KY: Public Policy Polling: Conway tied with Paul
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Author Topic: KY: Public Policy Polling: Conway tied with Paul  (Read 5047 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« on: July 06, 2010, 12:38:35 PM »

New Poll: Kentucky Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2010-06-30

Summary: D: 43%, R: 43%, I: 0%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Ronnie
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« Reply #1 on: July 06, 2010, 03:46:54 PM »

...uh oh.
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Holmes
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« Reply #2 on: July 06, 2010, 03:48:17 PM »

I'm subscribing to this thread.
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change08
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: July 06, 2010, 03:51:59 PM »

No doubt Rassy will have a poll out within a few days having Paul up 10. Wink
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #4 on: July 06, 2010, 04:03:39 PM »

No doubt Rassy will have a poll out within a few days having Paul up 10. Wink

And it'll be more accurate, too. The Democrats often forget that Kentucky is a heavily R state in an anti-Democratic year, and is the same place that repeatedly elected Jim Bunning, a much worse person than Rand Paul. They really need to give up on this seat.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #5 on: July 06, 2010, 04:17:14 PM »

Undecideds will break heavily against Obama/Conway by November.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: July 06, 2010, 04:18:39 PM »

Undecideds will break heavily against Obama/Conway by November.

I guess undecides are undecided for a good reason. Going with Obama, who they probably don't like, or an extremist like Rand Paul.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #7 on: July 06, 2010, 04:21:35 PM »

Undecideds will break heavily against Obama/Conway by November.

I guess undecides are undecided for a good reason. Going with Obama, who they probably don't like, or an extremist like Rand Paul.

Unfortunately, Rand Paul is a moderate, but that does mean he will win.
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Holmes
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« Reply #8 on: July 06, 2010, 04:24:06 PM »

This is already getting good.
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change08
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: July 06, 2010, 04:26:41 PM »

Undecideds will break heavily against Obama/Conway by November.

I guess undecides are undecided for a good reason. Going with Obama, who they probably don't like, or an extremist like Rand Paul.

Unfortunately, Rand Paul is a moderate, but that does mean he will win.

I guess you think Sharron Angle's a moderate too...
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Meeker
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« Reply #10 on: July 06, 2010, 04:26:46 PM »

42% of voters now have a negative opinion of Paul. The more Kentucky finds out about Paul the less they like him.
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #11 on: July 06, 2010, 04:34:10 PM »

Undecideds will break heavily against Obama/Conway by November.

I guess undecides are undecided for a good reason. Going with Obama, who they probably don't like, or an extremist like Rand Paul.

Unfortunately, Rand Paul is a moderate, but that does mean he will win.

I guess you think Sharron Angle's a moderate too...

I don't know much about Angle other than what's been said on this website.

Rand Paul is definitely a moderate though. He's no Ron Paul.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: July 06, 2010, 04:37:00 PM »

Undecideds will break heavily against Obama/Conway by November.

I guess undecides are undecided for a good reason. Going with Obama, who they probably don't like, or an extremist like Rand Paul.

Unfortunately, Rand Paul is a moderate, but that does mean he will win.

I guess you think Sharron Angle's a moderate too...

I don't know much about Angle other than what's been said on this website.

Rand Paul is definitely a moderate though. He's no Ron Paul.

If Rand's a moderate then the Tea Partiers are really going against their own thing of only endorsing true Conservatives and working against those they'd consider RINOs (moderates).
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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #13 on: July 06, 2010, 04:42:16 PM »

Undecideds will break heavily against Obama/Conway by November.

I guess undecides are undecided for a good reason. Going with Obama, who they probably don't like, or an extremist like Rand Paul.

Unfortunately, Rand Paul is a moderate, but that does mean he will win.

I guess you think Sharron Angle's a moderate too...

I don't know much about Angle other than what's been said on this website.

Rand Paul is definitely a moderate though. He's no Ron Paul.

If Rand's a moderate then the Tea Partiers are really going against their own thing of only endorsing true Conservatives.

Well I suppose for a Senate race in a state like Kentucky, Rand might be "extreme". For example, he supports legalized medical marijuana, a moderate position in any normal context but perhaps extreme by KY standards. Jack Conway opposes even medical marijuana.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #14 on: July 06, 2010, 06:11:27 PM »

Fantastic, fantastic news IMO. The only thing I need now is a poll showing Reid beating Angle and I can live with what looks to be an otherwise dismal (from a "liberal" point of view) November.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #15 on: July 06, 2010, 06:35:09 PM »

No doubt Rassy will have a poll out within a few days having Paul up 10. Wink

And it'll be more accurate, too. The Democrats often forget that Kentucky is a heavily R state in an anti-Democratic year, and is the same place that repeatedly elected Jim Bunning, a much worse person than Rand Paul. They really need to give up on this seat.

Well, it's actually a heavily Democratic state by registration and Conway seems like exactly the type of Democrat who should be able to appeal to the center-right types that are so prominent in the party there (while still keeping the left appeased).

Also, it seems that people don't care much about the fact that Saddam's son didn't endorse Conway.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #16 on: July 06, 2010, 06:43:52 PM »

Is there something really bullish for Dems about this poll's internals that I'm missing?
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Lunar
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« Reply #17 on: July 06, 2010, 06:47:21 PM »

Yeah this poll doesn't have me excited. 
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #18 on: July 06, 2010, 08:14:48 PM »

Is there something really bullish for Dems about this poll's internals that I'm missing?

The sample is 53-38 McCain, which seems rather optimistic.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #19 on: July 06, 2010, 08:15:29 PM »

Conway being at 43% in even the best poll for him is not something that should get Dems too excited.

Wake me up when the tie's 47-47 or so.
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Torie
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« Reply #20 on: July 06, 2010, 10:08:52 PM »

Is there something really bullish for Dems about this poll's internals that I'm missing?

The sample is 53-38 McCain, which seems rather optimistic.

That was my thought. It seems like a fair sample from a partisan and viewpoint standpoint. Is there something I am missing. That it may be a majority of the undecideds are inclined to vote for Rand, but want to be convinced that he is not a kook, and will not prove to be an embarrassment, a joke, and ineffective as a legislator. That of course is just idle speculation on my part.
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SPQR
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« Reply #21 on: July 08, 2010, 12:46:34 PM »

Undecideds will break heavily against Obama/Conway by November.

I guess undecides are undecided for a good reason. Going with Obama, who they probably don't like, or an extremist like Rand Paul.

Unfortunately, Rand Paul is a moderate, but that does mean he will win.
Are you real?
I mean,are most republicans this hackish and right-wingish?
If true,then I might have new thoughts about how stupid Italian PDL and Lega voters are...
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Badger
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« Reply #22 on: July 09, 2010, 02:10:01 PM »

Is there something really bullish for Dems about this poll's internals that I'm missing?

Yeah this poll doesn't have me excited. 

OK. Could either/both of you please elaborate for the rest of us (particularly as the link here leads to PPP's breakdown of the NC Senate race rather than KY's)?
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Grumpier Than Uncle Joe
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« Reply #23 on: July 09, 2010, 02:23:27 PM »

Is there something really bullish for Dems about this poll's internals that I'm missing?

Yeah this poll doesn't have me excited. 

OK. Could either/both of you please elaborate for the rest of us (particularly as the link here leads to PPP's breakdown of the NC Senate race rather than KY's)?

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2010/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=21302010630108
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #24 on: July 09, 2010, 02:52:50 PM »

Is there something really bullish for Dems about this poll's internals that I'm missing?

Yeah this poll doesn't have me excited. 

OK. Could either/both of you please elaborate for the rest of us (particularly as the link here leads to PPP's breakdown of the NC Senate race rather than KY's)?

You can find the internals on PPPs site, since dubois is a real incompetent.

Couple of points:
1) The poll is a bit too Democratic for Kentucky (see exit polls or even SUSA priors)
2) Historically, when a Republican gets 20% of Dems in KY, it becomes difficult for Dems to win.  Impossible at 25%.

Of course, nothing is written in stone at this point.  At all.
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