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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Nevada
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Author Topic: Nevada  (Read 2018 times)
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Junior Chimp
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« on: November 03, 2004, 01:37:43 PM »

Bush may have won Nevada 51-48, but give Kerry some credit -- I think it's clear that a few Democrats have moved in over the last four years.

Maybe it was Yucca Mountain, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Nevada as a possible toss-up in 2008. Virginia? Forget it, Philip was right (bleh).
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2004, 01:39:44 PM »

Kerry might have won Nevada and New Mexico, but he got killed among the Hispanic vote. (nationwide as well)

Bush won 42% of the Hispanic vote.

Dems in 2008 will have to much better there.
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dazzleman
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2004, 01:46:24 PM »

Clearly, Bush's latino outreach did the trick in those southwestern states like New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado.

Kerry typically flip-flopped on the Yucca Mountain issue, having first responsibly voted in favor of safeguarding dangerous nuclear material at Yucca Mountain, rather than leaving it spread around the country and vulnerable to terrorists, but changed his stand when it became politically expedient.

That was probably a big factor in Bush's relatively poor performance in Nevada.
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Erc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2004, 02:24:24 PM »

Bush won Nevada by the same margin this year that he did in 2000 (if I remember correctly)
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elcorazon
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2004, 03:25:34 PM »

I wonder if Kerry had picked Richardson if it might have carried NM and NV for him.  It still wouldn't have mattered, however, unless he could win Ohio.
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dazzleman
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2004, 04:51:10 PM »

I wonder if Kerry had picked Richardson if it might have carried NM and NV for him.  It still wouldn't have mattered, however, unless he could win Ohio.

Kerry could have focused on 3 areas in his VP pick - the south, the upper midwest, or the soutwest.

I think his decision to focus on the south was probably the worst choice, because even with Edwards he had little to no chance of winning anything there.

The southwest may have provided a path to victory without Ohio, if he could have pulled it off - Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada.  Or he could have focused on the midwest and upper midwest.

It's Monday morning quarterbacking, but it's pretty clear that Edwards delivered nothing, and may have been a drag on the ticket.  I also thought Edwards' part of the concession speech was awful - just that nasty defiance that we have come to expect from certain segments of the Democratic party, and it compared very badly to the much more gracious speech by Sen. Kerry.  Maybe it was deliberate that they created that contrast.
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Alcon
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2004, 05:16:15 PM »

Bush won Nevada by the same margin this year that he did in 2000 (if I remember correctly)

Yes, he did. However, Bush won by 3 this time. He lost by a little less than 1 last time. That's almost a four-point move. Kerry managed a good total in Clark County and flipped Washoe County, which went 9 for Bush in 2000. Nevada will remain a razor-thin Republican-leaning toss-up in 2008, I think, but there's no huge Dem trend.

VA was a bust.
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