Revised Predictions...? (user search)
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  Revised Predictions...? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Revised Predictions...?  (Read 5067 times)
Gustaf
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Posts: 29,779


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« on: March 14, 2004, 08:09:48 AM »

I change my predictions all the time... Tongue
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Gustaf
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Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,779


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #1 on: March 14, 2004, 10:06:05 AM »

Though all Nader voters won't go to Kerry, etc most will. Look at the match-up polls that are done where people are asked how they would vote in a Kerry-Bush race and then in a Kerry-Bush-Nader race.
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Gustaf
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Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,779


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2004, 12:14:41 PM »

I predicted in November 2003 that Bush would win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, and Iowa, and nothing has changed since then to change my mind. The dynamics of the race have essentially stayed the same since the 2002 elections.

I don't expect anything to change until November. The world has become so predictable.

Don't change 'em.  That's my game.  Vorlon's game is more serious, though.  Following the polls and such.  I respect that.  Glad to see that the march13th update finally materialized.  But it's chickensheet, because you left three of them blank.  I this material won't merit an A.

"I'm just being honest."
        --Outkast


Ok... I've called em' all.. happy now..? Smiley

You keep changing it all the time...
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,779


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #3 on: March 14, 2004, 02:33:18 PM »

I predicted in November 2003 that Bush would win Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, and Iowa, and nothing has changed since then to change my mind. The dynamics of the race have essentially stayed the same since the 2002 elections.

I don't expect anything to change until November. The world has become so predictable.

Don't change 'em.  That's my game.  Vorlon's game is more serious, though.  Following the polls and such.  I respect that.  Glad to see that the march13th update finally materialized.  But it's chickensheet, because you left three of them blank.  I this material won't merit an A.

"I'm just being honest."
        --Outkast


Ok... I've called em' all.. happy now..? Smiley

You keep changing it all the time...

Sorry Gustaf I think you misinterpreted.  Vorlon did not.  Change is no problem.  Some are changers some aren't.

Huh

I just pointed out that he's flipped his calls around some. H ehad Kerry winning a few days ago, and now he hasn't.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,779


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2004, 03:11:45 PM »

I don't see hwo you can say MN isn't trending GOP, it went from being one of the most liberal states in the union (the only state to go dem in 1984), to being a near tossup this year.  If bush does win Minnesota, it will be the first time that has happened since Nixon won it in 1972.

Well, to be fair it was Mondale's home state in 1984, but still, you have a point. It voted for Humphrey in 1968 as well.
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,779


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #5 on: March 14, 2004, 03:12:48 PM »

I don't see hwo you can say MN isn't trending GOP, it went from being one of the most liberal states in the union (the only state to go dem in 1984), to being a near tossup this year.  If bush does win Minnesota, it will be the first time that has happened since Nixon won it in 1972.

It eas Mondale home state


I just said that. Smiley
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,779


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #6 on: March 14, 2004, 03:25:09 PM »

I don't see hwo you can say MN isn't trending GOP, it went from being one of the most liberal states in the union (the only state to go dem in 1984), to being a near tossup this year.  If bush does win Minnesota, it will be the first time that has happened since Nixon won it in 1972.

It eas Mondale home state


I just said that. Smiley

when I post it wasn't there. but you beat me

Just like I beat you on the polls! Cheesy Wink
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Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,779


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

« Reply #7 on: March 14, 2004, 05:19:22 PM »

Quote
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Yes, I did change my map a bit, that would be why they are called "revised" predictions.

Bush has firmed up a lot in the underlying numbers this week, so I have taken it from a very narrow Kerry win to a very narrow Bush win...

There are realy about 10 states that are too close to call right now...

Next week, I'll likely change back... Smiley

Enjoy & have a great day!

I was only kidding, I understand that you revised your map, etc. I am going to bed, so good night... Tongue
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