"Comfortably" is a stretch... especially when both candidates are in the 30s.
Up by 8% with only 11% undecided isn't comfortable?
The Independent support is sure to drop.
In Maine, where an independent got 21% of the vote last time? Where an independent was elected governor in 1994 and 1998? I wouldn't be so sure about that.
But what was the level of support for the Independent months prior to the vote the last time? I'm asking because I honestly don't remember, not to prove a point. I just know that support for Independent candidates generally seems to fall as a general election approaches in this country.
Hard to say, as Merrill wasn't even polled until the last couple weeks of the campaign.
Merrill performed the role in 2006 of sucking up discontented moderate Republicans. If you look at the polling, Woodcock was close over the summer before he imploded in the fall with Merrill as the main benifery. This, despite Merrill being a Democratic state rep.
Cutler has far more money than Merrrill had, but LePage has a better bio and a better year to run in than Woodcock. And Mitchell lacks any base. Then again, Woodcock, despite being batsh**t insane, was one of the nicest people you will ever meet. LePage is one of the nastiest. Frankly, given the press he has been getting I would have expected him to have fallen further, but Woodcock was at 42% in August 22nd Rassmussen poll in 2006. He finished just over 29%.
Finally, while I buy the top-line here, as with Colorado, I think Rass' likely voter field has produced favorable ratings for candidates that have nothing to do with reality. There is no way either Mitchell or LePage have positive ratings right now, much less ones approaching fifty-percent. The narrative in the local media and on the ground is Sharon Angle-Reidish.
