Trends of the States
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Author Topic: Trends of the States  (Read 5921 times)
Derek
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« on: June 18, 2010, 06:12:42 PM »

If you're bored which way do you see the states trending at the state and federal levels? Notice I said trend and not voting in the next election per say.

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Bo
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« Reply #1 on: June 18, 2010, 06:44:20 PM »



Basically, Middle America trends GOP, while the coastal and Mexican border areas trend Democratic.
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Derek
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« Reply #2 on: June 21, 2010, 02:26:43 AM »

Hmm what about TX and AZ do you see as trending to the left? I'm curious.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #3 on: June 21, 2010, 11:26:24 PM »

I see the Northern states, many of which are losing population and electoral votes, trending GOP, while fast-growing states in the Sunbelt I see trending Democratic.
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RI
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« Reply #4 on: June 21, 2010, 11:27:48 PM »

Hmm what about TX and AZ do you see as trending to the left? I'm curious.

Increasing Hispanic populations probably.
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Derek
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« Reply #5 on: June 21, 2010, 11:33:44 PM »

I see the Northern states, many of which are losing population and electoral votes, trending GOP, while fast-growing states in the Sunbelt I see trending Democratic.

Yes but many of the New Yorkers who are moving south are doing so because they are conservative. I know Hannity is encouraging NY and NJ Republicans to move to FL to change the EV.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #6 on: June 22, 2010, 12:29:27 AM »

I suppose this would be my guess:

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Bo
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« Reply #7 on: June 22, 2010, 12:39:26 AM »

Hmm what about TX and AZ do you see as trending to the left? I'm curious.

Increasing Hispanic populations probably.

Yep, the reason I see them trending left is due to increasing Latino (and to a lesser extent) Asian populations. Immigrants and minorities typically tend to vote Democratic, so that should make AZ and TX more Democratic in the future.
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Derek
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« Reply #8 on: June 22, 2010, 12:42:50 AM »

Hmm what about TX and AZ do you see as trending to the left? I'm curious.

Increasing Hispanic populations probably.

Yep, the reason I see them trending left is due to increasing Latino (and to a lesser extent) Asian populations. Immigrants and minorities typically tend to vote Democratic, so that should make AZ and TX more Democratic in the future.

In that case the GOP needs to defeat the democrats for a decade in order to make that party switch stances on some of the issues. Once one liberal moves in they all move in and pretty soon you're over run with the liberal types. They send their kids to our schools and their ideology rubs off on our conservative students. The next thing you know they'll be wanting to tell us where we can and can't decorate for Christmas.
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Dgov
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« Reply #9 on: June 22, 2010, 04:00:16 AM »

Yep, the reason I see them trending left is due to increasing Latino (and to a lesser extent) Asian populations. Immigrants and minorities typically tend to vote Democratic, so that should make AZ and TX more Democratic in the future.

I don't think that's going to be as big of a factor as you might think.  Consider that the Democrats have been slowly bleeding Hispanic support in Texas, dropping from the mid-to-high 70s in the 1980s to roughly 60% now.  It's one of the reasons why Obama lost Texas by roughly the same margin that Micheal Dukakis did, despite the fact that the state gained almost 5 million Hispanics in that time frame.

That's not to say that the Democrats can't swing Texas into their column, but unless they can improve on their percentages in either the White or Hispanic vote, they'll need about 10 Million* more Hispanics in Texas (or essentially turning it 50% Hispanic) to flip the state.

*Assuming Hispanics comprised ~25% of Texas voters, and voted for Obama ~63%-37%, than that means Hispanics only gave Obama about a 500,000 vote edge.  So in terms of adding politically identical Hispanics, the Democrats would need about 18 Million more in the State in order for Obama to win it.  Add in increased turnout numbers, and I could see that figure dropping to only around 10 Million.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #10 on: June 22, 2010, 08:38:04 AM »
« Edited: June 22, 2010, 08:39:56 AM by Metal Mario »

Trust me, Oklahoma is not in any way shape or form trending Democratic.  Hell, McCain had the best electoral performance (by numbers) since Reagan in this state despite it being an almost landslide election for Obama.
That, and this state is so socially conservative that only DINOs can get elected to office (and even then, like in Brad Carson's case, they still have a hell of a time trying to convince people that they aren't the same as those evil bleedingheart Democrats).
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #11 on: June 22, 2010, 10:41:29 AM »

My guess, although there are some states that I really couldn't decide on:

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Derek
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« Reply #12 on: June 22, 2010, 10:47:10 AM »

I can see Nevada and Colorado become democrat states in 20 years but not Texas or Arizona.
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hcallega
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« Reply #13 on: June 22, 2010, 08:01:55 PM »

I can see Nevada and Colorado become democrat states in 20 years but not Texas or Arizona.

Not Texas for sure. It'll become more competitive though. Arizona may become Democratic however.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #14 on: June 22, 2010, 08:16:12 PM »

Trust me, Oklahoma is not in any way shape or form trending Democratic.  Hell, McCain had the best electoral performance (by numbers) since Reagan in this state despite it being an almost landslide election for Obama.
That, and this state is so socially conservative that only DINOs can get elected to office (and even then, like in Brad Carson's case, they still have a hell of a time trying to convince people that they aren't the same as those evil bleedingheart Democrats).

So you honestly see Oklahoma getting more Republican than it already is? Will it break 70% GOP in the next presidential election?
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« Reply #15 on: June 22, 2010, 08:19:56 PM »

My guess, although there are some states that I really couldn't decide on:



Do you think there will be any long-term effects of Arizona's recent anti-immigrant policies? Even since 2008, the state seems to be swinging pretty hard toward the hardline GOP, plus a lot of immigrants are leaving the state.
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Ameriplan
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« Reply #16 on: June 22, 2010, 09:33:58 PM »

My guess, although there are some states that I really couldn't decide on:



Do you think there will be any long-term effects of Arizona's recent anti-immigrant policies? Even since 2008, the state seems to be swinging pretty hard toward the hardline GOP, plus a lot of immigrants are leaving the state.

Sounds like the state is on the upswing. After all, Hispanics are the reason NM went left, and I could see Nevada and Colorado, but not Arizona. Not Texas either.
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Derek
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« Reply #17 on: June 22, 2010, 10:09:14 PM »

My guess, although there are some states that I really couldn't decide on:



Do you think there will be any long-term effects of Arizona's recent anti-immigrant policies? Even since 2008, the state seems to be swinging pretty hard toward the hardline GOP, plus a lot of immigrants are leaving the state.

No, I see it dividing the state along racial lines which is unfortunate, but the law is very popular in that state.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #18 on: June 23, 2010, 03:58:25 PM »
« Edited: June 23, 2010, 04:00:04 PM by Metal Mario »

Trust me, Oklahoma is not in any way shape or form trending Democratic.  Hell, McCain had the best electoral performance (by numbers) since Reagan in this state despite it being an almost landslide election for Obama.
That, and this state is so socially conservative that only DINOs can get elected to office (and even then, like in Brad Carson's case, they still have a hell of a time trying to convince people that they aren't the same as those evil bleedingheart Democrats).

So you honestly see Oklahoma getting more Republican than it already is? Will it break 70% GOP in the next presidential election?

If things go really badly for Obama then yes I could easily see Oklahoma breaking 70%.  Hell, Oklahoma will probably trend even more Republican if Obama is somewhat successful (and if a conservative Republican is nominated).  However, if moderate heroes somehow take over the GOP, then yes Oklahoma could very easily say "screw you northeast establishment" and trend Democrat.

Also, many states in the so-called "Solid South" were the most solid during the early 1900's than they were the late 1800's.....................
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #19 on: June 23, 2010, 04:12:15 PM »

Trust me, Oklahoma is not in any way shape or form trending Democratic.  Hell, McCain had the best electoral performance (by numbers) since Reagan in this state despite it being an almost landslide election for Obama.
That, and this state is so socially conservative that only DINOs can get elected to office (and even then, like in Brad Carson's case, they still have a hell of a time trying to convince people that they aren't the same as those evil bleedingheart Democrats).

So you honestly see Oklahoma getting more Republican than it already is? Will it break 70% GOP in the next presidential election?

If things go really badly for Obama then yes I could easily see Oklahoma breaking 70%.  Hell, Oklahoma will probably trend even more Republican if Obama is somewhat successful (and if a conservative Republican is nominated).  However, if moderate heroes somehow take over the GOP, then yes Oklahoma could very easily say "screw you northeast establishment" and trend Democrat.

Also, many states in the so-called "Solid South" were the most solid during the early 1900's than they were the late 1800's.....................

Well Oklahoma wasn't even a state until the early 1900s. It was kind of a swing state except during the FDR-Truman era. Richard Nixon did break 70% there in 1972, and Ronald Reagan came close.
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Mechaman
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« Reply #20 on: June 23, 2010, 04:16:04 PM »

Trust me, Oklahoma is not in any way shape or form trending Democratic.  Hell, McCain had the best electoral performance (by numbers) since Reagan in this state despite it being an almost landslide election for Obama.
That, and this state is so socially conservative that only DINOs can get elected to office (and even then, like in Brad Carson's case, they still have a hell of a time trying to convince people that they aren't the same as those evil bleedingheart Democrats).

So you honestly see Oklahoma getting more Republican than it already is? Will it break 70% GOP in the next presidential election?

If things go really badly for Obama then yes I could easily see Oklahoma breaking 70%.  Hell, Oklahoma will probably trend even more Republican if Obama is somewhat successful (and if a conservative Republican is nominated).  However, if moderate heroes somehow take over the GOP, then yes Oklahoma could very easily say "screw you northeast establishment" and trend Democrat.

Also, many states in the so-called "Solid South" were the most solid during the early 1900's than they were the late 1800's.....................

Well Oklahoma wasn't even a state until the early 1900s. It was kind of a swing state except during the FDR-Truman era. Richard Nixon did break 70% there in 1972, and Ronald Reagan came close.

I'm saying that in current situation (where a tea party candidate, conservative, or libertarian candidate is likely to get the nod) it is likely that Oklahoma will stay pretty solid GOP.  I know Oklahoma wasn't a state until early 1900s smart guy, I was using example of states in the SOLID SOUTH (in other words examples of states that didn't include Oklahoma) to demonstrate that it is possible for states to be more solid than 70%.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #21 on: June 23, 2010, 04:17:53 PM »

Trust me, Oklahoma is not in any way shape or form trending Democratic.  Hell, McCain had the best electoral performance (by numbers) since Reagan in this state despite it being an almost landslide election for Obama.
That, and this state is so socially conservative that only DINOs can get elected to office (and even then, like in Brad Carson's case, they still have a hell of a time trying to convince people that they aren't the same as those evil bleedingheart Democrats).

So you honestly see Oklahoma getting more Republican than it already is? Will it break 70% GOP in the next presidential election?

If things go really badly for Obama then yes I could easily see Oklahoma breaking 70%.  Hell, Oklahoma will probably trend even more Republican if Obama is somewhat successful (and if a conservative Republican is nominated).  However, if moderate heroes somehow take over the GOP, then yes Oklahoma could very easily say "screw you northeast establishment" and trend Democrat.

Also, many states in the so-called "Solid South" were the most solid during the early 1900's than they were the late 1800's.....................

Well Oklahoma wasn't even a state until the early 1900s. It was kind of a swing state except during the FDR-Truman era. Richard Nixon did break 70% there in 1972, and Ronald Reagan came close.

I'm saying that in current situation (where a tea party candidate, conservative, or libertarian candidate is likely to get the nod) it is likely that Oklahoma will stay pretty solid GOP.  I know Oklahoma wasn't a state until early 1900s smart guy, I was using example of states in the SOLID SOUTH (in other words examples of states that didn't include Oklahoma) to demonstrate that it is possible for states to be more solid than 70%.

But Texas and Kansas will trend Democratic?
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Mechaman
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« Reply #22 on: June 23, 2010, 04:21:56 PM »

Trust me, Oklahoma is not in any way shape or form trending Democratic.  Hell, McCain had the best electoral performance (by numbers) since Reagan in this state despite it being an almost landslide election for Obama.
That, and this state is so socially conservative that only DINOs can get elected to office (and even then, like in Brad Carson's case, they still have a hell of a time trying to convince people that they aren't the same as those evil bleedingheart Democrats).

So you honestly see Oklahoma getting more Republican than it already is? Will it break 70% GOP in the next presidential election?

If things go really badly for Obama then yes I could easily see Oklahoma breaking 70%.  Hell, Oklahoma will probably trend even more Republican if Obama is somewhat successful (and if a conservative Republican is nominated).  However, if moderate heroes somehow take over the GOP, then yes Oklahoma could very easily say "screw you northeast establishment" and trend Democrat.

Also, many states in the so-called "Solid South" were the most solid during the early 1900's than they were the late 1800's.....................

Well Oklahoma wasn't even a state until the early 1900s. It was kind of a swing state except during the FDR-Truman era. Richard Nixon did break 70% there in 1972, and Ronald Reagan came close.

I'm saying that in current situation (where a tea party candidate, conservative, or libertarian candidate is likely to get the nod) it is likely that Oklahoma will stay pretty solid GOP.  I know Oklahoma wasn't a state until early 1900s smart guy, I was using example of states in the SOLID SOUTH (in other words examples of states that didn't include Oklahoma) to demonstrate that it is possible for states to be more solid than 70%.

But Texas and Kansas will trend Democratic?

I'm not very sure on Kansas, but Texas is real possibility considering the influx of hispanic immigration that traditionally favors Democrats.  Arizona depends on who will win out in the most recent immigration debate: those in support of stronger border enforcement of those who are against it.  I also see the rustbelt trending GOP due to decrease in population (especially in places like Minnesota and Michigan).
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Derek
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« Reply #23 on: June 23, 2010, 05:42:32 PM »

If Texas goes the way of old yeller I won't have a place to retire to.
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Ameriplan
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« Reply #24 on: June 23, 2010, 09:33:11 PM »

Trust me, Oklahoma is not in any way shape or form trending Democratic.  Hell, McCain had the best electoral performance (by numbers) since Reagan in this state despite it being an almost landslide election for Obama.
That, and this state is so socially conservative that only DINOs can get elected to office (and even then, like in Brad Carson's case, they still have a hell of a time trying to convince people that they aren't the same as those evil bleedingheart Democrats).

So you honestly see Oklahoma getting more Republican than it already is? Will it break 70% GOP in the next presidential election?

If things go really badly for Obama then yes I could easily see Oklahoma breaking 70%.  Hell, Oklahoma will probably trend even more Republican if Obama is somewhat successful (and if a conservative Republican is nominated).  However, if moderate heroes somehow take over the GOP, then yes Oklahoma could very easily say "screw you northeast establishment" and trend Democrat.

Also, many states in the so-called "Solid South" were the most solid during the early 1900's than they were the late 1800's.....................

Well Oklahoma wasn't even a state until the early 1900s. It was kind of a swing state except during the FDR-Truman era. Richard Nixon did break 70% there in 1972, and Ronald Reagan came close.

I'm saying that in current situation (where a tea party candidate, conservative, or libertarian candidate is likely to get the nod) it is likely that Oklahoma will stay pretty solid GOP.  I know Oklahoma wasn't a state until early 1900s smart guy, I was using example of states in the SOLID SOUTH (in other words examples of states that didn't include Oklahoma) to demonstrate that it is possible for states to be more solid than 70%.

But Texas and Kansas will trend Democratic?

I'm not very sure on Kansas, but Texas is real possibility considering the influx of hispanic immigration that traditionally favors Democrats.  Arizona depends on who will win out in the most recent immigration debate: those in support of stronger border enforcement of those who are against it.  I also see the rustbelt trending GOP due to decrease in population (especially in places like Minnesota and Michigan).

And PA, which is just super. Michigan will never be GOP because Detroit is full of blacks, who vote Dem despite nothing getting better.
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