Revised Predictions...?

[GOPhound]

I have moved Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Iowa to Bush.  I think Kerry's glow is starting to fade as the primaries have ended and Bush is now starting to hit back and run campaign ads.  I think Bush has the following in his favor:

-The Iraq situation has stabilized and democracy is setting in.  It will be difficult for Kerry to attack him here.

-Terrorist attacks will continue to happen.  The Bush team will hammer the point home that we need a president who understands this is a war, not a law enforcement issue.

-The economy is fundamentally in good shape and job growth is slowly but steadily taking place.  We are in the beginning stages of long, sustained expansion.

-I believe people are already becoming disenchanted with Kerry.  Even hard core Liberals that I know don't like the guy.  He's not a good stump speaker, always has a scowl on his face, offers no optimism.  This will hurt him down the stretch as people compare him to Bush.  Edwards is a far superior campaigner.  

-Cash.  Bush cannot be matched here.  After Labor Day he is going to literally carpet bomb the airwaves.  

I am becoming increasingly optimistic that Bush has taken their best shot and is still standing.  Kerry will get a bump when he picks his VP but it will fade I think.

In the next few weeks if we see polls in PA, OH, IA, WI,NM,FL,WV placing Bush within the margin of error, I think Kerry will lose in November barring unforseen circumstances.  The polls showing Bush basically tied in PA at this point should scare Kerry big time.