London Mayoral Election 2012

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I think that this'll be an interesting race. Labour have the advantage of opposition, like the Tories did in '08 and who knows what state the ConDems could be in come May 2012.

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UNITE has endorsed Ken Livingstone. Lemit Opik has said that he will seek the Liberal Democrats' nomination.

Is there anyone who actually thinks that the London Mayoral Election is a non-joke?

Lembit and Boris? Oh, this'll be good.

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If by some miracle King does win the nomination, then Livingstone would stand as an Independent again as in 2000. This time though Mayor Johnson would be re-elected easily with King and Livingstone fighting it out for 2nd place. Although the governing party traditionally does poorly in local elections, the Tories would be saved due to the rupture in the Labour party due to Livingstone going rogue.

Is that really a problem with the preference system though?

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The 'Others' outpolling the Lib Dems = LOL.

To be fair we should probably acknowledge that the lack of a candidate handicaps the Libdem performance in polls at the moment. On the other hand I do hope the Libdems get  blown apart in this election.

Don't worry, they will be.

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Is Ken still a Labour party member?

Oona should've won anyway.

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Brian Paddick 1,527

Winner.

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so the same, uninspiring big thee as last time, Can Paddo still keep it up into third place though?

He'll struggle...

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http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/4676

Ken's back ahead!

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Why vote for someone who's gonna resign midterm anyway? (Before anyone says it, yes I know Blair did it.)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/wintour-and-watt/2012/jan/24/boris-livingstone

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In case of vacancy of London mayorship, what happens?

A by-election?
GLA appoints someone?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deputy_Mayor_of_London

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http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/02/08/ken-livingstons-bizarre-rant_n_1262981.html?ref=uk

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Would anyone else (like me) have preferred Oona anyway?

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Would anyone else (like me) have preferred Oona anyway?

I would - I voted for her.

I definately would've if I was a Londoner.

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Johnson and Livingstone unable to behave professionally Boris Johnson calls Ken Livingstone a "f-cking liar: official.

In other news, Pope confirms Catholicism, bear admits to arboreal defecation.

Corrected

Imagine Boris as Prime Minister...

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http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/4251938/Just-seen-the-polls-Ken-Livingstone.html

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The Standard go for Boris.

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Lord Sugar lashed out at Ken this afternoon and it came out that Ken uses private healthcare.

WHY did Labour nominate this idiot? WHY?

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Lord Sugar lashed out at Ken this afternoon and it came out that Ken uses private healthcare.

WHY did Labour nominate this idiot? WHY?

What's wrong with using private health care, even if you're a socialist in a country with the NHS?  Is it a sign of disrespect towards the NHS?  I highly doubt that it's taboo to get news from a source other than the BBC. 

It's very much a taboo. You don't have to pay to go onto the ITN or the Sky website, but you do to use Bupa. And it is a sign of disrespect for the health service.

For a comparison, you'll struggle to find many politicians who want to go far sending their kids to private school.

It also implies that they're being run badly if you're the incumbent.

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Tories are aliens? That's the strategy in the canpaign's final days? So Boris is guaranteed a win, right?

Not guaranteed (Ken was "guaranteed" to be reelected at this time 4 years ago), but it's extremely likely.

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Populus has Boris 12 points ahead

Well, doesn't Populus has the Tories back by only 6, while other pollsters are in the 10-15 range, at the national level?

They seem to have quite a lean.

The other pollsters have Labour up 3, 6, 7, 8 nationally IIRC. It's only YouGov that have Labour up over 10 points with the Tories polling at 1997 levels. It's just that YouGov give us their tracker poll every day.

Don't forget Angus Reid's 12 point lead. (lol)

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I wouldn't be surprised if Boris wins.  I would think the olympics if all goes well should help him. 

Ok but the election is this Thursday so...

My bad, still I would think them holding them should help.  As for the Tories doing horribly at the national level, that could hurt him, but turnout is typically lower at local elections and also the strongest opposition to the Tories is in the North of the country.

The North and Greater London, as a little caveat there.

And Boris Johnson'll get re-elected despite being a Conservative and because Labour picked a blunder of a nominee.

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I wouldn't be surprised if Boris wins.  I would think the olympics if all goes well should help him. 

Ok but the election is this Thursday so...

My bad, still I would think them holding them should help.  As for the Tories doing horribly at the national level, that could hurt him, but turnout is typically lower at local elections and also the strongest opposition to the Tories is in the North of the country.

The North and Greater London, as a little caveat there.

And Boris Johnson'll get re-elected despite being a Conservative and because Labour picked a blunder of a nominee.

Ken Livingston seems a little too left wing for London.  Although old Labour types are the nosiest they don't seem to have the support they did 30 years ago.  I also think Ed Millbrand would face a much tougher fight if a general election was called.  His lead has more to do with dissatisfaction of the current government and less to do with any support he has.  He also strikes me as too left wing for Britain.

I completely agree. Although it's a fact that the Tories'd need a 2%(ish) swing towards them still. Not happening unless people can answer "yes" to the age old "Are you better than you were in 2010?" question, which most can't.

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Boris'll win by round and about the same margin as last time.

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It'd make this set of elections truly hilarious if Ken pulled this off.

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Use electronic counting machines, they said.

It'll make it quicker, they said.