Polls from the day before the 2000 election

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[zachman]

We have to hope that we have the same type of Election Day surge this year!

[Horus]

Yep, most of the polls then showed Bush leading by an average of 2 or 3, as they do now.

[Silent Hunter]

I'd like to extrapolate back on this to 1996, 1992 and most importantly 1980.

[Erc]

Note that the percentages for Bush are dead-on...

[AuH2O]

Another thing to note is that polls that adjust for party ID are basing their assumptions off the 2000 election.

So if the GOP has, in fact, made gains (which it has), then such an apparent 'surge' is unlikely to occur.

[Signet]

Additionally, just prior to the election in 2000, there was the last-minute press story about Bush's BUI in the 70s.  That gave Gore lots of momentum going into the final hours.

A surge is possible in either direction.  The most important thing to note is that most polls show the candidates within the margin of error.  And polls for a few swing states, such as Ohio, have been jumping back and forth from Bush to Kerry to Bush to....

[© tweed]

One of the reasons Gore did much better than expected in 2000 is because of his top-flight turnout operation.

I don't 'think' Kerry has as good a GOTV operation, considering Donna Brazile does not work for his campaign.  (I have no clue why they didn't hire her)