ones (Lynch & Lipinski).  It's logically irrational, as the Senate version was more conservative.

Arcuri is just...I mean, the entire Democratic county apparatus up there is completely deflated.    Everyone is completely baffled by wtf he's doing.

I mean, Arcuri hasn't even made it clear whether or not he's even going to bother to run for reelection.  He's the only representative left in the House, as far as I'm aware, who's still publicly teasing his retirement.  
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Lunar
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« Reply #3 on: May 09, 2010, 04:53:35 PM »

Arcuri & Space, as far as I can tell, both just panicked.


In Upstate New York, Democrats feel betrayed by Rep. Arcuri
By SANDHYA SOMASHEKHAR
WaPo

Woodman's Pub has been the site of many celebrations over the years. On a recent evening, though, four Democrats gathered at the neon-lit bar to take stock of their problems.

Their county committee is splintered and has neither a Web site nor a headquarters. Their enthusiasm is outmatched by that of their Republican counterparts, who were jolted awake by the "tea party" movement. A liberal third party that had been an ally is now a threat.

And Rep. Michael Arcuri, the first Democrat to represent this area in the House since 1983, has become one of Congress's most vulnerable Democrats, unpopular not only with conservatives but with many of the activists who helped him get elected.

"We have a congressman we fought long and hard for, and you know, he didn't come through for us," said Sean Mack, a real estate agent, who sipped a Coke at the bar.

This year, he said, he will vote for Arcuri, but "my plan is not to, like, pound the pavement and go overboard and be a real zealot about it."

In a sun-filled kitchen a couple of blocks away, another group of Democrats tried to muster enthusiasm over slices of sausage-and-pepper pizza. Jo Schaffer, the Democratic committee's secretary, said she is waiting for Arcuri to visit them and personally explain his vote against the health-care bill.

"What has happened is a big disappointment. It's a betrayal -- I can't think of any other word," she said. "We are receptive to what he has to say about it. We want to hear his rationale, and I have no doubt we will come together behind him in the end."

Arcuri is part of a class of Democrats that some Republicans derisively refer to as the "wave babies," swept into office in 2006 at the peak of anger over President George W. Bush and the Iraq war. Republicans believe they can take back some of those seats this fall -- especially in GOP-leaning districts such as Arcuri's, which covers a swath of rural Upstate New York as well as several college towns, including Cortland.

Like Democrats elected recently in similar districts, Arcuri has tried to please both his base and his crossover supporters. Shortly after taking office, he joined the fiscally conservative Blue Dog Coalition. He voted in favor of the stimulus but against a "cap and trade" bill aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Then last month, he reversed course on the health-care bill, voting against it along with 33 of his Democratic colleagues after supporting it for months.

"We certainly appreciate the hard work that activists do, but I represent a largely moderate district and voted the way the district and I thought was best," Arcuri said in an e-mail. On his Web site, he said he was concerned that insurance premiums would rise for families, seniors and small businesses.

The vote deflated his most ardent backers -- "like a razor to a balloon," said Henry Steck, a Democratic activist and professor at the State University of New York at Cortland. "People were willing to roll with the punch [on cap and trade], but health-care reform is the signature issue of our time, of the Obama administration, et cetera. It's taken a lot of the wind out of the sails of his base."

His vote also provoked an immediate backlash from unions and the liberal Working Families Party, which delivered crucial support in Arcuri's narrow 2008 reelection. The party is considering fielding its own candidate this year.

Arcuri's Republican opponent, Richard Hanna, outraised Arcuri during the first three months of the year, collecting about $358,000 compared with Arcuri's $208,000.

Many Democrats say they share the frustrations that motivate Republicans and independents. Unemployment in Cortland County is higher than the national average, worsened by state budget cuts to schools and highway construction. Taxes are a near-universal concern.

Democrats, too, have been disappointed by their party's leadership in Washington. They think Obama's attempts to reach bipartisan agreements on health care and other issues has been naive. And they say Democratic leaders have not articulated their message clearly and forcefully enough to win over independents and quash the vocal tea party movement.

The tea party has a foothold here. Activists came out in force at rallies designed to sway Arcuri against the health-care bill. And a handful of signs that recently sprouted along the highway taunt some of the community's more liberal members. One says: "Double your taxes. Vote Democrat." Another advocates drilling for oil; a third condemns socialism.

At Woodman's, where they used to gather during the 2006 campaign, Mack and the other Democrats reminisced about another sign -- the giant one bearing Arcuri's name that they strapped to the back of a pickup and paraded around town that year.

"There's maybe 1 percent of the population that's willing to do the kinds of things I've done," Mack said. Though he had said he probably would not volunteer again for Arcuri's campaign, on this day he allowed: "It's still early. Let's see what happens."
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Lunar
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Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #4 on: May 09, 2010, 04:57:21 PM »

Of course, maybe Arcuri has been completely tarnished by what happened in 2008.


mmm?
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Lunar
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 30,404
Ireland, Republic of
« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2010, 06:12:06 AM »

It's fine to have Hare ad vulnerable, just not okay to say beating him is like beating the Rams.
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