CA-37 of course guys. azmagic and redcommander said it was winnable!
You tell me when was the last time Republicans put up a candidate as strong as Star Parker there? I said it's possible. Richardson has a bunch of ethics issues and represents a district with about 25% unemployment and a Republican candidate who could actually appeal to the district's voters.
Putting aside everything else, blacks make up about 40% of the electorate I would guess. So when you find some poll with the GOP making inroads among blacks, get back to me.
Not sure about the electorate, but they are 25% of the demographics of the district per the last census. It's less than 17% white though, so there's no mathematical way possible for a Republican to win that district. Joseph Cao's district in Louisiana is about twice as white
The black voting percentage is substantially higher than 25%, since Hispanics tend not to vote much, particularly in this district, where the Hispanic neighborhoods are mostly downscale, and the Asians there would be about in the same category, more or less (outside the Japanese in Gardena maybe). It is no accident that blacks still win in this district in Dem primaries. 40% strikes me as a reasonable guess. And among the whites, there are a considerable number of gays down in Long Beach.
