Why is/was President Obama so amazingly popular in Vermont? (user search)
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  Why is/was President Obama so amazingly popular in Vermont? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Why is/was President Obama so amazingly popular in Vermont?  (Read 13557 times)
Bo
Rochambeau
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Posts: 13,986
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52

« on: June 08, 2010, 01:08:04 PM »

Vermont has just been trending Democratic for a long time.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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*****
Posts: 13,986
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52

« Reply #1 on: June 08, 2010, 01:56:18 PM »

This shows how Democratic relative to the national average Vermont was in Presidential elections since 1988:

1988: D+2
1992: D+3
1996: D+4
2000: D+2 (due to Nader)
2004: D+11
2008: D+15

Keep in mind that Obama won a greater nationwide % of the vote than Kerry did, and thus it is expected that he would do better percentagewise in Vermont. Vermont did trend a little Democratic between 2004 and 2008, though. In 2004, Vermont was 11% more Democratic than the national average, while in 2008, Vermont was 15% more Democratic than the national average.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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*****
Posts: 13,986
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52

« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2010, 02:46:56 PM »

Vermont has been trending away from the Republican party for some time now. The party of war and corporate bailouts represented by Bush and McCain forced them into the arms of the Democrats.

True.  I think Bush Snr. and Clinton had something to do with it too.  I think that the GOP was killed in Vermont after Bush raised taxes on the wealthy.  Than after Clinton was elected, he proved that not all Democrats were hardcore liberals, which I think helped a fair amount.

Bush Sr.'s tax raise didn't affect the wealthy that much (it probably affected ordinary Americans more) and Reagan raised taxes on ordinary Americans numerous times, which didn't seem to hurt him in VT. Besides, VT isn't that wealthy. I think VT trended Democratic since 1988 due to the increasing social conservatism of the GOP and the increased social liberalism of the Democrats. I don't think it had much to do with economics since the GOP was arguably the more economically conservative party since the late 1970s, way before VT started trending Democratic.
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Bo
Rochambeau
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,986
Israel


Political Matrix
E: -5.23, S: -2.52

« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2010, 09:18:04 PM »

Vermont has been trending away from the Republican party for some time now. The party of war and corporate bailouts represented by Bush and McCain forced them into the arms of the Democrats.

True.  I think Bush Snr. and Clinton had something to do with it too.  I think that the GOP was killed in Vermont after Bush raised taxes on the wealthy.  Than after Clinton was elected, he proved that not all Democrats were hardcore liberals, which I think helped a fair amount.

Bush Sr.'s tax raise didn't affect the wealthy that much (it probably affected ordinary Americans more) and Reagan raised taxes on ordinary Americans numerous times, which didn't seem to hurt him in VT. Besides, VT isn't that wealthy. I think VT trended Democratic since 1988 due to the increasing social conservatism of the GOP and the increased social liberalism of the Democrats. I don't think it had much to do with economics since the GOP was arguably the more economically conservative party since the late 1970s, way before VT started trending Democratic.

Maybe, but I think the publicity of that event screwed the GOP over in Vermont.  Although I think the Dems would have picked it up anyways, I think Bush Snr. was the nail in the coffin, so to speak. 

I honestly don't think Bush Sr.'s tax raise had much to do with VT going Democratic. Most of the GOP distanced themselves from that tax raise (and from any tax raises, for that matter) soon afterwards, yet the GOP didn't make any gains in VT in 1994, 1996, or 2000. Besides, the conservatives that strongly oppose such tax raises are much less widespread in VT than in other states, and I doubt many of those conservatives would be willing to vote for Democrats for 20 years in a row. I still think it was social issues that swung VT to the Dems since 1992. Over the last 20 years, the GOP became much more socially conservative and the Dems became much more socially liberal, and VT was always much more socially liberal than the rest of the nation.
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