State Legislatures and Redistricting

[cinyc]

To answer the initial New York question, some of the absentees have been counted in the LI district.  Democrat Johnson netted 61 votes, and now trails by 427.  I don't know exactly what's left to count, though (military absentees can trickle in until the week of Thanksgiving, I believe) - absentees from two other Assembly districts within the Senate District appear to be part of it.  Two unrelated injunctions supposedly prevent counting absentee/affidavit ballots in the Westchester district, but they finally counted the two missing precincts.   Democrat Oppenheimer leads by 504 with 3,323 emergency, 3,814 absentees and 1,065 affidavit ballots to be counted.    With the Erie County emergency ballots counted, and Democrat Thompson still trails by 597.  The Democrat netted 1 vote in the Erie emergency vote count.    2,700+ absentees and 2,200+ affidavit ballots still remain to be counted.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is there any chance that there will be an impasse at New York and the courts draw the map?

Plus, I think that even if Strickland won in Ohio the Republicans would still control the process. I seem to remember that there is a 5-seat panel that handles redistricting and even with Strickland they would have a 4-1 majority.

[Badger]

That Louisiana party switcher is quite odd. You'd assume he was a Dixiecrat from some part of the state that hasn't voted Dem in forever, but he actually represents this district. He's probably losing next time.

The article says he's looking to run for Sec. of State. Chances are he's not even running next time.

I wonder if promise of Rep. Party support for that race was promised for the switch? We'll know if the GOP establishment rallies around this guy as nominee apparant.

[Bacon King]

That Louisiana party switcher is quite odd. You'd assume he was a Dixiecrat from some part of the state that hasn't voted Dem in forever, but he actually represents this district. He's probably losing next time.

More chat about the party switcher is here.  The 95th district does not look all that Dem to me, but I could be wrong. That party of New Orleans is kind of complicated, as the Garden District begins and ends somewhere in or near it.

WTF, MY REPRESENTATIVE SWITCHED PARTIES?

But it's a pretty Democratic area, yeah. The northern bits and some of the west of the district are majority black. Cedric Richmond won most precincts in the district; Cao basically only won the parts of the district in the 14th ward (in your map, the precincts numbered 14-XX). And even then, not every one of 'em. I haven't checked but I think Obama may have won every precinct in the district.

But Louisiana has a long tradition of party switching! Wouldn't be surprised if this guy does run for SoS.

[Frodo]

That Louisiana party switcher is quite odd. You'd assume he was a Dixiecrat from some part of the state that hasn't voted Dem in forever, but he actually represents this district. He's probably losing next time.

More chat about the party switcher is here.  The 95th district does not look all that Dem to me, but I could be wrong. That party of New Orleans is kind of complicated, as the Garden District begins and ends somewhere in or near it.

WTF, MY REPRESENTATIVE SWITCHED PARTIES?

But it's a pretty Democratic area, yeah. The northern bits and some of the west of the district are majority black. Cedric Richmond won most precincts in the district; Cao basically only won the parts of the district in the 14th ward (in your map, the precincts numbered 14-XX). And even then, not every one of 'em. I haven't checked but I think Obama may have won every precinct in the district.

But Louisiana has a long tradition of party switching! Wouldn't be surprised if this guy does run for SoS.

Since you live in the state, do you see the legislature there (as well as in Mississippi) being taken over by Republicans as they have already done in other Deep South states?

[cinyc]

Is there any chance that there will be an impasse at New York and the courts draw the map?

Plus, I think that even if Strickland won in Ohio the Republicans would still control the process. I seem to remember that there is a 5-seat panel that handles redistricting and even with Strickland they would have a 4-1 majority.

I doubt it.  More likely than not, Republicans will draw an incumbent-protect Senate map, Democrats an incumbent-protect Assembly map, and both an incumbent-protect House map with some sort of compromise on which district(s) to abolish.  That seems to be what always happens.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is there any chance that there will be an impasse at New York and the courts draw the map?

Plus, I think that even if Strickland won in Ohio the Republicans would still control the process. I seem to remember that there is a 5-seat panel that handles redistricting and even with Strickland they would have a 4-1 majority.

I doubt it.  More likely than not, Republicans will draw an incumbent-protect Senate map, Democrats an incumbent-protect Assembly map, and both an incumbent-protect House map with some sort of compromise on which district(s) to abolish.  That seems to be what always happens.

But what's the Democrats incentive to compromise? It's not like that without an incumbent protection map they are in danger of losing the House, or any more congressional seats for that matter.
On the contrary, a court drawn map may throw the senate back to them in two years and then they can proceed to a mid-decade redistricting like Texas and Georgia Republicans did.

[rbt48]

The NCLS website http://www.ncsl.org/tabid/21253/default.aspx now shows the Mississippi Senate at 25-D, 24-R with 3 vacancies.  I'm not sure if the vacancies are possible GOP gains, but at least one must be a Republican district as the lineup was reported as 27-D, 25-R not too many days ago.  So, perhaps a Republican take-over looms here.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississippi_House_of_Representatives


Because of a party switcher, the Democratic caucus in the MS HOR is now majority black.


Democratic bench of potential blue dogs for Senate and House is being wiped out in these states.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The NCLS website http://www.ncsl.org/tabid/21253/default.aspx now shows the Mississippi Senate at 25-D, 24-R with 3 vacancies.  I'm not sure if the vacancies are possible GOP gains, but at least one must be a Republican district as the lineup was reported as 27-D, 25-R not too many days ago.  So, perhaps a Republican take-over looms here.

Alan Nunnelee (R) was elected to the House in MS-01. So he is the Republican vacancy.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The redistricting panel in Ohio only does the state legislature. Congressional districts are drawn in the usual legislature + governor veto manner.

[cinyc]

Is there any chance that there will be an impasse at New York and the courts draw the map?

Plus, I think that even if Strickland won in Ohio the Republicans would still control the process. I seem to remember that there is a 5-seat panel that handles redistricting and even with Strickland they would have a 4-1 majority.

I doubt it.  More likely than not, Republicans will draw an incumbent-protect Senate map, Democrats an incumbent-protect Assembly map, and both an incumbent-protect House map with some sort of compromise on which district(s) to abolish.  That seems to be what always happens.

But what's the Democrats incentive to compromise? It's not like that without an incumbent protection map they are in danger of losing the House, or any more congressional seats for that matter.
On the contrary, a court drawn map may throw the senate back to them in two years and then they can proceed to a mid-decade redistricting like Texas and Georgia Republicans did.

Because that's what they've always done.  I don't remember New York maps ever going to a court.  And you don't know how a court is going to draw the lines, in particular, possibly putting some Assembly Democrats at risk.

Incumbent protection always seems to be the default position in New York.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If you don't understand why New York would go incumbent protection, you don't know much of anything about the real way politics -- and people -- work. It's your own career first, your party and ideology second. Always has been, always will be.

[Nichlemn]

I'm thinking: from a game theoretic perspective, the minority party in Congressional redistricting (in today's case the Democrats) should try to maximise the number of "tilt Democratic" districts they can, while Republicans should aim for many "likely GOP" seats. Why? Consider that a good Republican gerrymander should result in the Republicans winning the House despite losing the popular vote. Therefore, any situation where Democrats win the House involves them likely winning the popular vote by a modest margin. In such a scenario, they should win the vast majority of seats that would tilt Democratic in a neutral year. Yes, it would look like a "dummymander" in a poor year, but they would never win the House under such a scenario anyway.

[Brittain33]

Reports of the NY Republican demise are greatly exaggerated.  If they can win back the suburbs, they will retain control of the State Senate through the decade.  That rebuilding process began in 2009 and continued to grow in 2010. 

They needed a heavily gerrymandered map and a Republican wave year to get above parity and hold onto 32-30. The next map, even if drawn by Republicans to continue to crack Long Island's minority communities and upstate Democratic districts, will be hampered by the law change making it impossible to county downstate prisoners as residents of underpopulated northern Republican districts. The Democrats aren't holding any untenable districts that I know of, considering that Aubertine and the guy on Suffolk County lost, while the Republican in Buffalo is in a weak position and there are Republicans representing places like Rochester and central Nassau who would be in tough shape even if the suburbs started voting like it was 1988 again.

We'll see what happens next year when we have new maps (likely drawn by Republicans, although with difficulty) and a Presidential election year.

[cinyc]

Reports of the NY Republican demise are greatly exaggerated.  If they can win back the suburbs, they will retain control of the State Senate through the decade.  That rebuilding process began in 2009 and continued to grow in 2010. 

They needed a heavily gerrymandered map and a Republican wave year to get above parity and hold onto 32-30. The next map, even if drawn by Republicans to continue to crack Long Island's minority communities and upstate Democratic districts, will be hampered by the law change making it impossible to county downstate prisoners as residents of underpopulated northern Republican districts. The Democrats aren't holding any untenable districts that I know of, considering that Aubertine and the guy on Suffolk County lost, while the Republican in Buffalo is in a weak position and there are Republicans representing places like Rochester and central Nassau who would be in tough shape even if the suburbs started voting like it was 1988 again.

We'll see what happens next year when we have new maps (likely drawn by Republicans, although with difficulty) and a Presidential election year.

Assuming the Democrat incumbent keeps her narrow lead in SD-37, Democrats hold seats in the Bronx/NYC northern suburbs that can easily go over to the Republicans if redrawn correctly (cramming minority areas of Westchester into a Democratic stronghold district and making a seat or two for Republicans out of the residual).  If I'm not mistaken, two of those seats had two Republican incumbents last time the lines were drawn to try to keep both in power (including one that contained much of the Bronx before the incumbent Republican was indicted).  Westchester and Rockland have enough Republicans that they should be able to elect at least one more Republican to the NYS Senate, if not two.

[CARLHAYDEN]

http://www.ncsl.org/tabid/21253/default.aspx

[Kevinstat]

Can the New York State Senate (and the New York State Assembly) redistrict itself without requiring the approval of either the other chamber or the Governor?

I don't recall anyone answering this question.

[Brittain33]

Can the New York State Senate (and the New York State Assembly) redistrict itself without requiring the approval of either the other chamber or the Governor?

I don't recall anyone answering this question.

I'm pretty sure the answer is no.

[nclib]

I've made an updated map:

Red = full Democratic control
Blue = full Republican control
Green = split control
Gray = non-partisan commission (or N.A. for at-large states)

Nebraska is technically non-partisan, but will have a GOP map.
New York has a chance of having full Democratic control.
Minnesota has a chance of having full Republican control.
Rhode Island has an Independent Governor, but will likely have a Democratic map.
New Hampshire has a Democratic Governor but a veto proof GOP legislature.
Maine has legislative elections again before it redistricts.

Would you mind making a map of who had control for the current lines so we can do a bit of a comparison?

Okay. CT and ME are unclear do to ME redistricting a cycle later, and this was CT's description (from Fairvote):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[jimrtex]

More chat about the party switcher is here.  The 95th district does not look all that Dem to me, but I could be wrong. That party of New Orleans is kind of complicated, as the Garden District begins and ends somewhere in or near it.

In 2007, there were 9 candidates, with the lone Republican squeezing into 8th place (330 votes vs. 317, and 5% of the total).  Hines came from way back to win the runoff.

Does Louisiana redistrict before the 2011 election, or do they wait until 2015?  NOLA will probably lose a bunch of seats.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Louisiana is redistricting next year for the 2011 elections, same as Virginia. I believe New Jersey is doing the same, and I can't find anything on Mississippi, except that last time they didn't adopt new maps until spring of 2002.

[jimrtex]

Louisiana is redistricting next year for the 2011 elections, same as Virginia. I believe New Jersey is doing the same, and I can't find anything on Mississippi, except that last time they didn't adopt new maps until spring of 2002.

That's a pretty interesting schedule.  They will hold an extraordinary special redistricting session before the regular session.  Not only does Louisiana hold its elections in odd years, they hold them in October - though because the Open Primary takes the place of partisan primaries, that is actually later than most states,  When Louisiana switched back to the open primary for congressional elections earlier this year, the legislature considered making it effective for 2010, until they realized it would be impossible to get VRA pre-clearance.

Mississippi has regular partisan primaries in July, and some really ugly legislative districts

http://www.msjrc.state.ms.us/ms_house.html

So they might not be able to get it done in time.  It would be interesting if someone were to challenge the existing districts, and force new elections before 2015.  The census bureau can compile population for existing districts if the state submits boundaries in time.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Virginia's primary is normally in June, but they move it to August in redistricting years.

[Kevinstat]

Louisiana is redistricting next year for the 2011 elections, same as Virginia. I believe New Jersey is doing the same, and I can't find anything on Mississippi, except that last time they didn't adopt new maps until spring of 2002.

That's a pretty interesting schedule.  They will hold an extraordinary special redistricting session before the regular session.  Not only does Louisiana hold its elections in odd years, they hold them in October - though because the Open Primary takes the place of partisan primaries, that is actually later than most states,  When Louisiana switched back to the open primary for congressional elections earlier this year, the legislature considered making it effective for 2010, until they realized it would be impossible to get VRA pre-clearance.

Mississippi has regular partisan primaries in July, and some really ugly legislative districts

http://www.msjrc.state.ms.us/ms_house.html

So they might not be able to get it done in time.  It would be interesting if someone were to challenge the existing districts, and force new elections before 2015.  The census bureau can compile population for existing districts if the state submits boundaries in time.

The Mississippi Constitution, last I checkd, actually says that redistricting takes place in 1982 and every 10th year thereafter, but it seems like that was igored in 1991, which was a Legislative election year in Mississippi like 2011 will be.  Legislative redistricting was delayed but because of Justice department non-preclearance (which may have been prompted by a lawsuit from Black legislators and civil rights activists under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act).  And there ended up being Legislative elections in 1992 for a three-year term.  See Mississippi Redistricting Cases:  the 1990s (Watkins v. Maubus and the first Watkins v. Fordice).