2016: A Comeback for the Ages

[PPT Spiral]

Good evening, this is Wolf Blitzer. We here at CNN have been following the Iowa caucuses all night. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has easily won on the Democratic side, getting more than 60% of the vote. Clinton's competitor, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, has gotten a larger chunk of the vote than expected, though, which might give his campaign more momentum in the coming weeks.

Iowa Democratic Caucus


Hillary Clinton - 64.8%
Bernie Sanders - 35.2%

And we're ready to make a projection on the Republican side that few people saw coming. In what has been a very volatile last few weeks for the primary, the polls have become unpredictable and it's become anyone's game. With 95% of the precincts in, we can declare that the winner of the Republican Iowa caucus is Rick Perry, the former Governor of Texas.

Iowa Republican Caucus


Rick Perry - 19.6%
Scott Walker - 19.3%
Rand Paul - 17.7%
Chris Christie - 13.5%
Bobby Jindal - 11.3%
Rick Santorum - 11.1%
Jeb Bush - 6.6%
Peter King - 0.9%

Next up: How did we get here?

[DKrol]

You have my attention....

[henster]

Already liking it

[Brewer]

Gah...Rick...Perry...

[NHI]

Looks promising!

[RedPrometheus]

Looks promising!

[PPT Spiral]

The Invisible Primary

Rick Perry, who decided not to seek reelection to the Texas governorship in 2014, was set on making a comeback in the 2016 election to redeem his image to voters nationwide. Perry largely spent 2014 vigorously campaigning for Republican candidates across the country, which had earned him some new goodwill among Republican officials for his dedication. Not repeating the mistake of entering late, he announced his presidential campaign in February 2015. From there, the majority of Perry's time campaigning was in Iowa and South Carolina, as well as an assortment of southern and western states early on in the primary schedule.

While the debates were undoubtedly what killed Perry's chances last time around, he would not be delegated to the same fate once more. Perry's debate performances were notably better, having spent countless hours on preparation and now projecting a more concise and confident tone. Slowly but surely, his polling numbers were creeping up. It was another Texan in the race that would give Perry his big break: Ted Cruz.

Cruz had been the darling of conservatives out of all the candidates for quite some time. At one point he was leading decisively nationally, soaking up much of the solidly conservative vote. His frontrunner status in Iowa was never seriously threatened either, being a hit among evangelicals. With an Iowa victory seemingly on the way, Cruz felt ecstatic about his chances. However, all of that changed in late November, when reporters from The Daily Beast revealed an extensive operation waged by the Cruz campaign to bribe multiple Iowa Republican officials for endorsements. What made this story even more severe was that Cruz himself was found to have personally signed off on initiating some of the bribes. The rest of the Republicans, as well as the media, pounded Cruz for this, and his support was cut in half in two weeks. On December 11, Cruz announced that he was dropping out.

Cruz made no endorsement during his withdrawal speech, and many of his former supporters were now left contemplating who to put their allegiance to now. Rand Paul experienced a noticeable rebound, appealing to many of the same constituents. Rick Santorum got another chance with many evangelicals, reducing his image of a has-been. It was Perry who got the most serious look, though, as many in Iowa respected the ties that he had been trying to forge over the months, focusing on many small towns across the state. Suddenly, Perry began to seem like somewhat of a threat to the candidates who have been polling the highest in Iowa. It was underestimated by them how much new support he was really picking up, however.

For the Democrats, many were indeed ready for Hillary, and Hillary Clinton formally announced her campaign in March 2015. Nevertheless, there were rumblings among the base about her progressive credentials. From this, the disgruntled Democrats found a hero in independent Bernie Sanders, who openly calls himself a socialist, who announced his intention to seek the Democratic nomination with Clinton running, saying that "the American people deserve better than yet another Wall Street candidate." Sanders received the endorsements of prominent Democrats such as Elizabeth Warren, Brian Schweitzer, and Howard Dean, indicating that not everyone was settled on Clinton being the nominee. Sanders geared up his campaign to run for the long term, investing resources in New Hampshire and in many Super Tuesday states from the beginning.

Clinton, not seeing Sanders as a threat overall, had not confronted him for much of the year leading up to the first primaries, and instead operated as a general election candidate. There were only three televised debates between Clinton and Sanders before the primaries rolled around, although Sanders's performance in all of them generated a lot of enthusiasm among Democrats who want to steer the party considerably more to the left. Wanting to defy initial expectations, Sanders during December decided to build up support in Iowa, barnstorming across the state with surrogates and airing TV and radio ads.

[NHI]

Great update!!!

[PPT Spiral]

Iowa Caucus Night

We did it, Iowa! The media hasn't taken us seriously, but we've showed them all that we're a force to be reckoned with! I want to thank each and every one of my supporters out there, and I urge you to stay strong. We'll be facing tough battles, but we can persevere and we can make it out as the victors in the end. God bless you, and God bless the United States of America!

Well, I gave it my all during this entire campaign. I thank all of my supporters who got us a decent share of the vote in Iowa. It's clear that the people are seeking a different choice this election, though, and so I am dropping out of the race and endorsing Governor Perry. He represents the same kinds of conservative principles that I've been speaking for and he's worthy of your vote.

I want to first congratulate Governor Perry on his victory, as it was certainly a tough battle he waged. The fact that we were so close to victory still shows us that the momentum's on our side, and so I'll be continuing this long and hard struggle for the nomination. Onto New Hampshire and beyond!

Iowa has chosen who they prefer in this election. Tonight has made us one step closer to the nomination and to the presidency, and it's all thanks to you, the American people. We've got work to do to make this country better, but I'm confident that we'll be able to achieve it together. Thank you all, and let's continue onwards together!

The polls had us here in the 20s, but when you get 35% given that, I think that's something to be proud of. The establishment hasn't been giving you all a fair chance to really express who you want to see as President, and I'm running to change that. I'm greatly encouraged by the results tonight, and I have this one message for Secretary Clinton: I'll see you in New Hampshire!

[BaconBacon96]

Come on Sanders.

[PPT Spiral]

New Hampshire Primaries

With Iowa to claim, Rick Perry had a path to go forward and an opportunity to truly redeem himself after a disaster of a last run. Chris Christie honed in on New Hampshire to ensure that he remains a frontrunner for the rest of the race. Rand Paul, Jeb Bush, and Scott Walker also competed strongly, and Peter King's entire strategy was built on success in the Granite State. Perry himself would not devote much time to visiting the state, but decided to invest resources for advertising with new momentum.

For Bernie Sanders, New Hampshire was the prime opportunity to topple down Hillary Clinton and her perceived inevitability. This has been the state out of all 50 that the most attention was focused to, and with his residency at close proximity, that gave Sanders one advantage. After an unexpected Iowa showing, Sanders shot up in the state to a virtual tie with Clinton.

New Hampshire Republican Primary

Rand Paul - 23.2%
Chris Christie - 22.7%
Jeb Bush - 20.0%
Scott Walker - 15.0%
Rick Perry - 8.2%
Peter King - 7.8%
Bobby Jindal - 3.1%

"Tonight we've done it, ladies and gentlemen. With your help, we made a strong message to Washington that the people want to see someone who respects the Constitution, spends within their means, and doesn't want to pin Americans against each other. New Hampshire is just one step to the road to victory, and I'll be seeing you all at the end!"

Paul inching out Christie surprised a fair amount of analysts, the majority whom predicted Christie to win by a couple of percentage points. Perry had a solid showing for not frequently campaigning in the state, and was delighted with what he could muster. For King, New Hampshire was the end, and he subsequently endorsed Christie in his withdrawal speech. Bobby Jindal, embarrassed by his results in the first two primaries, also threw in the towel and went on to endorse Perry, who he endorsed in 2012.

The other primary was what captivated people's attention more that night, however.

New Hampshire Democratic Primary
Bernie Sanders - 53.1%
Hillary Clinton - 46.9%

"The media said it couldn't be done. Hillary Clinton: she's the nominee already, why even bother trying, the rest of you? I took the plunge because if the Democrats will fail to live up to Social Security, Medicare, financial regulation, and tax fairness with Clinton, then, by God, Americans deserve a voice to represent their interests. New Hampshire has spoken, and they've let it be known wide and clear that they want a real progressive this election! I'm in this fight to the very end!"

In the ultimate upset, Sanders managed to get more votes than the candidate whom many believed would win every contest in a landslide. The news of his win will prove to be of tremendous benefit to his campaign, as donations began pouring in with greater intensity than ever before and he suddenly began to look competitive in some other states across the map. Over at the Clinton camp, strategists are pondering how Hillary can best tackle the fiery socialist from Vermont in the game of winning over the left.

[PPT Spiral]

All right, so I've decided to still toy around with this. Please let me know if there is any interest with this timeline.

New Hampshire and Beyond

Chris Christie, after a loss in the highly contested New Hampshire and with a shrinking pool of donors, dropped out of the race in what was a somewhat surprising move by some observers. The bombastic Christie was able to overcome the George Washington Bridge scandal for the most part and was a force in the race, but he came up short. Some had expected Jeb Bush, who had performed worse than Christie in the first two contests, to drop out first, although the Bush campaign had the better national infrastructure and a sturdy base of donors who believed that he would be the best shot for victory in November. Many Christie supporters initially migrated to Bush in what would be the consolidation of the establishment vote.

Rick Perry was feeling confident about the next state on the schedule, South Carolina. Riding a wave of momentum from his Iowa victory and a better-than-expected showing in New Hampshire, his campaign invested heavily in advertisements and the candidate himself sought to court the highly influential evangelical vote found in the state. Jeb Bush, having a slight advantage in the polls, saw Perry as his main threat and aggressively tried to halt his traction. Perry on his part still had lingering questions over his judgment and aptitude to serve following his 2012 campaign, although he had been able to deflect much of the skepticism and paint himself as a new figure in 2016. Rand Paul tried to capitalize on his New Hampshire win by devoting more resources in South Carolina, hoping to come in from behind, and Scott Walker was seeking the ultimate upset with few options seemingly left for his campaign after losing Iowa.

In a debate right before South Carolina, the Republican candidates squared it off. Bush and Perry mainly went after each other, although both held strong and their attacks neutralized each other, leading to no clear victor. Paul earned criticism for being snappy towards the moderators in multiple instances, leading some to wonder whether the stresses of campaigning has gotten to him. Walker ended up exceeding viewers' expectations, staying above the fray from attacking the other candidates and instead discussing implementing his robust conservative agenda in a state like Wisconsin, despite the threats from unions and other groups. Walker had the most impressive performance out of the four, although it remained to be seen how the primary would turn out.

Bernie Sanders, who pulled off a win in New Hampshire when very few expected it, now truly had reason to forge on as a competitor to Hillary Clinton, who believed she would be easily anointed from the beginning. Sanders winning "threw her off, and it also threw the rest of us off," Clinton campaign strategist Mark Penn said in a TIME interview. Originally dismissed as a pure gadfly, the Sanders campaign represented true anguish over Clinton from the liberal base that has only grown more vocal and uncompromising in recent years. An uptick in fundraising was noticed for Sanders, who pulled whatever he could to bring attention to his campaign and to his criticisms of his opponent. "Look, I think Hillary is a respectable figure, and I've known her for many years," Sanders said in an interview on Hardball with Chris Matthews, "but we don't need more Clinton-style politics in Washington that caters to big-money groups instead of the working class."

The increased attention on Sanders gave Clinton stress, although most believed that she would breeze through the rest of the primaries with relative ease after the hype settled down. For the time being, however, Clinton had to deal with Sanders in a way that deviated away from her general election strategy. The next debate that took place between the two offered a lot of fireworks. Both candidates seemed particularly nasty towards each other as they sought to demolish each other and come out as the stronger candidate in the end. Sanders was attacked as "fringe" and "unelectable" while Clinton was called "sleazy" and "Republican-lite." Ultimately, however, Clinton ended up getting more heat from seeming desperate in her attempts to dismiss her rival's candidacy, and Sanders picked up more momentum after Democrats resonated with his words on defending the middle class and beating back corporate influence in politics.

South Carolina Republican Primary
Rick Perry - 28.4%
Jeb Bush - 25.6%
Scott Walker - 25.2%
Rand Paul - 20.8%

When the dust settled, Perry came out the winner in South Carolina, thanks to a strong GOTV operation and blanketing the airwaves in the final days. Bush was able to stunt how large Perry's lead could have been, although this was not enough to grant a victory for himself. Walker ended up surging in the state, nearly taking second place even when most polls had him at fourth place before voting. Paul underperformed, a result of a rough week after New Hampshire with extra scrutiny towards his campaign as a potential GOP nominee. With Iowa and South Carolina in his column, Perry now had history on his side with the path to becoming the eventual nominee, although many party insiders were fretful over what a Perry candidacy would mean in the general election. The race had only just begun.

South Carolina Democratic Primary
Hillary Clinton - 56.3%
Bernie Sanders - 43.6%

Clinton won South Carolina, as expected. What was not expected was how strong Sanders would be in the state, reaching over 40%. Analysts credited the results as being due to Sanders's strength with African-American voters, who were very responsive to his campaign's message and who still remembered the Clintons' treatment of then-Senator Obama during the 2008 campaign. South Carolina was a testament to Sanders and his lasting strength in the primaries, which increasingly worried the Clinton camp. They did not see Sanders as a genuine threat to capturing the nomination, but they were worried that he would bruise their candidate going into the general election too much and lead them to competing at a disadvantage with a restless base. Time would soon tell what else was in store.

[NHI]

Great update!

[PPT Spiral]

Continuing the Primaries

In Jeb Bush, the Republican establishment saw hope. Terrified that Rick Perry could implode in the general election, concerned over Rand Paul and his unorthodox views, and observant that Scott Walker cannot win the primaries by this point, the former Florida governor offered positives despite having a politically toxic last name in many circles. Bush's tenure was marked with popularity and his connections with the Hispanic community could give Republicans a better chance at voter outreach in the fall. Party bosses saw the primaries as coming down to a Bush-Perry brawl, with Paul being an unpredictable factor.

Florida Republican Primary
Jeb Bush - 63.5%
Rick Perry - 20.1%
Rand Paul - 11.0%
Scott Walker - 5.4%

Nevada Republican Caucus
Rand Paul - 38.6%
Jeb Bush - 30.6%
Rick Perry - 20.5%
Scott Walker - 10.3%

Bush trounced his competitors in his home state, as expected. He also performed well in Nevada, although he was second place to Paul, who picked up where his father left off in organizational strength and rammed his supporters through in the caucus to capture a decisive win. Walker ended up withdrawing from the race following Nevada, seeing no viable path for the nomination, although he is sure to be on the VP shortlist for the remaining three. Perry did not compete in Nevada, instead looking to the February 7 contests and beyond to Super Tuesday, where he can potentially solidify his status as the frontrunner in the race.

Florida Democratic Primary
Bernie Sanders - 50.3%
Hillary Clinton - 49.7%

Nevada Democratic Caucus
Hillary Clinton - 55.9%
Bernie Sanders - 44.1%

A shocker occurred over on the Democratic side, where Bernie Sanders ended up beating Hillary Clinton in Florida in a squeaker of a win. This was attributed to an aggressive campaign strategy by Sanders to emphasize protecting and expanding Social Security and Medicare, programs important to Florida with a substantial senior population, and criticizing Clinton's record as being too soft on these issues. The strategy clearly paid off, and it only sent the media crazy over what could happen next. Suddenly, it hit the Democratic Party that the primary could last much, much longer than they would like. This was no doubt a hot topic over at Clinton HQ, and the campaign was now looking at Super Tuesday as the prime opportunity to kill off Sanders and to unite the Democrats for November. Sanders, meanwhile, was soaking up high favorability ratings from primary voters and capitalizing on his successes to be a formidable threat.

[Maxwell]

This is excellent! Great work!

[Cranberry]

Go on Bernie!
Great work, please continue!

[TX Conservative Dem]

The Rick Perry comeback