269-269 EV and 25-25 House Tie

[Erc]

I outlined the possibilities a few months back...and again a few weeks ago

Worst case scenario for the Republicans:

25 for Bush
20 for Kerry
1 probably for Kerry (Vermont)
4 Evenly Divided (and thus abstaining).

Since a majority of the whole number of states (26) is necessary to a choice, this results in a deadlock.

If no-one breaks for Bush by January 20th, whoever the Senate selects (or simply Cheney, if the EV tie is caused by Robb voting for anyone but Bush or Cheney (Pres) and Cheney (VP) ) becomes Acting President until the House decides.

If the Senate is deadlocked, I'm pretty sure that Cheney cannot break the tie in favor of himself, although this is something that could go to the Supreme Court.

In that event, Dennis Hastert becomes Acting President if he wishes to resign his house seat.

If he doesn't, then Ted Stevens becomes Acting President if he wishes to resign his Senate seat.

If he doesn't, Colin Powell becomes Acting President.  If he refuses the spot (although I don't know if he can without resigning his position), it goes to John Snow, Sec'y of the Treasury...then our boy Rumsfeld.


A more interesting and very disturbing scenario is the following:

The Twelfth Amendment clearly specifies that a quorum of two-thirds of the state delegations (or Senators, in the case of the Senate) is necessary to a choice.  Thus, if the Democrats walk out they can prevent Bush from becoming President, or Cheney from becoming Veep, even if they lose seats in the House or Senate.  Similarly, if the Republicans lose the Senate, they can block an Edwards selection by a similar measure.

Whether Bush could appoint a new Vice President (which would be confirmed by simple majority quorum) before the first one is selected is also something that could go before the Supreme Court if there's a deadlock there or one side walks out.