Divided or Mandate?

[J. J.]

Doesn't matter.  Bush governed as if he had a mandate for the last 4 years anyway.  He'll continue to do so, only more so.  This time he actually got the most votes AND he picked up support in both houses of Congress.  I suspect we'll be in for  more tax cuts, bigger budget deficits, a weak economy, and more war and deaths overseas, with a continual terror threat, along with little movement toward peace between the Israelis and Palestineans.  I only hope that Stevens and Ginsburg can remain on the court for 4 more years.  I'm sure Rhenquist and O'Connor will retire soon.

True. He'll have to satisfy a lot of moderate Republican Senators now though. McCain and whatshisname from IN on the foreign relations committee have been pretty pissed about Iraq.

Cheney did say mandate in his comments today.

Richard Lugar

[J. J.]

Neither.

The majority made it's cloice clear, but it was not an overwhelming majority.  There is clear majority support for one party, something that hasn't happend since 1976 or 1980.

It was stong win, but not a mandate.

[J. J.]

this is by no means a mandate.
the country is too polarized right now.

Bluh.  Clinton claimed to have a mandate in 1992 and had only like 42% of the vote.

There may not have been a pro-Clinton mandate in 1992, but there certainly was an anti-Bush mandate since 63% of voters voted against Bush.

That was a rejection of GHW Bush.  It is hard to claim a Clinton mandate, because his party lost control of pretty much everything it had, and still hasn't gotten it back.

[J. J.]

this is by no means a mandate.
the country is too polarized right now.

Bluh.  Clinton claimed to have a mandate in 1992 and had only like 42% of the vote.

There may not have been a pro-Clinton mandate in 1992, but there certainly was an anti-Bush mandate since 63% of voters voted against Bush.

That was a rejection of GHW Bush.  It is hard to claim a Clinton mandate, because his party lost control of pretty much everything it had, and still hasn't gotten it back.

Democratic mandate, yes. Clinton, no.

In the 1992 election, the GOP gained 9 House seats, and were slightly higher than at any point during the GHW Bush years.  That is hardly a Democratic mandate. 

[J. J.]

I wouldn' even class that as a Clinton mandate.  A solid victory, yes, but factoring out Perot, not a mandate.

I wouldn't class 1988 as being a "mandate either."

[J. J.]

He has a mandate for a hawkish foreign policy. He has a mandate for moderately conservative social positions. He doesn't have a mandate on any economic issue at all.

GHW Bush didn't have a mandate overall, but a good solid victory in 1988.

GW Bush, likewise, had a solid win, but not a huge one.  No mandate.

[J. J.]

What are we defining as a mandate? He won, so he certainly has the mandate to be president for four more years and carry out every solitary item of his agenda.

I would not call this a broad base of support.  I'd say the same thing for exery election since 1980.

[J. J.]

You have to look at a number of things for a mandate.

1.  Did the candidate get a majority of the votes case?

2.  Did the candidate win by a wide margin?

3.  Did the candidate's party make gains in the legislature, especially in the House?

I would argue that 1980 met all criteria, and was the last election to do so.  Reagan had a majority and a large margin over Carter.  The GOP gained 38 House seats an 13 Senate seats.  Prior to that, 1964 and 1952 would qualify.

Does 1988?  No, the GOP had some substantial losses in the House and the Senate.  Neither does 1992, where the GOP numbers were higher than during the GHW Bush administration.

Now, let look at two prior elections, 1972 and 1976.  In 1972 the GOP lost two Senate seats.  There was a gain of 12 House seats, but there was a 12 seat loss in the previous election.  Nixon did have a majority and a sizable win, but it was a perrsonal victory, not one that suggested his policies should be carried through the legislature.

In 1976, the Democrats had a one seat loss in the Senate and a one seat gain in the House.  Carter barely had a majority.  Likewise, this was a bare victory for the Democrats.

2004 most resembles 1976, though Bush won a stronger victory, the gains in the House, and especially in the Senate, were better.  A good performance, but not a policy mandate.