Revised Predictions...?

[ilikeverin]

Minnesota  
Gore: 47.91%
Bush: 45.50%
Nader: 5.20%

The events of 2002 would suggest that the state was trending dramatically to the GOP, I am not so sure the senate election was closer than it seemed and the Democrats committed a number of blunders not least the “Wellstone Memorial” that alienated voters (I really feel sorry that Mondale lost, would have been great to have him back in the senate) and added to this in the Gubernational race the Republicans only really won thanks in large part to the independent liberal candidacy of Timothy Penny who gained 16% which threw the election to the GOP. Taking into account these factors the 2002 results no longer seem to denote a radical shift in MN leanings and combined with the massive Nader vote (really a Le Duke vote IMHO) last time which will largely vote for Kerry this time around should make MN a definite Dem leaning state and I would expect the Dem majority to be much stronger than last time. And finally as with Oregon environmental issues are very important in MN and Bush just cant run on his handling of the environment and there is a definite risk that liberal republicans in the state who voted for Bush in 2000 and see the environment as a big issue might well stay home or even vote for the Libertarians.  

I don't think Minnesota is trending GOP.  I think it's trending centrist.

The difference in votes between Mondale & Coleman was 1%.  Don't remind me about the Wellstone Memorial gaffe.  The memorial was going along fine... there was no politics at all... then disaster struck.  One of Wellstone's sons took the stage.  Let's just say his speech caused The Body to walk out of the Metrodome in disgust...

Tim Penny->Independence Party
Independence Party->Reform Party of Minnesota (formerly)

I'm not sure about his views, though.

And WHY DOES EVERYONE INSIST THAT IT WAS THE LADUKE FACTOR?  I had never heard of her.  She never served in any public office (IIRC).  I think it's the Ventura Factor.  People 'got used' to voting for a 3rd party.  They also agreed with the Green Party positions, most notably the environment (it's big here).  

Another big issue is education, as Minnesota has one of the best public school systems in the country.  Thus, you don't hear much of anything about cutting education funding.  Last year, we had a 4.56 billion dollar budget deficit.

All in all, I would give Minnesota to Kerry.  But that's just me

[ilikeverin]

I don't see hwo you can say MN isn't trending GOP, it went from being one of the most liberal states in the union (the only state to go dem in 1984), to being a near tossup this year.  If bush does win Minnesota, it will be the first time that has happened since Nixon won it in 1972.

It's moving right, which isn't saying much.  It's just going centrist.  I don't see any signs of it moving to the right site of the spectrum


DFL|-----------|-----------|GOP
       ^         ^ ^

It was at the left, it's now towards the middle.  I can't see it going any more right of the 3rd arrow, which, when crossed, would mean it's trending GOP.

[ilikeverin]

Do you see Minnesota as going for Kerry or Bush, based on crossovers in your area, ilikeverin?

Kerry.  There are probably a few liberal Republicans here, and also disenfranchised Nader voters who now hate Bush with a vengeance!  (like me )

[ilikeverin]

Will the Nader vote, vote for Nader or Kerry?

Some diehards will vote for Nader, but the soccer moms (I saw quite a few of them at the Nader rally I went to!) will probably vote Kerry.

[ilikeverin]

Influence them to vote for Kerry, we need to work to get out the vote.

Well, I didn't know them personally... just my mom

The rally was huge, though, so I couldn't see everyone.  The Target Center was getting pretty full...

[ilikeverin]

As for Minnesota, the self-destruction of the DFL has left the Democrats as lame ducks in large areas Minnesota.  Also, as the Almanac state 'If the major metro movement toward the Democrats in the 1990's so visible on the coasts was was less visible in Minnesota, the counter vailing rural movement toward Republicans was even more prominent.  The result is that Minnesota must been counted as very competitive in the next CLOSE presidential race'.  In the next CLOSE presidential race, MN must be counted as competitive.  This means that if Bush wins the PV by more than say, 3% chances are that he will win Minnesota and I would have to say that even if Bush losses the race, he still has a 40% chance of carrying Minnesota.  If Bush wins, he will win Minnesota.

The DFL is self-destructing?

That's news to me.