PPP 2012 Iowa, South Carolina, and Michigan

[Rowan]

Iowa

Huckabee: 27%
Palin: 17%
Gingrich: 16%
Romney: 15%
Paul: 7%
DeMint: 2%
Thune: 2%

South Carolina

Gingrich: 25%
Romney: 24%
Palin: 22%
Huckabee: 19%
Paul: 7%

DeMint: 21%
Gingrich: 16%
Romney: 16%
Palin: 15%
Huckabee: 15%
Paul: 7%

Michigan

Romney: 37%
Palin: 24%
Gingrich: 16%
Huckabee: 12%
Paul: 6%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_PresIAMISC_531.pdf

[tmthforu94]

I'm quite suprised how low Romney is in Iowa, and how high he is in South Carolina. Gingrich is also really suprising me with how high he is polling; I wouldn't have expected it. Gingrich and Romney appear to be the frontrunners, with Huckabee and Palin right behind. The only thing is, I bet 2 of them don't even run.

[ej2mm15]

Red-Romney
Blue-Huckabee
Green-Palin
Yellow-Gingrich
Dark Green-Demint

[Derek]

Romney would win that but don't forget to include Mitch Daniels as he's being so quiet.

[California8429]

Red-Romney
Blue-Huckabee
Green-Palin
Yellow-Gingrich
Dark Green-Demint

SC is Gingrich

[California8429]

[ej2mm15]

Red-Romney
Blue-Huckabee
Green-Palin
Yellow-Gingrich
Dark Green-Demint

SC is Gingrich

I 'm just using the polls that have all the candidates

[Mr. Morden]

Looking at the crosstabs.....

Gingrich actually leads Palin among self-identified conservatives in both Iowa and South Carolina.

Romney's base still consists of moderates and olds.

Huckabee consistently does better among women than men.

[Devilman88]

Looking at the crosstabs, Palin leads among self-identified Liberal in IA, SC and is tied with self-identified Liberal in MI... That is very odd.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Looking at the crosstabs, Palin leads among self-identified Liberal in IA, SC and is tied with self-identified Liberal in MI... That is very odd.

I noticed 14% of DeMint voters in one crosstabs were liberals, while 2% of them said they were conservatives. That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. The overall numbers look accurate though. Palin/Huckabee will get killed in the Lowcountry where Gingrich and Romney should do well. That's what killed Huckabee last time in SC when McCain got 45% in Charleston County to his 18%.

[Devilman88]

Looking at the crosstabs, Palin leads among self-identified Liberal in IA, SC and is tied with self-identified Liberal in MI... That is very odd.

I noticed 14% of DeMint voters in one crosstabs were liberals, while 2% of them said they were conservatives. That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. The overall numbers look accurate though. Palin/Huckabee will get killed in the Lowcountry where Gingrich and Romney should do well. That's what killed Huckabee last time in SC when McCain got 45% in Charleston County to his 18%.

Oh i see.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Looking at the crosstabs, Palin leads among self-identified Liberal in IA, SC and is tied with self-identified Liberal in MI... That is very odd.

I noticed 14% of DeMint voters in one crosstabs were liberals, while 2% of them said they were conservatives. That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. The overall numbers look accurate though. Palin/Huckabee will get killed in the Lowcountry where Gingrich and Romney should do well. That's what killed Huckabee last time in SC when McCain got 45% in Charleston County to his 18%.

Oh i see.

Well, your point about Palin leading among liberals in SC doesn't make any sense, soI agree with you there. She probably won't do as well here as some may expect. Huckabee has also aligned himself with Andre Bauer which isn't doing him any favors. Voters will remember the commercials Huck is running right now touting Bauer for Governor.

Palin's best chance is to win Iowa and use that as a spring board. I don't think she'll be able to win any of the early states unless Huckabee doesn't run, in which she may be able to solidify the farright base to pick up SC. Even then, there's no guarantee. The Greenville area, which used to be extremely conservative, has moderated as its grown. Huckabee failed to win the county by as large a margin as people had predicted over McCain, and it probably has moderated further since 2008.

[Mr. Morden]

Looking at the crosstabs, Palin leads among self-identified Liberal in IA, SC and is tied with self-identified Liberal in MI... That is very odd.

These are self-identified GOP primary voters.  The %age in each state who claim to be "liberal" is 3-5%.  Too small to infer anything.