DE: Rasmussen: Coons closing in on Castle

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: Delaware Senator (Special) by Rasmussen on 2010-7-14

Summary: D: 36%, R: 47%, I: 6%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Associate Justice PiT]

     So Castle's lead was cut in half from the last poll, huh? Ouch for him.

[You kip if you want to...]

I've ignored this race, assuming it was safe for the GOP. Any reason why it's gotten closer?

[Shilly]

Looks like Rasmussen is easing into "get it right" mode.

[xavier110]

I've ignored this race, assuming it was safe for the GOP. Any reason why it's gotten closer?

Because all of Rasmussen's other polls have gotten closer?

[sg0508]

Gotta put a few polls together to see if it's an outlier.  If the next poll puts Castle up 10 or so, then suddenly, it's a race again.

The fact that he's below 50% in this race is very disturbing because once voters start opening up to changing, you're probably not getting their vote back.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Wow, this might actually be entertaining.

[Torie]

Has anyone asked Ras if he changed his turnout model, or does he think there is a real movement back to the Dems?

[Holmes]

I've ignored this race, assuming it was safe for the GOP. Any reason why it's gotten closer?

Honestly, who knew this "Coons" guy a few months ago? I hardly even know him now. Despite that, I fully expect 55 - 45 for Castle at the end of the day.

I mean, it's not like 36% is anything to be proud of... sure Castle is below 50, but.

[Lunar]

I've ignored this race, assuming it was safe for the GOP. Any reason why it's gotten closer?

Honestly, who knew this "Coons" guy a few months ago?

County Executive of the state's most populous county, seems to have done a good job at it and all.

fwiw, In 1972 with that seat, there was a two-term Republican incumbent Senator and two-term former-Governor (CalebBoggs) that Nixon himself personally intervened to encourage him to run again, and no other Democrat dared to challenge Boggs, as he was presumed a guaranteed victor, except a New Castle City Councilman nobody heard of named Joe Biden, partially because Boggs ran an unexciting campaign.

[Lunar]

I just attempted to order a Chris Coons bumper sticker from his website!  Let's see if it arrives!  I gave them the phone number for a Chinese food place in Alphabet City though.  I don't give out my phone number since I once did for a GOP campaign I wanted email blasts from and had the NRA calling me at work to come show up to a gun rights rally "Hello?  Who is this!  Yes I support the 2nd Amendment.  No, I don't want to go to a gun-rights rally, I don't own a gun or ever intend to.  Oh, okay, I guess I see your point that that doesn't matter, but um.. I really got to go now, don't call me again, bye!"

I always take campaigns up on free sticker offers to decorate my laptop, so it's no Coons specialty or anything

[Holmes]

You love his bald spot.

[Lunar]

You love his bald spot.

Spot?  Does James Carville have a "bald spot" too then?

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

I've ignored this race, assuming it was safe for the GOP. Any reason why it's gotten closer?

Honestly, who knew this "Coons" guy a few months ago?

County Executive of the state's most populous county, seems to have done a good job at it and all.

fwiw, In 1972 with that seat, there was a two-term Republican incumbent Senator and two-term former-Governor (CalebBoggs) that Nixon himself personally intervened to encourage him to run again, and no other Democrat dared to challenge Boggs, as he was presumed a guaranteed victor, except a New Castle City Councilman nobody heard of named Joe Biden, partially because Boggs ran an unexciting campaign.

Considering Castle's age and lack of competition for the last few years, this is a very possible outcome.  Chris Coons could become the next Joe Biden (in terms of electoral performance)

[Holmes]

You love his bald spot.

Spot?  Does James Carville have a "bald spot" too then?

It's a very big spot! Don't judge.

[Kevin]

I've ignored this race, assuming it was safe for the GOP. Any reason why it's gotten closer?

Honestly, who knew this "Coons" guy a few months ago?

County Executive of the state's most populous county, seems to have done a good job at it and all.

fwiw, In 1972 with that seat, there was a two-term Republican incumbent Senator and two-term former-Governor (CalebBoggs) that Nixon himself personally intervened to encourage him to run again, and no other Democrat dared to challenge Boggs, as he was presumed a guaranteed victor, except a New Castle City Councilman nobody heard of named Joe Biden, partially because Boggs ran an unexciting campaign.

I'm actually in Delaware right now on vacation and nether campaign shows any signs of being active. For example, I haven't seen any bumper stickers, campaign yard signs, billboards, functions etc for ether Castle or Coons. Hell, just to get a gauge of things I'm thinking about asking random residents on the street who they support, but without being representative of any campaign or any project that would just be awkward.

[Smash255]

Castle's voting record has seemed to be quite a bit more conservative and partisan than he has been in the past.  Perhaps that is starting to catch up to him?

[Lief 🗽]

I just attempted to order a Chris Coons bumper sticker from his website!  Let's see if it arrives!  I gave them the phone number for a Chinese food place in Alphabet City though.  I don't give out my phone number since I once did for a GOP campaign I wanted email blasts from and had the NRA calling me at work to come show up to a gun rights rally "Hello?  Who is this!  Yes I support the 2nd Amendment.  No, I don't want to go to a gun-rights rally, I don't own a gun or ever intend to.  Oh, okay, I guess I see your point that that doesn't matter, but um.. I really got to go now, don't call me again, bye!"

I always take campaigns up on free sticker offers to decorate my laptop, so it's no Coons specialty or anything

Is a sticker reading "COONS" on your laptop really the best idea in a city like New York?

[Kevin]

I just attempted to order a Chris Coons bumper sticker from his website!  Let's see if it arrives!  I gave them the phone number for a Chinese food place in Alphabet City though.  I don't give out my phone number since I once did for a GOP campaign I wanted email blasts from and had the NRA calling me at work to come show up to a gun rights rally "Hello?  Who is this!  Yes I support the 2nd Amendment.  No, I don't want to go to a gun-rights rally, I don't own a gun or ever intend to.  Oh, okay, I guess I see your point that that doesn't matter, but um.. I really got to go now, don't call me again, bye!"

I always take campaigns up on free sticker offers to decorate my laptop, so it's no Coons specialty or anything

Is a sticker reading "COONS" on your laptop really the best idea in a city like New York?

Which leads to the question of what percentage of the black vote will Chris get?

[Sbane]

Has anyone asked Ras if he changed his turnout model, or does he think there is a real movement back to the Dems?

I obviously haven't asked him, but it does seem like he is changing his turnout model to a more realistic one. I wouldn't be surprised if a few more slight adjustments happen over the summer. In the spring time he was setting a narrative and pleasing his Republican clients. Now that summer is here, it's time to get serious.

[Dgov]

Castle's voting record has seemed to be quite a bit more conservative and partisan than he has been in the past.  Perhaps that is starting to catch up to him?

I think it's more that Coons is a strong, but relatively unknown candidate that's increasing his profile.  The new guy always start off slow against the dedcade-long incumbent, and Castle has a moderate enough voting record for a Republican were some Left-leaners might start off voting for him before they find a more fitting alternative.

Castle has also been acting like this election is merely a formality, which I'm going to start calling "Coakley Syndrome" after it's most famous victim.  He's spent the last few months doing next to nothing.

But still, it'll take something big to shift this race to the Democrats.  Castle has won in exactly the same constituency close to a dozen times, and in a good Republican year he shouldn't have any trouble doing it again.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Castle's voting record has seemed to be quite a bit more conservative and partisan than he has been in the past.  Perhaps that is starting to catch up to him?

He's suddenly veered back to the left in the past month or two. If you look at recent House votes, a lot of them only have two Republicans voting with the Democrats: Castle and Cao. Probably he's decided he can afford to piss off the Republicans without endangering the nomination (especially since O'Donnell is a nutcase).

As an aside, it looks like Beau Biden will be unopposed for re-election as Attorney General.

[Lunar]

I just attempted to order a Chris Coons bumper sticker from his website!  Let's see if it arrives!  I gave them the phone number for a Chinese food place in Alphabet City though.  I don't give out my phone number since I once did for a GOP campaign I wanted email blasts from and had the NRA calling me at work to come show up to a gun rights rally "Hello?  Who is this!  Yes I support the 2nd Amendment.  No, I don't want to go to a gun-rights rally, I don't own a gun or ever intend to.  Oh, okay, I guess I see your point that that doesn't matter, but um.. I really got to go now, don't call me again, bye!"

I always take campaigns up on free sticker offers to decorate my laptop, so it's no Coons specialty or anything

Is a sticker reading "COONS" on your laptop really the best idea in a city like New York?

haha, good point

[The Mikado]

I don't see this race getting really competitive unless Castle's health issues rear their head.  That said, Castle's not going to walk away with this.  He has a roof of around 57~% against a reasonably serious candidate, and the earlier prediction of 55-45 sounds about right.

[Saxwsylvania]

Castle's health is the elephant in the room.  Beyond that, beware of unwilling candidates; they often unconsciously sabotage themselves in the end.  That said, Castle should still be the heavy favorite, and it's a summer poll.