We finally say what election 2004 is equal to..

[King]

1976...

The longtime frontrunner and Southern governor George W. Bush (Carter) is either tied or one point ahead on all final election day polls against Kerry (Ford). In the end, Bush wins 51% to 48% (50-48 in 76) and it all comes down to Ohio (Ohio aswell in '76).

[YRABNNRM]

I was thinking the exact same thing, I'd say it fits very well.

[Nym90]

Good parallel, although Ford would have needed one more state (Wisconsin, for example) in addition to Ohio. Kerry also needed these two states, but did get Wisconsin.

So in 1976, it didn't ALL come down to Ohio.

[Prospero]

1976...

The longtime frontrunner and Southern governor George W. Bush (Carter) is either tied or one point ahead on all final election day polls against Kerry (Ford). In the end, Bush wins 51% to 48% (50-48 in 76) and it all comes down to Ohio (Ohio aswell in '76).

Does that mean 2008 will be similar to 1980?  Where a candidate not favored by the party on his first attempt, Dean (Reagan) wins big?

[Sam Spade]

Doubtful.  If anyone is that character, it is Hillary and I think Hillary is honestly unelectable.

[King]

1976...

The longtime frontrunner and Southern governor George W. Bush (Carter) is either tied or one point ahead on all final election day polls against Kerry (Ford). In the end, Bush wins 51% to 48% (50-48 in 76) and it all comes down to Ohio (Ohio aswell in '76).

Does that mean 2008 will be similar to 1980?  Where a candidate not favored by the party on his first attempt, Dean (Reagan) wins big?

No, because 1980 had an incumbent that was almost unseated in the primaries. 2008 won't have an incumbent.

[King]

I just realized...had Bush won Wisconsin, the EV count would be identical to 76.