2013 Bulgarian referendum on nuclear energy

[GMantis]

I've calculated the results for some of the largest cities in Bulgaria. Towns marked with * are not province centers.

Sofia                  54.6%
Plovdiv               53.4%
Varna                 52.2%
Burgas               51.1%
Ruse                  54.1%
Stara Zagora     54.5%
Pleven               70.3%
Sliven                62.4%
Dobrich              55.2%
Shumen             58.7%
Pernik                61.2%
Haskovo            63.1%
Yambol              62.9%
Pazardzhik        61.4%
Blagoevgrad     55.8%
Veliko Tarnovo  62.2%
Vratsa               61.2%
Gabrovo            55%
Asenovgrad*     58.5%
Vidin                  67.4%
Kazanlak*          58.3%
Kyustendil          66%
Kardzhali            68.1%
Montana            67.7%
Dimitrovgrad*    60.6%
Targovishte        66.8%
Lovech               58.4%
Silistra                59%
Dupnitsa*          60.7%
Svishtov*             52.8%
Razgrad                 63.2%
Gorna Oryahovitsa*  67.2%
Smolyan                  61.8%

The results seem to confirm (with some aberrations due to traditional partisanship and ethnic composition) that larger cities were less supportive of the referendum, though the four largest cities were ironically in exactly the reverse order. I also have a feeling that support for the Belene plant was stronger in northern Bulgaria, which wouldn't be surprising when considering the little infrastructure work that has been done there even by this government which is supposed to be doing little else if one trusts the mass media and the hopes that Belene would be good for their economy.

[Franknburger]

• Coal power plant areas: Maritsa-Istok (what about others?)

The second largest is in Beloslav municipality, near Varna which voted 55.5% "yes". The third largest is in Bobov dol and there are also large ones near Sofia and Pernik. So the rule doesn't seem to hold up very well. Then again, the Maritsa Istok complex is old, polluting and will probably be among the first to go if it ever comes down to closing unnecessary power plants. And without the power plants, the coal mines there will probably have to close as well - their current purpose is to provide coal for the plants. That is probably not the case in the coal regions in western Bulgaria.

I have some more coal area figures:

Bobov dol town  (coal mine & power plant)       64
Babino (coalmine, Bobov dol municipality)        40
Mamlovo (coalmine, Bobov dol municipality)     73
Katrishte coalfield, Kjustendil municipality        75
Gabra (coalmine, Erin Pelin municipality           53

The other coalmines I came across in my internet research are in Bojchinowzi municipality, Montana province, which according to your map voted over 70% yes, and in a Turkish minority area in southwestern Shumen province (also > 70% yes, but that may be due to the Turkish vote).

A pretty obscure picture - some coal areas voted quite strongly against Belene, while others either did not care or, possibly, even would be happy if the mine closed rather sooner than later (e.g. Katrishte, which is open pit and has recently been privatised). It is also interesting that of the two coal mining towns near Bobov dol, one - to the southwest - voted "no", while the other - to the southeast - voted strongly "yes". Am I right to suppose that winds are primarily blowing from the norht-west?

[GMantis]

• Coal power plant areas: Maritsa-Istok (what about others?)

The second largest is in Beloslav municipality, near Varna which voted 55.5% "yes". The third largest is in Bobov dol and there are also large ones near Sofia and Pernik. So the rule doesn't seem to hold up very well. Then again, the Maritsa Istok complex is old, polluting and will probably be among the first to go if it ever comes down to closing unnecessary power plants. And without the power plants, the coal mines there will probably have to close as well - their current purpose is to provide coal for the plants. That is probably not the case in the coal regions in western Bulgaria.

I have some more coal area figures:

Bobov dol town  (coal mine & power plant)       64
Babino (coalmine, Bobov dol municipality)        40
Mamlovo (coalmine, Bobov dol municipality)     73
Katrishte coalfield, Kjustendil municipality        75
Gabra (coalmine, Erin Pelin municipality           53

The other coalmines I came across in my internet research are in Bojchinowzi municipality, Montana province, which according to your map voted over 70% yes, and in a Turkish minority area in southwestern Shumen province (also > 70% yes, but that may be due to the Turkish vote).

A pretty obscure picture - some coal areas voted quite strongly against Belene, while others either did not care or, possibly, even would be happy if the mine closed rather sooner than later (e.g. Katrishte, which is open pit and has recently been privatised). It is also interesting that of the two coal mining towns near Bobov dol, one - to the southwest - voted "no", while the other - to the southeast - voted strongly "yes". Am I right to suppose that winds are primarily blowing from the norht-west?

Yes, in this part of the country:



I wonder if this map was better known there would be such high votes for Belene in Veliko Tarnovo and Ruse provinces...

Regarding the voting behavior of these western towns, most of them apparently supply the power plant in Bobov Dol. So the results are curiously inconsistent. Incidentally the village where the plant administration is actually located (Golemo selo) only had 44% as well. Of course, considering the low turnout there is liable to be random movement affecting the result. Also the political party in power has to be taken into account. For example, the mayor in Radnevo was from GERB, while the mayor in neighboring Galabovo which also includes part of Maritsa Iztok is not.

Incidentally, did you use the text results or the individual precinct reports?