OH: Rasmussen: Fisher trails Portman

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: Ohio Senator by Rasmussen on 2010-06-30

Summary: D: 39%, R: 43%, I: 4%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[You kip if you want to...]

Rasmussen showing the Democrat behind when polls from every other company since March has had the Democrat ahead? Well, I'd never believe it...

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

All the polls have showed movement towards Portman in the last week or two.

[War on Want]

All the polls have showed movement towards Portman in the last week or two.

Nope.

[xavier110]

+1 for Portman in a few polls does not indicate "movement."

[War on Want]

Fisher had a big movement in a PPP poll that shows him leading by 2.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

You guys are all being extremely foolish about this.


In a race this close, 2 and 3 points toward a single candidate (across multiple polling firms) is as much "movement" as we are going to get from this race for a while. Which I beleive I said just yesterday.


Either pay attention to what I say 100% or don't criticize what I say.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's within the margin of error, it is going to be close either way.  I guess he will have Kasich ahead as well.

[xavier110]

You guys are all being extremely foolish about this.


In a race this close, 2 and 3 points toward a single candidate (across multiple polling firms) is as much "movement" as we are going to get from this race for a while. Which I beleive I said just yesterday.


Either pay attention to what I say 100% or don't criticize what I say.

Movement, at least when I use the word, implies a substantial shift in support. Adding or subtracting one or two points is not significant movement.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

You guys are all being extremely foolish about this.


In a race this close, 2 and 3 points toward a single candidate (across multiple polling firms) is as much "movement" as we are going to get from this race for a while. Which I beleive I said just yesterday.


Either pay attention to what I say 100% or don't criticize what I say.

Movement, at least when I use the word, implies a substantial shift in support. Adding or subtracting one or two points is not significant movement.

The movements haven't been of one point.

2% or greater is "movement" in my book. I know you don't like Hayworth but I am not going to put a glossary of terms in my signature.

What you are talking about as movement I call "A substantial shift in support".

[sg0508]

Both the Senatorial/gubernatorial races in OH will be very tight.

The bad news for the GOP is, if in a year like this where as of now, it appears that they will make significant gains, they can't in Ohio, what are the long-term implications in the state, which is crucial in presidential elections.

[Eraserhead]

You guys are all being extremely foolish about this.


In a race this close, 2 and 3 points toward a single candidate (across multiple polling firms) is as much "movement" as we are going to get from this race for a while. Which I beleive I said just yesterday.


Either pay attention to what I say 100% or don't criticize what I say.

Movement, at least when I use the word, implies a substantial shift in support. Adding or subtracting one or two points is not significant movement.

The movements haven't been of one point.

2% or greater is "movement" in my book.

2% would fall under the margin of error for most polls which means, for all we know, that there wasn't any movement at all. In other words, it doesn't make sense to put too much stock in that kind of movement even if you see it in a few different polls.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would say MO, OH, PA and AZ Governor  are experiencing the same house effect Razzy polls again.

[Saxwsylvania]

I would say MO, OH, PA and AZ Governor  are experiencing the same house effect Razzy polls again.

Can you explain, in detail, what a house effect is?  Thanks.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Statistical movement within the margin of error to achieve a preference of a particular candidate. Surely, you gotta add this to the PA poll where I think OH and MO can be argued. Where it is more of a deadheat than in favor of Toomey.

[Torie]

Statistical movement within the margin of error to achieve a preference of a particular candidate. Surely, you gotta add this to the PA poll where I think OH and MO can be argued. Where it is more of a deadheat than in favor of Toomey.

The above string of words communicated nothing to me. Movements within the margin of error to preference a candidate is supposed to convey  a thought no doubt, however confused that thought may be. I just fail to fathom the confused thought is all.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I wish people would notice several facts about what I said.


1. I never once said that Portman was in the lead.

2. I never said he would take the lead except maybe in August some time.

3. And yes while while margin of error movement is just that, across several polls over the past week (remember what my standard of comparison is when making that statement. My standard of comparison was the post primary bounce that Fisher got that was exhibited again in most polls except Q which hasn't poll since March so I am assuming that Q would have had a march bigger lead in a May poll which had they conducted it then but they didn't so its an assumption and one the makes more sense.

4. If the plantiff will note also that what I said the movement was toward, which was 0% margin, which by the very nature of Portmans previous position of being down a few points would then require a movement toward Portman to bring it back to zero.

Sometimes I think you people only skim for key words and don't grasp my arguements within a single post more or less across several which has occured here.

A month ago several polls said Portman was down by 2 to 4 and Rassy was tied. Now it Portman is within 1 or 2 and leading according to Rassy. In the space of a month across several polling firms, thats as much "movement" as is to be expected in this race so unless you want to keep saying its tied, its tied, its tied, for several months, I would suggest that everyone apply a certain set of standards to this race that aren't appropriate in states with more wide ranges and much more volatillity until such time as this race starts to some some confidence towards one or the other candidate.

That is all.

Statistical movement within the margin of error to achieve a preference of a particular candidate. Surely, you gotta add this to the PA poll where I think OH and MO can be argued. Where it is more of a deadheat than in favor of Toomey.

Which is why I compare polls within each company with their previous polling and then compare the margin of difference with the margin of differences from other companies and when I see such a correlation of movement across the firms, I can confidently say there is some movement in a certain race. But what the movement is towards and from matters and thats what most failed to realize when criticizing me.

I think Toomey has a very very narrow lead.

Also I think the word Toss-up is for cowards. I try to use it only on rare occasions. And Ohio is the only one that would really deserve it for Senate at all and even then I can say it likely still tilts Fisher.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I prefer to think that the GOP and Dems can split these races than one party dominating both the senate and governor races and this is very true that Kasich can win and Fisher can win and vice versa Corbett can win and Sestak can win. I think Rasmussen and Dailykos predicts the most favorable circumstances for their respective parties.

[Zarn]

Rasmussen polling does not have a party.