How long will Kerry carry this on?

[Jake]

Any comments on how long they will carry it on?  I say they will file suits in IA & OH.  It'll last until about Dec 1st.

[Nation]

Ugh, I don't want to know. If this turns into a litigation battle while Kerry is losing the PV by 3+%, I'll change my registration to Republican.

[MarkDel]

Kevin,

That certainly speaks well of you.

[Silent Hunter]

Probably for a few days. It's too late, this is over. Kerry's lost the PV- a legal challenge looks like desparation.

The provisional ballots won't be enough to swing it.

Senator, just concede.

The picture you're all waiting for:

[minionofmidas]

Well, I will concede if Kerry doesn't. Iowa might hold yet, but Ohio is Republican.

[kevinatcausa]

What's been suggested in another thread (and I agree with) is as follows:

If the number of announced provisional ballots is less than the margin, Kerry should concede immediately.  If not, they should start examining the provisionals to see which should be thrown out and which should be accepted.

If the number of acceptable provisionals drops below Bush's margin, Kerry should concede immediately.  If not, start counting them.

If (as will very likely happen) the remaining provisionals aren't enough to push Kerry over, then Kerry should concede.  If Kerry ends up after the provisionals are counted (and barring any obvious occurrence of fraud in those ballots), Kerry wins.

The worst case scenario here is a couple week's delay on the "official" concession.  On the other hand...

If Kerry concedes immediately and they count the provisionals anyway, what happens in the (unlikely but possible) case that the provisionals are enough to make a difference?

If Kerry concedes and they don't bother with the provisionals, we'll be stuck with people whispering in low voices that Kerry would have won Ohio if only they counted all the votes.

[minionofmidas]

They have to count them, of course.
Yes, what you describe is obviously the only reasonable way to proceed - but it would look good if Kerry went out right now and admitted that, beyond that very reasonable doubt, he won't be taking over on january 20th.

[Nym90]

What's been suggested in another thread (and I agree with) is as follows:

If the number of announced provisional ballots is less than the margin, Kerry should concede immediately.  If not, they should start examining the provisionals to see which should be thrown out and which should be accepted.

If the number of acceptable provisionals drops below Bush's margin, Kerry should concede immediately.  If not, start counting them.

If (as will very likely happen) the remaining provisionals aren't enough to push Kerry over, then Kerry should concede.  If Kerry ends up after the provisionals are counted (and barring any obvious occurrence of fraud in those ballots), Kerry wins.

The worst case scenario here is a couple week's delay on the "official" concession.  On the other hand...

If Kerry concedes immediately and they count the provisionals anyway, what happens in the (unlikely but possible) case that the provisionals are enough to make a difference?

If Kerry concedes and they don't bother with the provisionals, we'll be stuck with people whispering in low voices that Kerry would have won Ohio if only they counted all the votes.

I agree; count all the votes first. If the race is then extremely close, a recount may be warranted; however, in all liklihood it won't be, and thus Kerry should concede then.

Bush won the popular vote, so he is in my eyes the true winner of the election, regardless. I believed it in 2000, and I still do today; I have a consistent stance on this.

That being said, the fact that Kerry lost the popular vote should not factor into his decision whether or not to concede, as some have suggested. Should Bush have conceded in 2000 since he lost the popular vote? For better or for worse, the Electoral College is the rules of the game, and the popular vote shouldn't be a factor in whether or not a candidate concedes.

[??????????]

145k is NOT and I repeat not Close. Obviously a certain candidate has no concern for the good of the USA.

[dougrhess]

145k is NOT and I repeat not Close. Obviously a certain candidate has no concern for the good of the USA.

Obviously, you're just here to troll.

[??????????]

145k is NOT and I repeat not Close. Obviously a certain candidate has no concern for the good of the USA.

Obviously, you're just here to troll.

 off.

[dougrhess]

"Bush leads by 135,000 votes, while there are as many as 250,000 provisional ballots remaining to be counted."

[minionofmidas]

145k is NOT and I repeat not Close. Obviously a certain candidate has no concern for the good of the USA.

Anyone claiming that two percentage points isn't "close" obviously better have his maths skills checked.
Or maybe it's the English language skills - there's a difference between "close" and "too close to call" (which this is only at quite a stretch of the imagination). Can you spot it, States?

[??????????]

"Bush leads by 135,000 votes, while there are as many as 250,000 provisional ballots remaining to be counted."

Donald Duck is not a valid voter. No way Kerry gets 80% of the provisional ballots. I know the Democrats want to steal this election but it ain't gonna work, ok?

[??????????]

145k is NOT and I repeat not Close. Obviously a certain candidate has no concern for the good of the USA.

Anyone claiming that two percentage points isn't "close" obviously better have his maths skills checked.
Or maybe it's the English language skills - there's a difference between "close" and "too close to call" (which this is only at quite a stretch of the imagination). Can you spot it, States?

Fine then recount every state that was within 200k votes. Its only fair. This country is screwed with all these damn laywers.

[minionofmidas]

They're counting, not recounting. And judging ballots' legitimacy before that.
I totally agree that, barring a midsized miracle, Bush has carried Ohio, and the networks should say so. But they still should count every darn vote, shouldn't they?

[??????????]

They're counting, not recounting. And judging ballots' legitimacy before that.
I totally agree that, barring a midsized miracle, Bush has carried Ohio, and the networks should say so. But they still should count every darn vote, shouldn't they?

Yes, but if its obvious you won't win you should concede.

[FireFighterForBush]

Bush should call for a recount in PA!!!!!!!!! sheesh give up Kerry you lost fair and square

[minionofmidas]

They're counting, not recounting. And judging ballots' legitimacy before that.
I totally agree that, barring a midsized miracle, Bush has carried Ohio, and the networks should say so. But they still should count every darn vote, shouldn't they?

Yes, but if its obvious you won't win you should concede.

I have, for my part.

[dazzleman]

I think it's perfectly OK for Kerry to wait until all the votes are counted in Ohio.  He owes his supporters that much.

But if the current margin holds up, there should be no recounts or legal challenges.  If Kerry launches legal challenges to the Ohio results, that would be disgraceful.

This is not 2000.  Bush has a comfortable margin in Ohio of about 140,000 votes, not the 1,800 votes or so that he had in Florida in 2000.  And he has a pretty substantial win in the popular vote of about 3.5 million.  This is the first time since Bush's father first ran in 1988 that a candidate captured a majority of the popular vote rather than a plurality.

I think Bush's campaign is right not to try to stampede Kerry into conceding while they're still counting votes for the first time, but the next move is up to Kerry.  If he responds like a little girl, and starts challenging everything with his lawyers, I think it will reflect badly on the Democrats.  We can't let this type of thing become a staple of each presidential election.

[Silent Hunter]

Say there are 200,000 provisional ballots.

To overcome the 140,000 lead, Kerry needs to win the ballots by 140,000 or more.

That's 170,000 ballots (the GOP would get 30,000) or 85% to Kerry. Somehow I think that's not going to happen.

[NHPolitico]

Actually, call me naive, but I think Kerry ends this by noon today. Democrat supporters in the MSM have already made it clear the election is over for Kerry. He has no backing from the MSM and he has no popular vote support. Besides, Democrats want to get started on 2008. They can't as long as they are dealing with Kerry's concession announcement.

[dougrhess]

"Officials in Ohio now suggest the number of provision ballots is closer to 140,000, with Bush maintaining a vote lead of approximately 136,000 votes. Even if the provisional ballot number inches up closer to the 160,000 range, and 90 percent of those are found to legitimate, which was the rate in Ohio during the 2000 campaign, that means Kerry would have to capture more than 90 percent of those."

Just in from Salon.com. Doesn't look good.

[Bogart]

The problem with Kerry waiting until the provisionals are counted--especially in the face of the statistical likelihood that he has lost OH--is that they won't be counted for at least 10 days. I can't see the logic in holding up the concession for 10 or more days for no other reason than to exercise their "count all the votes" mantra.

[Gabu]

I only have two words:

NOT AGAIN