Final Kerry-O'Meter Report

[Erc]

The Final Kerry-O'Meter Report (taken at 12:01 EST):

Final Reading:  41.4%

This is the highest reading Kerry has had since I started this a couple weeks ago.

Final Reading, after throwing in MI and OR as possible swing states (OR is so low it doesn't make a difference really):  35.8%

Final Reading, with Florida for Bush:  17.3%

Final Reading, with NM and IA for Bush and PA for Kerry:  10.6%

States included:

PA:  Bush had been hanging around the 30% mark for the longest time--this has since dropped to the long shot of 20.

OH:  Despite a drop to 50 yesterday, this has bounced back to 57.  Has been around 55 for most of the range.

WI:  Was Bush 55-62 for the longest time--dropped over the weekend into the 40's and is now at a pathetic 42.

MN:  Has reached as high as 40 for Bush, but has since dropped into the low 20's  (now at 22)

IA:  Moved up to the low 60's for Bush in the early stages of data collection, dropped into the mid 50's this weekend, and then in a surprise move, dropped into the upper 40's today.  (46.5)

NM:  Started off in the low 30's for Bush and has skyrocketed into the low 60's, where it has remained.

NH:  Has generally remained in the 30-40 range.  Bush has dropped into the low 30's over the weekend (30).

MECD2:  No specific data, I've just been using NH data.

FL:  Has ranged from 55-65.  Now at 59.9.

MI:  Has hit as high as 30, now back into the upper teens.  NOT used in any calculation but the second.  (18.5)

OR:  Steadily in mid-upper teens or very low 20's, has dropped precipitously to the 5-9 range over the weekend. (5.5)  NOT used in any calculation but the second

HI:  After the polling data, it increased from about 5 to the mid 20's.  Has since stabilized in the low 20's (22.1).  Due to its late arrival, NOT used in any calculation but the fourth.

Final Tradesports Prediction:



Bush Victory, 279-259

Closest State:  Iowa.