Rasmussen in Florida!
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 09:28:37 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  Rasmussen in Florida!
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Rasmussen in Florida!  (Read 2781 times)
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: March 15, 2004, 04:32:03 PM »

Rasmussen Reports just released their Florida poll.  Here it is:

Kerry 48%
Bush 45%
Other 2%
Not Sure 6%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Florida_March%2013.htm

Compare that with the Miami Herald Results:

Kerry 49%
Bush 43%

And the ARG Results:

Kerry 45%
Bush 44%
Logged
California Dreamer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 445


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2004, 04:46:07 PM »

the most interesting thing in this is that Kerry supporters are more solid than Bush's

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

I think that turnout for the dems in Florida is going to be huge, any Dem that stayed home in 2000 has been blaming himself or herself for Bush winning.
Logged
Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
HockeyDude
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,376
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: March 15, 2004, 04:54:29 PM »

the most interesting thing in this is that Kerry supporters are more solid than Bush's

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

I think that turnout for the dems in Florida is going to be huge, any Dem that stayed home in 2000 has been blaming himself or herself for Bush winning.

It's very possible.  I consider Florida a Bush lean, but if things don't get better for him, he will lose Florida.  Dem turnout is going to be huge this election, and is the sole reason I think Kerry is going to win.  
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: March 15, 2004, 04:55:30 PM »

the most interesting thing in this is that Kerry supporters are more solid than Bush's

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

I think that turnout for the dems in Florida is going to be huge, any Dem that stayed home in 2000 has been blaming himself or herself for Bush winning.

It's very possible.  I consider Florida a Bush lean, but if things don't get better for him, he will lose Florida.  Dem turnout is going to be huge this election, and is the sole reason I think Kerry is going to win.  

I consider Florida a tossup with a GOP leaning. Smiley
Logged
zachman
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,096


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: March 15, 2004, 05:24:12 PM »

It seems Democratic leaning with these polls.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: March 15, 2004, 05:24:50 PM »

It seems Democratic leaning with these polls.

America seems Demcorat leaning with these polls. Wink
Logged
Nym90
nym90
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,260
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -2.96

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: March 15, 2004, 06:08:24 PM »

Yeah, I really don't get why everyone is saying that Florida leans to Bush, I guess just because the GOP did well there in 2002, but I really don't see any reason why Florida should be more solid for Bush this time than last time. Even with these polls, people still seem to suggest that Florida leans Bush. It doesn't really make sense. It's a pure toss up, as it was in 2000.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: March 15, 2004, 06:11:09 PM »

Yeah, I really don't get why everyone is saying that Florida leans to Bush, I guess just because the GOP did well there in 2002, but I really don't see any reason why Florida should be more solid for Bush this time than last time. Even with these polls, people still seem to suggest that Florida leans Bush. It doesn't really make sense. It's a pure toss up, as it was in 2000.

The Jewish vote will be harder for Kerry.
Logged
angus
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,423
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: March 15, 2004, 06:11:45 PM »

Think about it Nym, one poll is from Rasmussen, the other is from Miami Herald.  That's like a taste-test between Old Milwaukee and Sam Adams.  That said, the ARG shows a tie.  Probably that's the truest.  But these polls don't matter.  There is only one poll that matters.  And George Bush won't allow himself to lose that one.
Logged
zachman
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,096


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: March 15, 2004, 06:22:47 PM »

Jews will not vote for Bush. Except for the richest ones in the northeast.
Logged
agcatter
agcat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,740


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: March 15, 2004, 06:28:17 PM »

He will do better among that group than he did in 2000 - by at least10% is my current guess.
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: March 15, 2004, 06:29:48 PM »

He will do better among that group than he did in 2000 - by at least10% is my current guess.

More like 3-5%
Logged
agcatter
agcat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,740


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: March 15, 2004, 06:32:02 PM »

In Florida, I'll take 3 - 5 %.  That would have been big in 2000.
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,143


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: March 15, 2004, 06:34:05 PM »

I'm tired of all these Florida polls.  Let's see something from Ohio!
Logged
agcatter
agcat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,740


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: March 15, 2004, 06:37:10 PM »

I second that.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: March 15, 2004, 06:43:04 PM »


Me too.
Logged
dunn
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,053


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: March 16, 2004, 03:22:40 AM »

Jews will not vote for Bush. Except for the richest ones in the northeast.

they are moving to Florida when they get old
Logged
CTguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 742


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: March 16, 2004, 07:50:05 AM »

Even if he does 3% better among Jews in Florida, that will hardly make up for the fact that he will do worse among Cubans, who voted for him at an 8-1 ratio last time.  They are unhappy with some of his Castro policies.  Not to mention there is no Elian Gonzalez saga.  Last election the Cuban turnout was  extremely high, there was an article in the Miami paper predicting that the turnout among Cubans will be much lower.  

That is going to make things much harder for Bush.  It was the Cuban vote that made him competitive in South Florida.  If he loses 100,000 votes down there, he probably won't have enough to offset losses in Palm Beach and Broward Counties and Dade's non cuban population.
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: March 16, 2004, 03:34:53 PM »

Kerry will also do substantially better than Gore did among Muslims.  Approx. 60,000 Muslims voted in Florida and favored Bush with about 80%.  that number could be reversed come 2004.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.047 seconds with 12 queries.