I might note that Celinda Lake is the other half of the Battleground duo, along with Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group. Apparently, they had some sort of a dust-up and have each predicted separate predictions.
I posted his last night.
Here is hers:
http://www.lakesnellperry.com/polls/Prespredict1102.htmLake Snell Perry & Associates Inc. Predict Kerry Victory
November 2, 2004 10:00 a.m. EST
WASHINGTON –Lake Snell Perry & Associates Inc. President Celinda Lake has announced that she predicts a victory for John Kerry in the 2004 Presidential election.
After reviewing the final data from the GW-Battleground Poll, Lake made the following prediction: "If Republicans ARE successful in suppressing Democrats' edge in turnout: 49.9% for Kerry to 49.4% for Bush and .7% for Nader/other. However, if Republicans are NOT successful in suppressing Democrats' edge in turnout, then we would predict a slightly larger margin for Kerry: 50.7% for Kerry to 48.6% for Bush and .7% for Nader/other".
With Republican suppression
John Kerry 49.9%
George Bush 49.4%
Ralph/Other 0.7%
Without Republican suppression
John Kerry 50.7%
George Bush 48.6%
Ralph/Other 0.7%
