London Mayoral Election 2012

[Phony Moderate]

Apparently, Ed Balls has sent out this letter to London voters. The more....errrr....'interesting' parts of it are in bold:

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[Silent Hunter]

Al, since you know a lot about these things, is the current Mayor of London more or less more than the Leader of the GLC was?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Al, since you know a lot about these things, is the current Mayor of London more or less more than the Leader of the GLC was?

He has more personal power, but the GLC had more power than even the Mayor and GLA combined. The boroughs are stronger - in relation to London Government though (obviously!) not Whitehall - than they were.

Of course, the GLC was less powerful in most respects than the LCC. Every new generation of London Government is weaker than the last.

[Keystone Phil]

Tories are aliens? That's the strategy in the canpaign's final days? So Boris is guaranteed a win, right?

[You kip if you want to...]

Tories are aliens? That's the strategy in the canpaign's final days? So Boris is guaranteed a win, right?

Not guaranteed (Ken was "guaranteed" to be reelected at this time 4 years ago), but it's extremely likely.

[afleitch]

Populus has Boris 12 points ahead. It would suggest a bigger win than in 2008. Don't think it's going to be that 'stonking'; still think Boris will win it by a whisker.

[MaxQue]

Populus has Boris 12 points ahead

Well, doesn't Populus has the Tories back by only 6, while other pollsters are in the 10-15 range, at the national level?

They seem to have quite a lean.

[afleitch]

Populus has Boris 12 points ahead

Well, doesn't Populus has the Tories back by only 6, while other pollsters are in the 10-15 range, at the national level?

They seem to have quite a lean.

The other pollsters have Labour up 3, 6, 7, 8 nationally IIRC. It's only YouGov that have Labour up over 10 points with the Tories polling at 1997 levels. It's just that YouGov give us their tracker poll every day.

[You kip if you want to...]

Populus has Boris 12 points ahead

Well, doesn't Populus has the Tories back by only 6, while other pollsters are in the 10-15 range, at the national level?

They seem to have quite a lean.

The other pollsters have Labour up 3, 6, 7, 8 nationally IIRC. It's only YouGov that have Labour up over 10 points with the Tories polling at 1997 levels. It's just that YouGov give us their tracker poll every day.

Don't forget Angus Reid's 12 point lead. (lol)

[afleitch]

Populus has Boris 12 points ahead

Well, doesn't Populus has the Tories back by only 6, while other pollsters are in the 10-15 range, at the national level?

They seem to have quite a lean.

The other pollsters have Labour up 3, 6, 7, 8 nationally IIRC. It's only YouGov that have Labour up over 10 points with the Tories polling at 1997 levels. It's just that YouGov give us their tracker poll every day.

Don't forget Angus Reid's 12 point lead. (lol)

Poor Angus Reid.

[Andrea]

Populus has Boris 12 points ahead

Well, doesn't Populus has the Tories back by only 6, while other pollsters are in the 10-15 range, at the national level?

They seem to have quite a lean.

The other pollsters have Labour up 3, 6, 7, 8 nationally IIRC. It's only YouGov that have Labour up over 10 points with the Tories polling at 1997 levels. It's just that YouGov give us their tracker poll every day.

yougov is down to 7% too today

[mileslunn]

I wouldn't be surprised if Boris wins.  I would think the olympics if all goes well should help him.  As for the Tories federally, I actually think the odds of Cameron winning in 2015 are greater than even since despite his unpopularity now, most politicians who make big spending cuts do it early in their term and I think people understand they are needed.  If I am not mistaken, I believe Margaret Thatcher trailed in the polls quite often while in power yet won three times.  Sure the Falklands war helped no doubt, but she won her third term without that benefit.

[Keystone Phil]

I wouldn't be surprised if Boris wins.  I would think the olympics if all goes well should help him. 

Ok but the election is this Thursday so...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How many of the companies polling this election have a record in London-specific elections? Obviously YouGov do and Mori (if they've done one; have they?) but the rest? Suppose I could check myself, but don't really care enough about the race in general, so will just pose the question.

[mileslunn]

I wouldn't be surprised if Boris wins.  I would think the olympics if all goes well should help him. 

Ok but the election is this Thursday so...

My bad, still I would think them holding them should help.  As for the Tories doing horribly at the national level, that could hurt him, but turnout is typically lower at local elections and also the strongest opposition to the Tories is in the North of the country.

[You kip if you want to...]

I wouldn't be surprised if Boris wins.  I would think the olympics if all goes well should help him. 

Ok but the election is this Thursday so...

My bad, still I would think them holding them should help.  As for the Tories doing horribly at the national level, that could hurt him, but turnout is typically lower at local elections and also the strongest opposition to the Tories is in the North of the country.

The North and Greater London, as a little caveat there.

And Boris Johnson'll get re-elected despite being a Conservative and because Labour picked a blunder of a nominee.

[Insula Dei]

YouGov had Boris 4 points ahead yesterday. I suppose it's fair to say that Boris is all but certain to win (about as certain as a Hollande victory in France is right now), but that the final numbers will be closer to YouGov's than to Populus. I have a hard time seeing how Ken could blood enough votes on a 6-13 point national Labour lead to lose London by double digits. Just my impressions.

[Phony Moderate]

Anyone else think that Boris sounds very much like Ted Heath (in terms of the accent and it's delivery)?

Boris:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E02PVyyjIoM

Ted:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Lb00M7EXx4

[mileslunn]

I wouldn't be surprised if Boris wins.  I would think the olympics if all goes well should help him. 

Ok but the election is this Thursday so...

My bad, still I would think them holding them should help.  As for the Tories doing horribly at the national level, that could hurt him, but turnout is typically lower at local elections and also the strongest opposition to the Tories is in the North of the country.

The North and Greater London, as a little caveat there.

And Boris Johnson'll get re-elected despite being a Conservative and because Labour picked a blunder of a nominee.

Ken Livingston seems a little too left wing for London.  Although old Labour types are the nosiest they don't seem to have the support they did 30 years ago.  I also think Ed Millbrand would face a much tougher fight if a general election was called.  His lead has more to do with dissatisfaction of the current government and less to do with any support he has.  He also strikes me as too left wing for Britain.

[You kip if you want to...]

I wouldn't be surprised if Boris wins.  I would think the olympics if all goes well should help him. 

Ok but the election is this Thursday so...

My bad, still I would think them holding them should help.  As for the Tories doing horribly at the national level, that could hurt him, but turnout is typically lower at local elections and also the strongest opposition to the Tories is in the North of the country.

The North and Greater London, as a little caveat there.

And Boris Johnson'll get re-elected despite being a Conservative and because Labour picked a blunder of a nominee.

Ken Livingston seems a little too left wing for London.  Although old Labour types are the nosiest they don't seem to have the support they did 30 years ago.  I also think Ed Millbrand would face a much tougher fight if a general election was called.  His lead has more to do with dissatisfaction of the current government and less to do with any support he has.  He also strikes me as too left wing for Britain.

I completely agree. Although it's a fact that the Tories'd need a 2%(ish) swing towards them still. Not happening unless people can answer "yes" to the age old "Are you better than you were in 2010?" question, which most can't.

[Leftbehind]

I completely disagree. Ken's defeat is down to Boris' unique popularity factor - one of the few politicians out there more popular than his party, and can win votes from other parties on personality alone. Ken's already won two elections in recent times, so I don't see how he can be classed as "too left-wing" - he's moderated a great deal from when he was an unstoppable force via GLC, and I've never bought the idea that a more centrist Labour poltician would stand any chance against Boris unless they had a similar amount of charisma, in what is increasingly becoming a personality contest. I'd accept that Ken's less popular than his party, but I wouldn't put it down to his left-wing views - more the fact that he's
1) already been tried and tested for the best part of the decade so doesn't have the benefit of a fresh change (and the downside that he'll have made, however limited, himself unpopular because of long-term incumbency), whereas a party vote you're voting for a collective which can be led by a radically different team.
2) suffered several damaging attacks on his character in the run up to the election, with Boris recieving nothing like them.

Actually, I don't completely disagree, because Labour's national leads are undoubtedly to do with government unpopularity rather than any inspiring efforts from Labour, but again, "too left-wing" is more recieved wisdom in a time with a united-left for the first time in thirty years, which regularly seen to the election of far more left-wing Labour PMs, a more than ever disunited right - that even if united would trail Labour, and a period in which there's dissatisfaction with the current neoliberal model - without even mentioning there seems to be little from Miliband to prove he is even left-wing in the first place!

Populus has Boris 12 points ahead

Well, doesn't Populus has the Tories back by only 6, while other pollsters are in the 10-15 range, at the national level?

They seem to have quite a lean.

The other pollsters have Labour up 3, 6, 7, 8 nationally IIRC. It's only YouGov that have Labour up over 10 points with the Tories polling at 1997 levels. It's just that YouGov give us their tracker poll every day.

Don't forget Angus Reid's 12 point lead. (lol)

Poor Angus Reid.

But many of those, for instance the coalition-supporters-friendly ICM, initially show a 12% lead or there abouts and then add their adjustments to their figures (weight by turnout - some more strictly than others, reallocate 50% of don't knows to their former party, which is obviously contentious in today's environment) and end up with a dramatically reduced lead for Labour.  

The other pollsters have Labour up 3, 6, 7, 8 nationally IIRC. It's only YouGov that have Labour up over 10 points with the Tories polling at 1997 levels. It's just that YouGov give us their tracker poll every day.

yougov is down to 7% too today

After an 11% the day before, and back up to 9% tonight - AKA, Margin of Error territory.

I wouldn't be surprised if Boris wins.  I would think the olympics if all goes well should help him.  As for the Tories federally, I actually think the odds of Cameron winning in 2015 are greater than even since despite his unpopularity now, most politicians who make big spending cuts do it early in their term and I think people understand they are needed.  If I am not mistaken, I believe Margaret Thatcher trailed in the polls quite often while in power yet won three times.  Sure the Falklands war helped no doubt, but she won her third term without that benefit.

Thatcher wasn't consistently behind in '87 - only '82, where a military victory and a divided opposition helped her overcome her percieved certain ousting. She was unpopular post that victory, but was removed and the policy causing much of the unpopularity disowned.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ken Livingston seems a little too left wing for London.

If this was the case then he would not have won in 2000 or 2004. He also wouldn't have had a hope in hell of re-election in 2008 and he at least kept it competitive. He's losing despite the best climate for Labour candidates in municipal () elections since the mid 1990s because of his personal failings. He was a less than perfect candidate anyway (having spent his final term as Mayor alienating certain important sections of Labour's base in London) but that's what's done the (probably fatal) damage. You cannot run for office as a bold reforming Lefty and have such serious questions be asked about (amongst other things) your tax affairs.

Of course you can't actually rule out an upset, even at this stage. But if he does fluke this, then it'll be because of the government's unpopularity.

[Silent Hunter]

Al, since you know a lot about these things, is the current Mayor of London more or less more than the Leader of the GLC was?

He has more personal power, but the GLC had more power than even the Mayor and GLA combined. The boroughs are stronger - in relation to London Government though (obviously!) not Whitehall - than they were.

Of course, the GLC was less powerful in most respects than the LCC. Every new generation of London Government is weaker than the last.

Thanks.

[Keystone Phil]

When do the polls close?

[afleitch]

When do the polls close?

Same as usual; 10pm. Results in some boroughs will come through overnight. Others will be released in the morning.