2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[Torie]

2 precincts left - Benishek up by 39 votes.  The last 3 precincts in Iosco were not favorable for him.  Probably will be about a tie.

27,058  27,160

B's lead seem to have expanded to 102 votes, without any more precincts coming in. And there you have it. Two precincts still out in Bay County, which Allen is carrying by a bit. Those two precincts won't generate a 100 vote margin however, I don't think. So Allen needs some votes to come in or something like for B without any more precincts coming in. Stay tuned.

And maybe there are some late absentees or overseas votes left to be counted anyway. I assume there will be a recount.

[cinyc]

I do want to point out that the Free Press already says Kilpatrick has lost.  We'll see.

http://www.freep.com/article/20100803/NEWS15/100803079/1435/Clarke-upsets-Cheeks-Kilpatrick

In trying to infer how much of the white vote is in, this data point isn't very helpful is it?  

U.S. House - District 13 - GOP Primary
Eastern Wayne
Uncontested race, no results will be reported.
County   Precincts   J. Hauler
(GOP)
Total   0/0   0
0%

I'm not sure what race you're looking at, but Wayne County Michigan's election results are here, which may or may not be more up-to-date than the AP count:
http://www.waynecounty.com/documents/elections_docs/CAND_LST.pdf

Edited to add: You can infer what's out from the county convention races.  It's not the Pointe.

[Tender Branson]

Good polls this time by EPIC/MRA for both Governor races and the MI-13 race.

The KS polls by SUSA and Singularis were also good, with SUSA showing Tiahrt narrowing the gap in the final weeks.

If the primary would have been next week, Tiahrt probably would have moved ahead of Moran ...

[Tender Branson]

I´m already waiting for the Rasmussen poll that will come out in the next days showing a 25-point Snyder lead over Bernero ...

[Torie]

2 precincts left - Benishek up by 39 votes.  The last 3 precincts in Iosco were not favorable for him.  Probably will be about a tie.

27,058  27,160

B's lead seem to have expanded to 102 votes, without any more precincts coming in. And there you have it. Two precincts still out in Bay County, which Allen is carrying by a bit. Those two precincts won't generate a 100 vote margin however, I don't think. So Allen needs some votes to come in or something like for B without any more precincts coming in. Stay tuned.

And maybe there are some late absentees or overseas votes left to be counted anyway. I assume there will be a recount.

Well the last two precincts came in, and there was no vote change! No precincts come in and the vote changes, and then precincts come in, and there is no vote change. Fancy that. So the TP man has a final 102 vote lead for the night, it seems. Of course, it may be the last two precincts in Bay came in, and favored the guy otherwise losing the county, the obverse of Iosco, but the input guy forgot to change the precincts counted number.

Total   508/508   27,058 27,160

[cinyc]

Kansas R Senate results by county so far (Moran win/leading Blue; Tiahrt win/leading Red; No results Gray):

[Joe Republic]

Here's some better maps of both KS primaries:


KS-Sen: GOP



Moran 49% :: Tiahrt 45%




KS-Sen: DEM



Johnston 31% :: Schollenberger 24% :: Haley 19% :: Wiesner 16%

[RI]

Some have already beat me to these, I see, but I can at least add one more map (and a more complete one):



Kansas:

Blue - Moran
Red - Tiahrt

Michigan:

Blue - Snyder
Red - Hoekstra
Green - Cox

[cinyc]

MI-1 Republican Benishek 27,070 [38%] Allen 27,058 [38%]):

[Shilly]

Bernero in red, Dillon in blue.

[muon2]

2 precincts left - Benishek up by 39 votes.  The last 3 precincts in Iosco were not favorable for him.  Probably will be about a tie.

27,058  27,160

B's lead seem to have expanded to 102 votes, without any more precincts coming in. And there you have it. Two precincts still out in Bay County, which Allen is carrying by a bit. Those two precincts won't generate a 100 vote margin however, I don't think. So Allen needs some votes to come in or something like for B without any more precincts coming in. Stay tuned.

And maybe there are some late absentees or overseas votes left to be counted anyway. I assume there will be a recount.

Well the last two precincts came in, and there was no vote change! No precincts come in and the vote changes, and then precincts come in, and there is no vote change. Fancy that. So the TP man has a final 102 vote lead for the night, it seems. Of course, it may be the last two precincts in Bay came in, and favored the guy otherwise losing the county, the obverse of Iosco, but the input guy forgot to change the precincts counted number.

Total   508/508   27,058 27,160

And now this morning, Benishek's vote total went down without any change for Allen (27,070 to 27,058). That leaves Benishek with a 12 vote lead. Michigan has an automatic recount provision, and I would assume this is close enough, if the law applies to congressional primaries.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Bye Carolyn.

Looks like MI-02 hasn't been called for the Republican, but Bill Huizenga has a 660-vote lead over Jay Riemersma with all the precincts in, so I doubt that will change.

[Sam Spade]

So GOP turnout is going to be about twice that of Dem turnout in Missouri.  Just noting.

Same in Michigan, fwiw.

[Torie]

I wonder why that one county (Decatur) in northwest Kansas went for Tiahrt. It sticks out like a sore thumb.

[Dan the Roman]

2 precincts left - Benishek up by 39 votes.  The last 3 precincts in Iosco were not favorable for him.  Probably will be about a tie.

27,058  27,160

B's lead seem to have expanded to 102 votes, without any more precincts coming in. And there you have it. Two precincts still out in Bay County, which Allen is carrying by a bit. Those two precincts won't generate a 100 vote margin however, I don't think. So Allen needs some votes to come in or something like for B without any more precincts coming in. Stay tuned.

And maybe there are some late absentees or overseas votes left to be counted anyway. I assume there will be a recount.

Well the last two precincts came in, and there was no vote change! No precincts come in and the vote changes, and then precincts come in, and there is no vote change. Fancy that. So the TP man has a final 102 vote lead for the night, it seems. Of course, it may be the last two precincts in Bay came in, and favored the guy otherwise losing the county, the obverse of Iosco, but the input guy forgot to change the precincts counted number.

Total   508/508   27,058 27,160

And now this morning, Benishek's vote total went down without any change for Allen (27,070 to 27,058). That leaves Benishek with a 12 vote lead. Michigan has an automatic recount provision, and I would assume this is close enough, if the law applies to congressional primaries.

Its now down to one vote. Given regional polarization, does anyone think the GOP's shot in the general here took and enormous dive?

[Torie]

Here is a story on the one vote "victory."

[cinyc]

Its now down to one vote. Given regional polarization, does anyone think the GOP's shot in the general here took and enormous dive?

I doubt it.  Some of the regional polarization might be explained by TV market - the Marquette and Wisconsin markets versus Traverse City.  I'll try to do more analysis if I have time tonight.

[Dan the Roman]

Its now down to one vote. Given regional polarization, does anyone think the GOP's shot in the general here took and enormous dive?

I doubt it.  Some of the regional polarization might be explained by TV market - the Marquette and Wisconsin markets versus Traverse City.  I'll try to do more analysis if I have time tonight.

I got the impression Benishek won the UP vote based on regionalism. I would think that if Allen pulls this out in a recount, especially with SEIU help, the UP vote might not be there for him in the general.

[cinyc]

Its now down to one vote. Given regional polarization, does anyone think the GOP's shot in the general here took and enormous dive?

I doubt it.  Some of the regional polarization might be explained by TV market - the Marquette and Wisconsin markets versus Traverse City.  I'll try to do more analysis if I have time tonight.

I got the impression Benishek won the UP vote based on regionalism. I would think that if Allen pulls this out in a recount, especially with SEIU help, the UP vote might not be there for him in the general.

For whatever reason, Benishek won the western UP (Marquette market) but not parts of the eastern UP (Traverse City market).  He also won Alpena County, which is in its own TV market.  I want to do an analysis of the margin in various counties before concluding anything definitive, though.

Where in the district is the Democratic candidate from, anyway?

[Dan the Roman]

http://107.housedems.com/district-map/

Cheboygan County (part)
Koehler township
Tuscarora township
Chippewa County
Emmet County
Mackinac County
 

[cinyc]

http://107.housedems.com/district-map/

Cheboygan County (part)
Koehler township
Tuscarora township
Chippewa County
Emmet County
Mackinac County
 

Thanks.  He appears to be from Chippewa County (Sault Ste. Marie area), which is in the Eastern UP and Traverse City TV market.  Allen is more or less from the same area, but on the Lower Peninsula (the Emmet County part of McDowell's district).  Benishek is from Iron County in the Western UP on the Wisconsin border.

Whether someone from Chippewa County has a better chance of picking up the Western UP than someone from Emmet County is probably debateable.  Stupak was from the Western UP, FWIW.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

So wait, Allen lives outside the district, right? Doesn't that mean that he lost because he (and, presuming he's married, his wife) couldn't vote for himself? I realize that the final count will probably not end in a 1-vote margin for Benishek, but it's still a wonderful thought.

Anyway, here are some quick and dirty maps of a few of the House primaries:

[nclib]

I'm surprised Tiahrt won the KC metro since he is even more conservative than Moran.

[Sam Spade]

I'm surprised Tiahrt won the KC metro since he is even more conservative than Moran.

If Spade's theory as to what the Tea Party actually is happens to be accurate, then it makes a lot of sense.

[cinyc]

So wait, Allen lives outside the district, right? Doesn't that mean that he lost because he (and, presuming he's married, his wife) couldn't vote for himself? I realize that the final count will probably not end in a 1-vote margin for Benishek, but it's still a wonderful thought.

Anyway, here are some quick and dirty maps of a few of the House primaries:

No.  Allen is from Emmet County, which is in the district.  He represents the Eastern UP and Northern LP in the Michigan Senate.