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Author Topic: Let the great boundary rejig commence  (Read 154485 times)
doktorb
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« Reply #850 on: March 22, 2012, 04:00:55 pm »
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It was chin-stroked over at (what was) VoteUK at the time that the BCE had used a computer to draw most of its proposals in double-quick time. Evidence abounded - the decisions to add one ward from certain boroughs with similar/identical names to neighbours; the prominence they gave electorate numbers; the manner in which specific boroughs had been paired; the way in which constituencies did not feature names of population centres which made up the majority of its electorate (See, related to this, Lancaster, a constituency which echoes the predecessor "Lancaster & Wyre". Without a town called 'Wyre'  to point to on a map, how was the computer to know that it should include it within the file name?)

I have ever decreasing doubts that BCE used a programme to draw up the proposals, and then humans to justifty it. Too many cases of mountains, country lanes and River Merseys to call it all "coincidence".
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« Reply #851 on: March 22, 2012, 05:47:38 pm »
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I probably said this before, but do you think a computer came up with "Colne Valley and Skelmanthorpe"?
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« Reply #852 on: March 22, 2012, 05:56:05 pm »
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Some of the suggested names are dire. May as well change my own to Cammel Laird's & Wirral East or something.
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doktorb
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« Reply #853 on: March 22, 2012, 10:07:07 pm »
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I probably said this before, but do you think a computer came up with "Colne Valley and Skelmanthorpe"?

I would say it's a possibility.

Put it this way - if a computer programme had been used with the instructions "Come up with names based on an algorithm using ward electorates", it's highly likely that it would have suggested something like that. See how "Tatton" disappeared - would a computer have known to keep the name "Tatton"?
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« Reply #854 on: March 23, 2012, 01:27:08 pm »
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I probably said this before, but do you think a computer came up with "Colne Valley and Skelmanthorpe"?

I would say it's a possibility.

Put it this way - if a computer programme had been used with the instructions "Come up with names based on an algorithm using ward electorates", it's highly likely that it would have suggested something like that. See how "Tatton" disappeared - would a computer have known to keep the name "Tatton"?

But Skelmanthorpe isn't the name of a ward.  The town of that name is in Denby Dale ward and Denby Dale parish.  Maybe they should have called it "Valleys of Colne, Holme and Denby"?

The other reason I think you're wrong is that they failed to find the Tory and/or Shipley CLP counterproposals.  Both are clearly better than the initial proposals (though both still quite bad in places) and adhere to the rules better, in particular in not crossing the North Yorkshire boundary.  I think if they'd used a computer they'd have found that it was possible to avoid that, and that if they'd realised that they'd have done it.  Their West and South Yorkshire maps look to me like the work of a human desperately trying to draw constituencies in the area without splitting any wards and not really thinking about whether the results make sense.
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« Reply #855 on: April 02, 2012, 02:31:07 pm »
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I'd just like to say, that playing with that for a few hours really shows you what a difficult task the boundary commission have to do, and how awkward the ward population numbers are in some areas to build sensible constiuencies, (having said that, there's no excuse for Billericay and Dunmow)

Certainly, although:

- It was the English Commission's own decision to refuse to split wards.  The other three Commissions all have split at least one, and I'm sure the English Commission would have done a much better job in certain areas (South and West Yorkshire, north Cheshire, around Birmingham, maybe a few others) if they'd been prepared to do that.

- There's no excuse for the mess they made of Cumbria (for example), where the wards are quite small.

I think that either they basically rushed the job because they had 500 constituencies to draw in a short time using tight new rules, or they have an inexcusable lack of knowledge of the geography of certain parts of the country (see Copeland & Windermere or Consett & Barnard Castle).

Quite. I'm still willing to make a small wager that the revised proposals will include at least one split ward. Maybe in Cheshire, where they have a good excuse (the 2010 wards were only temporary) or in Gloucestershire, to keep the centre of Gloucester out of Forest of Dean.
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doktorb
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« Reply #856 on: April 03, 2012, 08:10:32 am »
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And as we all know by now, the second consultation process in England is now........closed.
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« Reply #857 on: June 13, 2012, 03:29:43 pm »
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Welsh consultation responses are now available, including at least three by members of this forum:
http://bcomm-wales.gov.uk/2013review/consulresponse/?lang=en

Labour want a seat stretching from the Great Orme to the Shropshire border.  The Lib Dems and Plaid only seem to want major changes in the south-east.
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« Reply #858 on: June 15, 2012, 11:49:38 am »
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And that's on the Whole Wales page alone!
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« Reply #859 on: June 17, 2012, 06:39:22 am »
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"Aberconwy and North Powys" is a thing of beauty.

Gerrymandered beauty, but still....

Interesting amount of consensus amongst all the parties which aren't Labour, especially in the south-east.
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« Reply #860 on: June 17, 2012, 04:29:12 pm »
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Good to see you back posting on politics, dok.
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http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap - UK local election results since 2002.

There cannot have been a by-election here, as I didn't see an Andrew Teale writeup on it. Or else that by-election's validity should be challenged on the grounds that it was held without Andrew's written approval
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« Reply #861 on: June 17, 2012, 05:19:02 pm »
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Cheers squire

I have written (but failed to keep a copy of) a response to the BCW about the Labour proposal for "Llandudno Beach and the Shropshire marshes" or whatever it is. Complete  bobbins of the highest order.

Just as I think it's easy to guess what the BCE will do in specific regions, it seems to me that the BCW will tinker with the north (maybe just name changes as there's not much call for ward switching or the like from what I've read) and wholesale changes in the Valleys (where everyone considers it necessary to rip up and start again).

There's a great submission from someone getting into a right huff about the proposed Caerfyrddin seat, because he thinks a) nobody will be able to pronounce it, and b) the name would give the impression of it "being a nationalist stronghold".
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« Reply #862 on: June 28, 2012, 08:43:01 am »
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Cheers squire

I have written (but failed to keep a copy of) a response to the BCW about the Labour proposal for "Llandudno Beach and the Shropshire marshes" or whatever it is. Complete  bobbins of the highest order.

Just as I think it's easy to guess what the BCE will do in specific regions, it seems to me that the BCW will tinker with the north (maybe just name changes as there's not much call for ward switching or the like from what I've read) and wholesale changes in the Valleys (where everyone considers it necessary to rip up and start again).

There's a great submission from someone getting into a right huff about the proposed Caerfyrddin seat, because he thinks a) nobody will be able to pronounce it, and b) the name would give the impression of it "being a nationalist stronghold".

I'm not Welsh and I can pronounce it wonderfully. Cair Fumph Rin. And as for being a nationalist stronghold, the notional calculations produced by the Guardian say: Plaid 29% Con 27% Lab 27% Lib Dem 13% UKIP 3% Others 0%
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« Reply #863 on: June 28, 2012, 11:36:51 am »
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I have no doubt, Harry, but you know how people are when they get out their green pens and start scrawling letters around.
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« Reply #864 on: June 30, 2012, 03:28:16 pm »
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Cheers squire

I have written (but failed to keep a copy of) a response to the BCW about the Labour proposal for "Llandudno Beach and the Shropshire marshes" or whatever it is. Complete  bobbins of the highest order.

Just as I think it's easy to guess what the BCE will do in specific regions, it seems to me that the BCW will tinker with the north (maybe just name changes as there's not much call for ward switching or the like from what I've read) and wholesale changes in the Valleys (where everyone considers it necessary to rip up and start again).

There's a great submission from someone getting into a right huff about the proposed Caerfyrddin seat, because he thinks a) nobody will be able to pronounce it, and b) the name would give the impression of it "being a nationalist stronghold".

I'm not Welsh and I can pronounce it wonderfully. Cair Fumph Rin. And as for being a nationalist stronghold, the notional calculations produced by the Guardian say: Plaid 29% Con 27% Lab 27% Lib Dem 13% UKIP 3% Others 0%

The lingua franca of Wales is English. 99.9%, if not 100%, of the people residing in Wales can pronounce "Carmarthen" or "Carmarthenshire" very easily; 100% of the people of the UK (and, almost as a natural consequence, 100% of those elected to the 2015 Parliament) can pronounce those words also. Probably 30% of the Welsh people - if not more - will have difficulty with the artificial "Caerfyrddin", and certaily a greater percentage of the British people at large the same.

The nomenclature of this seat should be obvious; but not to the BCW, a public sector organisation almost certainly wedded to the nonsense dictates of multiculturalism and "respect" [sic] for dead languages and dead cultures, only kept alive at the public expense because most of the Welsh themselves realise it's an irrelevance in a global world.
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« Reply #865 on: June 30, 2012, 03:51:20 pm »
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No one can say Llanelli right, never mind Caerfyrddin.

How do you say it anyway? Care-frid-in?
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« Reply #866 on: June 30, 2012, 09:25:49 pm »
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No one can say Llanelli right, never mind Caerfyrddin.

Significantly more pathetic is the all too frequent inability to pronounce Rhondda correctly.

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How do you say it anyway? Care-frid-in?

Caer can vary but Kare is the usual and Kaier is basically non embarrassing in most places, though runs the risk of sounding perhaps a little bit BBC Pontcanna. Kuh is quite common as well (as in Caernarfon). Anyways, the last syllable is vurthin. That's a thick 'th', of course.
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« Reply #867 on: July 01, 2012, 04:01:49 am »
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What's entertaining is that the English version includes the original m of the Latin era early Celtic form, mutated to a v (f in the spelling) in Welsh. A common process in Welsh, of course, but one wonders if the English form is so old as to predate the mutation (which would mean it can't be much younger than the Norman conquest) or at least coined by speakers aware of the issue (pretty reasonable given the long current false etymology of Caerfyrddin as Merlin's Town/Castle/whatever - caer is of course derived from Latin castrum) . Other than that though, "Carmarthen" is really more of a misspelling than an actual anglicization.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2012, 05:18:30 am by Tsiraki Midou »Logged

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« Reply #868 on: July 03, 2012, 04:33:43 am »
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Stepney, that rant was almost Daily Mail esque!  I ticked off the bingo card at least six old favourites....
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« Reply #869 on: July 04, 2012, 12:29:58 pm »
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Stepney, that rant was almost Daily Mail esque!  I ticked off the bingo card at least six old favourites....

My dear Doktorb, the fact that it is "almost Daily Mail esque", as George Orwell almost said, doesn't mean it's wrong. My own opinions on Welsh were expressed on another place a while back. The only arguments against seemed to be sentimentality; a misguided belief that other, divisive, cultures should be fostered and nurtured; and Welsh nationalism.

If you would like to dispute that the lingua franca of Wales south of, say, Aberystwyth and Montgomery, is English, and that most people south of that line barely speak Welsh, I'd like to hear the argument. If it's that we should artificially foster such a half-dead tongue as Welsh through the nomenclature of seats in the House of Commons, there is a case against it that is almost unanswerable.
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« Reply #870 on: July 04, 2012, 12:51:43 pm »
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The linguistic divide through Wales, such as there is, runs north-south, not east-west. With umpteen excemptions, of course, but Carmarthenshire is one of the most Welsh speaking parts of the planet. (Which doesn't say all that much, of course.) It makes infinitely more sense than "Clwyd".

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« Reply #871 on: July 04, 2012, 01:01:50 pm »
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The only arguments against seemed to be sentimentality; a misguided belief that other, divisive, cultures should be fostered and nurtured; and Welsh nationalism.

To which it could be claimed that the only arguments in favour of your position are consistent only with being a bigoted cretin.

Or the abuse and the arrogance could be dropped and things could be looked at more reasonably. In which case it would seem obvious that attempts to accommodate the Welsh language (so to speak) are quite reasonable. Bilingualism is the order of the day anyway; there are no monoglot communities left now and no prospect of bringing them back. So why get angry?

Quote
If you would like to dispute that the lingua franca of Wales south of, say, Aberystwyth and Montgomery, is English, and that most people south of that line barely speak Welsh, I'd like to hear the argument. If it's that we should artificially foster such a half-dead tongue as Welsh through the nomenclature of seats in the House of Commons, there is a case against it that is almost unanswerable.

A majority of people in Carmarthenshire claim to be able to speak Welsh to some level. There are actually only a handful of wards in the county there were a majority don't understand the language at all, and the only one where it's a large majority is Laugharne (which is south of the Landsker). Parts of Carmarthenshire - the Amman Valley especially - are almost as Welsh speaking as Arfon.

And, of course, most people in Wales who don't speak the language have no problems with Welsh place names.
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« Reply #872 on: July 04, 2012, 01:03:54 pm »
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The only arguments against seemed to be sentimentality; a misguided belief that other, divisive, cultures should be fostered and nurtured; and Welsh nationalism.

To which it could be claimed that the only arguments in favour of your position are consistent only with being a bigoted cretin.

Or the abuse and the arrogance could be dropped and things could be looked at more reasonably. In which case it would seem obvious that attempts to accommodate the Welsh language (so to speak) are quite reasonable. Bilingualism is the order of the day anyway; there are no monoglot communities left now and no prospect of bringing them back. So why get angry?

Quote
If you would like to dispute that the lingua franca of Wales south of, say, Aberystwyth and Montgomery, is English, and that most people south of that line barely speak Welsh, I'd like to hear the argument. If it's that we should artificially foster such a half-dead tongue as Welsh through the nomenclature of seats in the House of Commons, there is a case against it that is almost unanswerable.

A majority of people in Carmarthenshire claim to be able to speak Welsh to some level. There are actually only a handful of wards in the county there were a majority don't understand the language at all, and the only one where it's a large majority is Laugharne (which is south of the Landsker). Parts of Carmarthenshire - the Amman Valley especially - are almost as Welsh speaking as Arfon.

And, of course, most people in Wales who don't speak the language have no problems with Welsh place names.

He's just an idiot, ignore him.
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« Reply #873 on: July 06, 2012, 07:02:03 am »
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The only arguments against seemed to be sentimentality; a misguided belief that other, divisive, cultures should be fostered and nurtured; and Welsh nationalism.

To which it could be claimed that the only arguments in favour of your position are consistent only with being a bigoted cretin.

Or the abuse and the arrogance could be dropped and things could be looked at more reasonably. In which case it would seem obvious that attempts to accommodate the Welsh language (so to speak) are quite reasonable. Bilingualism is the order of the day anyway; there are no monoglot communities left now and no prospect of bringing them back. So why get angry?

Yes, yes. Perhaps only a socialist isolated from realism could in one paragraph accuses his interlocutor of being a 'bigoted cretin' (with a friend below to call me an 'idiot') and then in the next breath make an accusation against the same person of 'abusive arrogance'.

The point I have made here, and in another place where doktorb, you and I are all members, is that Welsh, were it not for public subsidy, would die. And that as such, I believe, public subsidy should be withdrawn and that it should die its natural death. Multiculturalism and polyglotism may be prayed in Welsh's aid, but you forget that I live in the London Borough of Tower Hamlets, where multiculturalism is a canard, a cover word for divisiveness and the religious and ethnic supremacism of a minority group.

I would like the Bangladeshis of the East End to jump into the melting pot with the rest of us; why should I not apply that to the Welsh without being accused of bigotry?

Bringing this subject back to the topic at hand, the seat based on Carmarthen has been called Carmarthen (or Carmarthen Boroughs, or West Carmarthenshire) since Wales got Parliamentary representation - for any passing Americans on this thread that's twice as long as they've been a nation. Why, now, should that be changed? Why should a public body be entrenching and furthering the divisiveness of a non-English tongue when it should be supporting integration? To bring the subject home to me, it is as if, after roughly 130 years of seats in northern Tower Hamlets named after the local communities, the English Commission should elect to rename Bethnal Green and Bow 'Banglatown' for no good reason but to 'recognise' or 'celebrate' diversity or some such.

Are you capable of seeing my point, or is it that all Tories are arrogant bigots and cretins and idiots in your eyes, or what?

And, of course, most people in Wales who don't speak the language have no problems with Welsh place names.

Whereas all the people in Wales speak English and none of them have any problem with English place names, particularly the ones that have been established for half a milennium.
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« Reply #874 on: July 06, 2012, 09:46:20 am »
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The only arguments against seemed to be sentimentality; a misguided belief that other, divisive, cultures should be fostered and nurtured; and Welsh nationalism.

To which it could be claimed that the only arguments in favour of your position are consistent only with being a bigoted cretin.

Or the abuse and the arrogance could be dropped and things could be looked at more reasonably. In which case it would seem obvious that attempts to accommodate the Welsh language (so to speak) are quite reasonable. Bilingualism is the order of the day anyway; there are no monoglot communities left now and no prospect of bringing them back. So why get angry?

Yes, yes. Perhaps only a socialist isolated from realism could in one paragraph accuses his interlocutor of being a 'bigoted cretin' (with a friend below to call me an 'idiot') and then in the next breath make an accusation against the same person of 'abusive arrogance'.
FreedomFighter is just an idiot (or more likely, just a troll), ignore him. You also maybe ought to go read that sentence with "abusive arrogance" in it again, you seem to have misunderstood it.

Along with the terms "multiculturalism" and "integration", of course. Oh well.
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