ARG March poll has Kerry leading Bush 48-42

[Gustaf]

yes but the premise of your post is that currently the polls are showing a dead heat, when if you look at all the polls and especially focus on likely voters there is clearly a current Kerry lead right now. I am not saying that this will last until the election, but right now Kerry has the edge.

Actually, there was no "premise" of any kind...

I provide links to 5 major polls that show the race between even and Bush +2, 1 link that Showed Kerry at +3, and three links that show Kerry +6 to +11

There was no "conclusion" or indeed even a comment, of any kind...  Please point to the part of my post that suggested a premise of some kind....

The ARG (and NPR?) poll, BTW, were Registered, as opposed to likely voters, and the GOP candidate typically (but certainly not always) does 4 points or so better among Likely voters than registered voters.

The actual explanation of the group of 5 polls showing a dead heat, while the other group of 4 polls showing a mid/high single digit lead for Kerry is actually rather simple.

The five polls showing a dead heat all invoke some variation of a constained turnout model, while the other four which show a Kerry lead do not.  

The unconstrained turnout models used by the 4 pro-Kerry polls naturally reflects an energized Democratic base that has just nominated it's candidate and enjoyed the limelight for several months now...

For what little it's worth, I think Kerry is a few points up on Bush right now, however I also think Bush's base support is a lot firmer than Kerry's. (I think my prediction map has a very modest Kerry leads at this point if you count the leaning states)

 The next 6 weeks or so will be critical to see if Kerry can solidify his leaners, or if Bush can pry them loose...

The NPR poll was likely voters, 'all participants were registered voters, who voted or were ineligible to vote in the 2000 presidential election or voted in the 2002 Congressional elections and indicated that they were 'certain' or 'almost certain' to vote in 2004'.

Thank-you - I have not looked at the NPR poll in any detail yet.

I devoted an entire thread for it...you could look at that one for some of the stats I found interesting.

I also found some of their internal findings interesting. However, I didn't find your thread. Can you point me in the right direction?

Sure, threads get buried quickly here...here you go:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?board=5;action=display;threadid=1090

[Reaganfan]

Be worried about New Hampshire.

[opebo]

Not anymore, now polls show Kerry trailing by 5 points.

Where do you see this?

[Gustaf]

I dunno why I'm worried about NJ... I shouldn't be...

The last NJ poll gives Kerry leading Bush by only 2 points: 46-44.

Though that was in mid-November...

[zachman]

The polls in November mean diddly squat.

[Gustaf]

The polls in November mean diddly squat.

I know, I just found that fact funny...

[angus]

Not anymore, now polls show Kerry trailing by 5 points.

Where do you see this?

The Onion.

[Ben.]

The polls in November mean diddly squat.

To be fair Polls untill after the conventions mean squat...but being political junckies we will of course be pouring over them for mounths to come...Kerry simply needs to prevent Bush from defining him as an effiaet, NorthEastern Liberal and so far he's doing ok...IMHO the fact it tha asside from his immediate reaction to the 9/11 attacks Bush has very little to recomend him in November....  

[muon2]

yes but the premise of your post is that currently the polls are showing a dead heat, when if you look at all the polls and especially focus on likely voters there is clearly a current Kerry lead right now. I am not saying that this will last until the election, but right now Kerry has the edge.

Actually, there was no "premise" of any kind...

I provide links to 5 major polls that show the race between even and Bush +2, 1 link that Showed Kerry at +3, and three links that show Kerry +6 to +11

There was no "conclusion" or indeed even a comment, of any kind...  Please point to the part of my post that suggested a premise of some kind....

The ARG (and NPR?) poll, BTW, were Registered, as opposed to likely voters, and the GOP candidate typically (but certainly not always) does 4 points or so better among Likely voters than registered voters.

The actual explanation of the group of 5 polls showing a dead heat, while the other group of 4 polls showing a mid/high single digit lead for Kerry is actually rather simple.

The five polls showing a dead heat all invoke some variation of a constained turnout model, while the other four which show a Kerry lead do not.  

The unconstrained turnout models used by the 4 pro-Kerry polls naturally reflects an energized Democratic base that has just nominated it's candidate and enjoyed the limelight for several months now...

For what little it's worth, I think Kerry is a few points up on Bush right now, however I also think Bush's base support is a lot firmer than Kerry's. (I think my prediction map has a very modest Kerry leads at this point if you count the leaning states)

 The next 6 weeks or so will be critical to see if Kerry can solidify his leaners, or if Bush can pry them loose...

The NPR poll was likely voters, 'all participants were registered voters, who voted or were ineligible to vote in the 2000 presidential election or voted in the 2002 Congressional elections and indicated that they were 'certain' or 'almost certain' to vote in 2004'.

Thank-you - I have not looked at the NPR poll in any detail yet.

I devoted an entire thread for it...you could look at that one for some of the stats I found interesting.

I also found some of their internal findings interesting. However, I didn't find your thread. Can you point me in the right direction?

Sure, threads get buried quickly here...here you go:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?board=5;action=display;threadid=1090

Thanks.

[Gustaf]

yes but the premise of your post is that currently the polls are showing a dead heat, when if you look at all the polls and especially focus on likely voters there is clearly a current Kerry lead right now. I am not saying that this will last until the election, but right now Kerry has the edge.

Actually, there was no "premise" of any kind...

I provide links to 5 major polls that show the race between even and Bush +2, 1 link that Showed Kerry at +3, and three links that show Kerry +6 to +11

There was no "conclusion" or indeed even a comment, of any kind...  Please point to the part of my post that suggested a premise of some kind....

The ARG (and NPR?) poll, BTW, were Registered, as opposed to likely voters, and the GOP candidate typically (but certainly not always) does 4 points or so better among Likely voters than registered voters.

The actual explanation of the group of 5 polls showing a dead heat, while the other group of 4 polls showing a mid/high single digit lead for Kerry is actually rather simple.

The five polls showing a dead heat all invoke some variation of a constained turnout model, while the other four which show a Kerry lead do not.  

The unconstrained turnout models used by the 4 pro-Kerry polls naturally reflects an energized Democratic base that has just nominated it's candidate and enjoyed the limelight for several months now...

For what little it's worth, I think Kerry is a few points up on Bush right now, however I also think Bush's base support is a lot firmer than Kerry's. (I think my prediction map has a very modest Kerry leads at this point if you count the leaning states)

 The next 6 weeks or so will be critical to see if Kerry can solidify his leaners, or if Bush can pry them loose...

The NPR poll was likely voters, 'all participants were registered voters, who voted or were ineligible to vote in the 2000 presidential election or voted in the 2002 Congressional elections and indicated that they were 'certain' or 'almost certain' to vote in 2004'.

Thank-you - I have not looked at the NPR poll in any detail yet.

I devoted an entire thread for it...you could look at that one for some of the stats I found interesting.

I also found some of their internal findings interesting. However, I didn't find your thread. Can you point me in the right direction?

Sure, threads get buried quickly here...here you go:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?board=5;action=display;threadid=1090

Thanks.

No problem.