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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: The Chad Pygmy Marmosets, Apocrypha)
  1976: Ronald Regan vs. Jimmy Carter
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Author Topic: 1976: Ronald Regan vs. Jimmy Carter  (Read 5207 times)
Dancing with Myself
tb75
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« on: May 22, 2010, 06:05:02 pm »

Regan beats Ford at the Republican Convention. Everything stays the same with the Democrats.

You choose the VP's and how it ends up.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2010, 07:12:29 pm »



Carter/Mondale-326 EV
Reagan/Bush-212 EV
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Dancing with Myself
tb75
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« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2010, 07:14:56 pm »



Carter/Mondale-326 EV
Reagan/Bush-212 EV

What happened?
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2010, 07:17:38 pm »


Carter wins by a larger margin since he is able to portray Reagan as an extremist who will cut Medicare and other social programs and who will ignore the needs of poor and middle class Americans. Also, since Americans don't know how incompetent Carter is and since he apepars to be a nice guy (after Watergate and all), he wins. I have a feeling Reagan would be unable to effectively respond to Carter's attacks in 1976, in contrast to 1980 when people already knew how incompetent Carter was. The PV would be about 51-47% for Carter.
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redcommander
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« Reply #4 on: May 22, 2010, 07:17:50 pm »



Carter/Mondale-326 EV
Reagan/Bush-212 EV

In the political environment of that day, Vermont and New Hampshire probably would not be won by Jimmy Carter. Neither would Connecticut and Maine probably due to Bush being on the ticket.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #5 on: May 22, 2010, 07:27:42 pm »



Carter/Mondale-326 EV
Reagan/Bush-212 EV

In the political environment of that day, Vermont and New Hampshire probably would not be won by Jimmy Carter. Neither would Connecticut and Maine probably due to Bush being on the ticket.

The Northeast was composed of mostly liberal states, even back then. Ford was a moderate/liberal Republican, and thus he did so well there. I'm not sure that Reagan would ahve done nearly as well there in 1976 since he was much more conservative than Ford (1980 was a different matter due to Carter's incompetence). I don't think Bush Sr. would ahve had too mcuh impact on the ticket's chances in New England since he did not live there for a long time.
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Dancing with Myself
tb75
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« Reply #6 on: May 22, 2010, 09:43:59 pm »



Reagan/Bush-330
Carter/Mondale-208

Reagan chooses Bush due to his associations with The Republican Bosses. Carter tries to make it look like Regan as an extreme Conservative, but Reagan paints carter as an Incompetent one term Governor who struggled to get anything done.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #7 on: May 22, 2010, 10:30:18 pm »



Reagan/Bush-330
Carter/Mondale-208

Reagan chooses Bush due to his associations with The Republican Bosses. Carter tries to make it look like Regan as an extreme Conservative, but Reagan paints carter as an Incompetent one term Governor who struggled to get anything done.

Carrter really wasn't incompetent as Georgia Governor. Only as President. And I think Carter's arguments would ahve much more merit since the U.S. had plenty of liberal Presidents between 1933 and 1980, but had no conservative Presidents during that time (the last conservative President before 1980 was Hoover, so Carter could always tie Reagan to him).
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Dancing with Myself
tb75
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« Reply #8 on: May 22, 2010, 10:42:48 pm »



Reagan/Bush-330
Carter/Mondale-208

Reagan chooses Bush due to his associations with The Republican Bosses. Carter tries to make it look like Regan as an extreme Conservative, but Reagan paints carter as an Incompetent one term Governor who struggled to get anything done.

Carrter really wasn't incompetent as Georgia Governor. Only as President. And I think Carter's arguments would ahve much more merit since the U.S. had plenty of liberal Presidents between 1933 and 1980, but had no conservative Presidents during that time (the last conservative President before 1980 was Hoover, so Carter could always tie Reagan to him).

BUT, Hoover is completely different than Reagan. Reagan would attack carter for making useless attacks
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« Reply #9 on: May 22, 2010, 11:13:00 pm »



Reagan/Bush-330
Carter/Mondale-208

Reagan chooses Bush due to his associations with The Republican Bosses. Carter tries to make it look like Regan as an extreme Conservative, but Reagan paints carter as an Incompetent one term Governor who struggled to get anything done.

Carrter really wasn't incompetent as Georgia Governor. Only as President. And I think Carter's arguments would ahve much more merit since the U.S. had plenty of liberal Presidents between 1933 and 1980, but had no conservative Presidents during that time (the last conservative President before 1980 was Hoover, so Carter could always tie Reagan to him).

BUT, Hoover is completely different than Reagan. Reagan would attack carter for making useless attacks

No. Ideologically Hoover and Reagan were pretty similar, except for the fact that Reagan supported Social Security and Medicare (after he was against it).
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Derek
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« Reply #10 on: May 23, 2010, 12:02:15 am »



Reagan/Bush-330
Carter/Mondale-208

Reagan chooses Bush due to his associations with The Republican Bosses. Carter tries to make it look like Regan as an extreme Conservative, but Reagan paints carter as an Incompetent one term Governor who struggled to get anything done.

Carrter really wasn't incompetent as Georgia Governor. Only as President. And I think Carter's arguments would ahve much more merit since the U.S. had plenty of liberal Presidents between 1933 and 1980, but had no conservative Presidents during that time (the last conservative President before 1980 was Hoover, so Carter could always tie Reagan to him).

That looks a bit different from your map above. Did you change your mind? How do both candidates finish in the 30's in Texas?
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Bo
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« Reply #11 on: May 23, 2010, 12:28:17 am »



Reagan/Bush-330
Carter/Mondale-208

Reagan chooses Bush due to his associations with The Republican Bosses. Carter tries to make it look like Regan as an extreme Conservative, but Reagan paints carter as an Incompetent one term Governor who struggled to get anything done.

Carrter really wasn't incompetent as Georgia Governor. Only as President. And I think Carter's arguments would ahve much more merit since the U.S. had plenty of liberal Presidents between 1933 and 1980, but had no conservative Presidents during that time (the last conservative President before 1980 was Hoover, so Carter could always tie Reagan to him).

That looks a bit different from your map above. Did you change your mind? How do both candidates finish in the 30's in Texas?

This isn't my map. It's tb75's map. My map was the first one in this thread.
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Derek
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« Reply #12 on: May 23, 2010, 08:46:39 pm »



Reagan/Bush-330
Carter/Mondale-208

Reagan chooses Bush due to his associations with The Republican Bosses. Carter tries to make it look like Regan as an extreme Conservative, but Reagan paints carter as an Incompetent one term Governor who struggled to get anything done.

Carrter really wasn't incompetent as Georgia Governor. Only as President. And I think Carter's arguments would ahve much more merit since the U.S. had plenty of liberal Presidents between 1933 and 1980, but had no conservative Presidents during that time (the last conservative President before 1980 was Hoover, so Carter could always tie Reagan to him).

That looks a bit different from your map above. Did you change your mind? How do both candidates finish in the 30's in Texas?

This isn't my map. It's tb75's map. My map was the first one in this thread.

Oh my mistake, but Reagan would've won a close race.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #13 on: May 23, 2010, 10:15:24 pm »



Reagan/Bush-330
Carter/Mondale-208

Reagan chooses Bush due to his associations with The Republican Bosses. Carter tries to make it look like Regan as an extreme Conservative, but Reagan paints carter as an Incompetent one term Governor who struggled to get anything done.

Carrter really wasn't incompetent as Georgia Governor. Only as President. And I think Carter's arguments would ahve much more merit since the U.S. had plenty of liberal Presidents between 1933 and 1980, but had no conservative Presidents during that time (the last conservative President before 1980 was Hoover, so Carter could always tie Reagan to him).

That looks a bit different from your map above. Did you change your mind? How do both candidates finish in the 30's in Texas?

This isn't my map. It's tb75's map. My map was the first one in this thread.

Oh my mistake, but Reagan would've won a close race.

In your opinion. I think Carter wins (by a larger margin than RL) due to the reasons I listed above.
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yougo1000
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« Reply #14 on: May 24, 2010, 07:58:22 am »

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Thomas D
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« Reply #15 on: May 31, 2010, 01:04:20 pm »



Reagan does better in the south. Not as well in the Midwest. EV total not that different from RL

Carter-294-244
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Oakvale
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« Reply #16 on: May 31, 2010, 05:19:55 pm »



I don't know if you realise how incredibly lucky Ronald Reagan was that he could run for President in the perfect storm that was the election of 1980, and how utterly unelectable Reagan would be without that ideal set of circumstances.

Pretty much any credible Democrat wins in a landslide against Reagan, who's easily painted as a far-right extremist. Bear in mind, even in 1980 it was close up until Election Day because of Reagan, not in spite of him. The nation was wary of his Goldwater-with-a-smile politics.

Indiana's really iffy, and there's not a chance in hell Reagan's winning much of what Moderate Hero (tm) Gerald Ford won outside of his western base.

434 - 104.

PS: Although Oklahoma is one of the most Republican states in the country on a national level today, IIRC Carter lost it relatively narrowly in 1976. I could be wrong, though, so feel free to subtract 8 electoral votes as you please.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #17 on: May 31, 2010, 05:56:44 pm »



366-172
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President Mitt
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« Reply #18 on: May 31, 2010, 06:02:41 pm »



Jimmy Carter: 358

Ronald Reagan: 180
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cpeeks
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« Reply #19 on: June 15, 2010, 12:32:35 am »

Ya Carter still had a lead going into the final weekend, if they hadnt had that late debate where Reagan asked are you better off than you were 4 years ago Carter gets re-elected.
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Derek
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« Reply #20 on: June 15, 2010, 01:47:14 am »

http://

I would've voted for Reagan over Ford in the primaries if you can believe it or not.
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cpeeks
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« Reply #21 on: June 15, 2010, 01:49:54 am »

Reagan would have lost that election handily to Carter.
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Derek
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« Reply #22 on: June 15, 2010, 01:50:35 am »

Reagan would have lost that election handily to Carter.

They thought that in 1980 too.
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Bo
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« Reply #23 on: June 15, 2010, 12:26:26 pm »

Reagan would have lost that election handily to Carter.

They thought that in 1980 too.

1980 was a different political environment than 1976.
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cpeeks
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« Reply #24 on: June 16, 2010, 08:22:34 pm »

Reagan would have lost that election handily to Carter.

They thought that in 1980 too.

1980 was a different political environment than 1976.

LOL well Carter had like an 8 point lead going down the stretch with 30% approval ratings and then he agreed to a debate a week before the election and Reagan said are you better off than you were 4 years ago, and Carters cheif strategist said that weekend it all crashed his internal polls went from being up by 5 points to down by 6. Bottom line Carter doesnt have that debate hes reelected and we never hear of the Bush's and the so called moral majority again. And  we have a huge surplus and a balanced budged and no illegal wars.
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