Gallup: More States Competitive in Terms of Party Identification

[sentinel]

Damnit, I wrote this entire thing out and then I pressed the wrong button and it was all gone! I'm going to do it again now so you best respond

I originally wrote out almost everything for this, but since its the second time I'm doing it, I'm going to condense it a bit.

Dark Blue/Red: Solid Republican/Democratic
Light Blue/Red: Leans Republican/Democratic
Gray: Competitive in terms of party identification

2008 EV:
Dem: 281
Rep: 63
Competitive: 194

2012 EV:
Dem: 285
Rep: 69

The Gallup article pretty much states that the Democrats are losing their lead in terms of party identification. I want to look at if these party identification trends can translate into the way that particular state votes for President. However; if all the Democrats came out to vote for their party (impossible but it is worth stating) the Democratic candidate would win the Electoral College.

I'm comparing Gallup's results with the outcome of the past 4 Presidential elections (2 Rep wins and 2 Dem wins)

First I looked at the states that Gallup listed as Democratic and found which ones were not reliably Democratic -these states voted 50% or less of the time for the Democratic candidate:

Ohio (50%), Nevada (50%), West Virginia (25%), Kentucky (25%).

All 4 of these states will be taken off the map for 2012 but only Nevada and Ohio will be put into the tossup category.

I'm sure you'll agree that West Virginia and Kentucky will not be voting for President Obama in 2012 and should be put into the Republican column, for a few reasons 1) They voted heavily for McCain in 2008 after 8 years of an unpopular Republican administration 2) Race 3) President Obama's perception as a socialist/fascist/insane will especially come to play in rural areas in both states.


On the Republican side in Gallup's survey, we have only one state that has voted 50% or less of the time for the Republican candidate. New Hampshire. They'll be put into my toss up column.

2008 EV:
Dem:243
Rep: 72

2012 EV:

Dem: 238
Rep: 75

Now its time for the states that Gallup lists as competitive.

Texas, Idaho, North Dakota, Mississippi, Georgia and Oklahoma have voted 100% of the last 4 elections for the Republican candidate. They are safely in the Republican column.

Minnesota has voted Democratic 100% of the last 4 elections. Democratic column.

Now, for some state-by state calls:

Colorado: Voted for Obama with a 8.6% margin, Bush 2004 by 5%, Bush 2000 by 8.36% and Dole by no more than 1.37%.  Even though Obama won by such a large margin, I think he could easily lose it if his approvals are not high. Toss up.

Iowa: Voted in 75% of the last 4 elections for the Democrat. Democratic column.

Missouri: Voted for Clinton in 1996. Nearly voted for Obama in 2008. Is this the result of "regional" candidates? Clinton and Obama were both from border states of Missouri. To be safe, this goes in the Toss Up column, however; like Colorado, if Obama's approvals are in the 40's or below I can see this easily voting Republican.

Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana: Arkansas voted for Clinton twice, but this is not a happening thing for Obama. Republican column.

Florida: Pure toss up. Voted for 2 Republicans and 2 Democrats in the past 4 elections. Don't argue about 2000.

Virginia and North Carolina: Both of these states were won by Obama in 2008 but Virginia has not gone Democratic in the last 10 elections and North Carolina not since 1976.  Is Obama's win the result of a demographic trend, high voter turnout and a want for change? Probably. Can he re-create this in 2012?

If Obama is popular these states will vote for him again, however, if Obama looks like he's in for a big win in the polls, I can definitely see Democrats, especially young people, not coming out to vote in these two states and as a result, they flip Republican. Both parties will have to fight hard to win these two. Toss Up.

Indiana: Fluke in 2008, won't make the same mistake again. Republican column.

EV 2008:
Dem: 260
Rep: 174

EV 2012:
Dem: 254
Rep: 180

Winning Florida puts the Democrats over the top.

What I think 2012 will look like with Obama's approval above 47%

Democrats: 301
Republicans: 237

[memphis]

You need to consider the results of the 2010 census in the 2012 electoral count.

[sentinel]

You need to consider the results of the 2010 census in the 2012 electoral count.

I'm using 270towin's numbers for 2012.

[memphis]

You need to consider the results of the 2010 census in the 2012 electoral count.

I'm using 270towin's numbers for 2012.

They just use the old 2000 census numbers. We don't really know exactly how the new census will turn out, but you could make a reasonable guess that would be a lot better than the 2000 numbers.,

[Yelnoc]

North Carolina won't break again for Obama, he's old news now and conservatives will be a lot more mobilized in 2012 while Blacks probably won't have as high of a turnout as in 2008.  So put them in the Republican column.  Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and New Hampshire are all legitamite swing states.  It really depends on who the GOP nominates, how the economy is doing, and what's going on in the rest of the world, all things very hard to predict.