Revised Predictions...?

[Ben.]

vorlon:  im quite curious as to why you have nm, wisc, and iowa in the gop category?

you seem to know a lot about polling.  where/how did you gain your knowledge?

New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Iowa were amazingly close in 2000, so flipping them to Bush requires only a very modest change.

Iowa won by Gore by 4,144 votes
Wisconsin   won by Gore by 5,708 votes
New Mexico won by Gore by 366 votes.

We are, after all, only talking about 10,000 total votes...

Oregon was also razor thin - Gore won by 6,765 votes

Right now, the polls are quite distorted.

Back in 1993 when the Motor Voter act got passed, doing a poll really changed a great deal.  It used to be that if somebody took the effort to go down to the courthouse to register, they usually ended up voting...

With "motor voter" a very high % of people are "registered" but only about 50ish % actually do vote.

To make your polling accurate you thus have to ask a whole bunch of "screening" questions to weed out those who will vote from those who don't.

The questions vary a great deal from polling firm to polling firm, but typically ask things like "How closely how have been paying attention to the race", "how excited are you are about your candidate", etc...

Right now, Democrats are on a "high" they have just selected a candidate, had tons of media coverage, etc...  

because of this there are more "excited" democrats than Republicans, hence more "likely" democrat voters (according to polllsters), hence better poll numbers for Kerry..

A month from now when things settle down, Bush should be up 3-5 points from what I see in the current polls..

Bush at +3 has 3 or 4 states he VERY narrowly lost in 2000 shift to his column..

Vorlon I’m going to have to quibble with your  calling of these states for while these states you mention where close that does not mean they will be so this time around, not least because Bush in 2004 is not the same candidate as Bush in 2000, Kerry is not Gore and Nader is not so much a factor….but I digress here’s my assessment of the states you mention plus NM…

Iowa
Gore: 48.54%
Bush: 48.22%
Nader: 2.23%

IMHO, Iowa is the most likely Bush pickup after New Mexico the closeness of the result last time and a number of other factors give Bush an edge but not a commanding advantage…however the state certainly leans to the GOP this time around.  

Minnesota  
Gore: 47.91%
Bush: 45.50%
Nader: 5.20%

The events of 2002 would suggest that the state was trending dramatically to the GOP, I am not so sure the senate election was closer than it seemed and the Democrats committed a number of blunders not least the “Wellstone Memorial” that alienated voters (I really feel sorry that Mondale lost, would have been great to have him back in the senate) and added to this in the Gubernational race the Republicans only really won thanks in large part to the independent liberal candidacy of Timothy Penny who gained 16% which threw the election to the GOP. Taking into account these factors the 2002 results no longer seem to denote a radical shift in MN leanings and combined with the massive Nader vote (really a Le Duke vote IMHO) last time which will largely vote for Kerry this time around should make MN a definite Dem leaning state and I would expect the Dem majority to be much stronger than last time. And finally as with Oregon environmental issues are very important in MN and Bush just cant run on his handling of the environment and there is a definite risk that liberal republicans in the state who voted for Bush in 2000 and see the environment as a big issue might well stay home or even vote for the Libertarians.  
         
Wisconsin:
Gore: 47.83%
Bush: 47.61%
Nader: 3.62%

Not a Massive Nader vote but sufficient to suggest that Nader’s supporters would have made Gore much safer in the state, having said that Buchanan’s rather pitiful showing if transferred to Bush would have won the state for Bush (had Nader still run). Looking at the 2002 results the Dems took the Governorship and still dominate the congressional delegation as was shown in their primary the local party appears highly energised and while the state could go either way I would argue that it strongly leans to the Dems.  

Oregon:
Gore: 46.96%
Bush: 46.52%
Nader: 5.04%

Looking at the closeness between Gore’s and Bush’s voter totals it may seem absurd when I say I have no worries that the Dems will carry the state, however it is important to remember that Oregon is a state where environmental issues have a high priority and as in MN Bush cannot compete when it comes to environmental issues and combine this with the likelihood that Nader’s vote this time will be much smaller than in 2000 and further more that Oregon’s elected officals are overwhelmingly democratic (only one Republican senator and representative) and that a high voter turnout in the urban conurbations such as Portland, Salem and Newport all of which tend democratic is very likely I would be very surprised where Bush to win the state.

New Mexico:

Gore: 47.91%
Bush: 47.85%
Nader: 3.55%        

Bush’s policy on immigrations (and a use the word policy lightly here) together with his assiduous courting of the Hispanic vote should help gain this state however I would imagine that it will be once again close if not very close as the 3.5% who voted Nader may very well vote for Kerry this time around. However it must be said that at this point NM is leaning GOP as much as WI or MN are leaning to the Dems but probably more than IA is leaning to Bush (but I still expect both IA and NM in the end to go over to the GOP).  

[Ben.]

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Ok, we agree on Iowa and New Mexico, we agree they lean ever so slightly to the GOP...  

I too also still have MInnesota leaning to the Dems, so we agree there as well..

I have Oregon as a toss up on my map.  

Yes Oregon has a very strong environmental movement, but they ALSO have a lot of (unemployed) forrestry workers.  Bush has been (semi) protectionist in this area during the softwood lumber dispute with Canada. - I think that will help Bush.

Other than Portland/Eugene Oregon is still pretty small town and rural (it does border Idaho...)  So I think Bush's Gay Marriage/Military/War/9-11 cards will play well in the non-Portland/Oregon areas..

Wisconsin is also interesesting.

The last so called "farm Bill" had burried amid it's $180 billion of waste a great deal of help for Wiscosin in terms of Dairy price supports etc, I think this may buy Bush enough votes...  Similar to Oregon/Iowas I think Bush gets a bit of a bump rural from Gay Marriage/Military/War/9-11

Your fundemental assumption, however, is that all Nader support will magically melt away and that all of it will go to Kerry.

Here is a link to an article, admittedly written by a green party person, that tracked Nader in the polls versus Gore during 2000, and it found that a drop in Nader support DID NOT correlate to a rise in Gore support...

http://prorev.com/green2000.htm

I haven't done any more than scan this article so I offer no firm opinion on it, but it is worth a look....

Here's something that you have to consider about PA and MN.  Older voters in both of these states treand heavily Democratic.  They are the New Deal generation,  never voted Republican in thier lives.  How many of these people have died since 2000?  Quite a few I'd be willing to bet.  In the mean time, young voters in both of these states treand heavily Republican.  That's bound to make a diffence in this election.

I really don’t think that younger voters in either to these two states as a rule tend heavily towards the GOP if you look at the elected officials from both of these states (MN and PA) they are generally moderates from both party’s (Santorum and Wellstone being the exceptions)…as a rule I’d say that the DNC has an advantage amongst younger voters as a whole however amongst those who are actively involved in politics perhaps the GOP does have an advantage however I doubt it…. Sadly I cannot find any break down of either state’s recent voting to see how younger voters are actually voting but despite this I find it unlikely that the younger generation “trends heavily” towards the GOP in recent years it is true that the decline in the popularity of the GOP amongst younger voters has indeed been reversed however this does not translate into these voters as a whole trends strongly to the GOP…I find it more likely that in states such as PA, MI and MN the Dem vote in November will actually increase as blue-collar workers who have suffered under Bush and especially steel workers (who where a significant factor in Bush’s support in PA, OH, WV and MI) will vote for Kerry while many moderates who voted for Bush as a “compassionate conservative” may well vote for the Dems this time around and of course it is important not to forget that most (and I would imagine that it will be most) of the Nader Supporters from 2000 will further bolster Kerry by voting Dem this time around…so far from these states young populations tipping the advantage to the GOP I would imagine these states will return as even more strongly Dem than in 2000….

[Ben.]

Here are my predictions for some of the close states:

Minnesota will be a dead heat again, but I'm predicting 2004 to be the last presidential election for the next few year to go Democrat.  Kerry wins, barely.  Kerry also wins Oregon, again barely, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.

Bush wins Iowa, New Mexico, Florida, and Ohio.  I also think Bush will barely win Pennsylvania, but it'll be close.  I think Bush would lose Pa if Kerry (or someone else like him--Dean) was not the Dem nominee.

Everything depends on how quickly Bush can label Kerry as just another Massachusetts liberal.  Once he does that, and the public catches on to it, Kerry's numbers will drop.

Didn’t the Republicans constantly try and tarr Clinton as a “Liberal”…hum…didn’t seem to work did it?...and remember that Clinton’s Platform in 1992 was fairly liberal http://gopher.udel.edu/htr/Psc105/Texts/demoplat.html#2 I think it unlikely that the old “liberal Democrat” slur will have little effect this time around as it is seen by many as something that no longer instils fear and dread in peoples hearts…I also think it highly unlikely that PA will swing to the GOP…check my past post for the reasons coz I just can’t be arsed to post them yet again but trust me come election night PA will go Dem even more solidly than it did in 2000…as for that matter will MI and expect an increase in the Dem vote in WV and OH…but the I’m biased as are you…maybe we should just leave prediction to the independents on the board but then again where would be the fun in that?... I  love bias…