SD-AL: Rassmusen: Noem has slight lead

[Vepres]

Kristi Noem (R) - 49
Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D) - 44

Just barely within the margin of error. Of note, Noem leads among independents 50 - 35

link

[Badger]

With indies breaking that strong for Noem and each candidate getting about 3/4 of their own party's voters, I'm surprised the overall numbers are that close. The SD Sec. of State website shows as of June Republicans had about a 6 to 5 registration advantage over Democrats (and, surprising to me, less than 1/6 of voters registered as independents). Unless SD Dems are somehow notably more likely to vote than GOP or indie voters there, Rassy's numbers may actually somewhat amplify SHS's strength.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I said this before Hearseth will be reelected.

[Rowan]

I said this before Hearseth will be reelected.

Oh well since YOU said it, it must naturally be true. I bet Herseth-Sandlin is sleeping well tonight knowing that she is going to cruise to victory now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This'd be a huge swing from 2008, fwiw. Over 20pt Butler swing, I think.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We haven't had a non rasmussen poll from the other poll that was taken when it was more than double digits and she is closing the gap, I think she is in much better position now than before.

[ajc0918]

I hope Noem and Berg win. It's always bothered me that North and South Dakota both have democratic reps.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     This is an 8% swing over the course of a month. This is very bad news for Herseth. Unfortunately this is a House seat, so it is unlikely that any other polls will come out any time soon to corroborate this.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

     This is an 8% swing over the course of a month. This is very bad news for Herseth. Unfortunately this is a House seat, so it is unlikely that any other polls will come out any time soon to corroborate this.

Not quite, the last Rasmussen poll (post-primary) had Noem winning 53-41. So this is a swing back to SHS.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     This is an 8% swing over the course of a month. This is very bad news for Herseth. Unfortunately this is a House seat, so it is unlikely that any other polls will come out any time soon to corroborate this.

Not quite, the last Rasmussen poll (post-primary) had Noem winning 53-41. So this is a swing back to SHS.

     My apologies. The last poll I was aware of was the one that was posted here in the beginning of June.