Your good calls

[patrick1]

Anyone care to post their good calls and correct predictions and prove how brilliant we all are:)
Quote from: jfern on October 28, 2004, 04:18:03 pm
Quote from: patrick1 on October 28, 2004, 04:14:03 pm
If Bush only loses Stark county by 1% he will win Ohio.

Right, every county in Ohio is 100% correlated with every other county.

No, in my analysis of the state, *I think* that if Kerry were only to win Stark by 1%- I think Bush's support in Southern Ohio would carry him to victory.

Kerry 51% Bush 49%-Actual result

[Silent Hunter]

I said that the 2:1 rule wouldn't hold and that the new voters had been factored into the polls and Bush remained ahead.

I called this correctly. I had some doubts when I saw the turnout figures (early numbers were saying 125 million, it was actually 115), but I was proved right.

I said that if we got a bad internal leaked, that campaign was in serious trouble. One was leaked from the Kerry campaign, and we all know what happened.

[elcorazon]

I correctly predicted that Kentucky & Indiana would be the first projections of the night for Bush.  I also predicted Obama would get 70% of the vote - DEAD ON.  Other than that, not so good, although, like everyone else none of the results shocked me; I just mistakenly (hopefully?) expected a mini-surge at the end for Kerry so that he might pull out the close battlegrounds.

[A18]

My only good calls:

--Congress will be more Republican
--In a close to even race, Bush will get about 54% of the vote in VA
--FL is an increasingly Republican state

[J. J.]

I believe I was was 0.5% of the PV.  

Of course, J. J.'s Second Rule of Elections proved out as well.  

The advice for Kerry to abandon FL and concentrate on the mid west, probably should have been heeded.