Revised Predictions...?

[zachman]

I agree Iowa and NM are fairly likely to switching to Bush, but Wisconsin will come after Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and perhaps Oregon depending on how Nader does. Wisconsin had a high turnout primary, and they hate Bush more than they did in 2000. I disagree with the changes. But NM, is about the most likely to change.

[zachman]

Its still has a bias to the left. 53-46.5 with Nader and Buccanan included.

[zachman]

Do you see Minnesota as going for Kerry or Bush, based on crossovers in your area, ilikeverin?

[zachman]

Will the Nader vote, vote for Nader or Kerry?

[zachman]

Influence them to vote for Kerry, we need to work to get out the vote.

[zachman]

Here  are  the only possible combinations I find likely for the upper midwest:

Bush wins all 3 (Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota)
Bush wins Minnesota and Iowa
Kerry wins Wisconsin and Minnesota
Kerry wins all three


Iowa has the highest likelihood of voting for Bush, and Wisconsin has the least. I think Vorlon's prediction of Iowa and Wisconsin for Bush and Minnesota for Kerry will not happen.

[zachman]

Younger voters particularly the 25 and under strata are more democratic. This is not true in the bible belt, and the small isolated states out west.

I'm reading this article right now.
http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/99aug/9908genx2.htm

[zachman]

Kids with parents from an Ivy league school in my district have Republican parents. Kids who go on an excess of vacations, and go to Patriots games have Republican parents. I know that is not a fair litmus test, but here it is the educates versud the overwealthy.

[zachman]

I find it so annoying that the major parties have made deals with other parties, and must still recognize themselves as still part of the farmers labor party. ND has the Democratic Non-Partisan League. I don't see how you can name a political party as a non-partisan league. Oh well, it hasn't had much success.