Australian Federal Election - Results Thread
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #300 on: August 30, 2010, 08:49:47 PM »

Btw, the Coalition is surging in the betting markets now on the question of who will form a government.  The momentum is definitely with them, as there have been a few hints dropped to suggest that the conservative Independents might end up going with them after all, after having flirted with Labor.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #301 on: August 30, 2010, 09:05:30 PM »

As a Sydney-sider that's easy - the North Shore of Sydney is blue-ribbon Liberal heartland, considerably richer, higher education levels, old-money.

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Novelty
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« Reply #302 on: August 30, 2010, 09:46:12 PM »

As a Sydney-sider that's easy - the North Shore of Sydney is blue-ribbon Liberal heartland, considerably richer, higher education levels, old-money.
And why should that be?  What's favourable about the North Shore of Sydney that draws the "old money" there?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #303 on: August 30, 2010, 10:05:17 PM »

Because it's always been there... it's the area of the large gated estates.

It's either very lush and green... basically, the Greenwich, CT of Sydney - or goes down to the Harbour... basically, the richer you are, the more likely you are to vote for the Liberal Party.
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Smid
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« Reply #304 on: August 30, 2010, 11:15:37 PM »
« Edited: August 31, 2010, 01:21:17 AM by Smid »

Off the AAP Newswire:

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And this morning, in The Age

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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #305 on: August 30, 2010, 11:37:51 PM »

Because it's always been there... it's the area of the large gated estates.

It's either very lush and green... basically, the Greenwich, CT of Sydney - or goes down to the Harbour... basically, the richer you are, the more likely you are to vote for the Liberal Party.

Must be nice having a river keep out the rif raf. BTW, the first time ever that I looked at an Australian electoral map, the Sydney split was the first thing I noticed too. But that was many years ago.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #306 on: August 30, 2010, 11:46:15 PM »

But... there are many areas along the fringes of the Green-belt... seats like Berowra (will be V curious once Ruddock leaves) and Bennelong, which aren't blue-ribbon demographically, they have loyal Lib pockets, and ALP pockets and swing blocs.

Berowra has the Hornsby - Northern Commuter line which is having an influx of young families and generally... young people (this will be interesting and the seat continues to spread North and West. . Bennelong has the Asian vote in Epping and Eastwood. This is probably the most important bloc to get on-side. The Asian vote embraced McKew in 07, then fled from her in 2010.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #307 on: August 31, 2010, 01:20:34 AM »

The AEC has received legal advice regarding a small number of pre-poll votes cast in the Queensland seat of Flynn. These votes won't be counted, but won't affect the result.
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« Reply #308 on: August 31, 2010, 05:05:56 PM »

National 2PP is dead on 50.00 at the moment. Libs ahead by about 900 votes.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #309 on: August 31, 2010, 08:09:48 PM »

The Greens have signed up for an alliance with Labor:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/greens-sign-up-with-labor-20100901-14jo8.html

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Of course, this does little towards giving them a majority in the House.  But Labor+Greens would constitute a majority in the Senate.

Meanwhile, the three key Independents may not decide which way to go until next week Tuesday:

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Antarctic
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« Reply #310 on: August 31, 2010, 09:38:46 PM »

National 2PP is dead on 50.00 at the moment. Libs ahead by about 900 votes.

Just had a look at the latest update.

TWO PARTY PREFERRED

Labor      5,487,334
Coalition 5,487,478

That's unbelievably close.
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #311 on: August 31, 2010, 10:45:26 PM »

National 2PP is dead on 50.00 at the moment. Libs ahead by about 900 votes.

Just had a look at the latest update.

TWO PARTY PREFERRED

Labor      5,487,334
Coalition 5,487,478

That's unbelievably close.

Very close, and that's what I've been talking up, but the fact remains that there are eight electorates where the 2PP (Coalition v Labor) has not yet been determined - four on the left and four on the right. Obviously the election will still be close once they've finished that, but it probably won't be as close as it is now. I think my money would be on the margin of Denison+Melbourne+Batman+Grayndler > Kennedy+New England+Lyne+O'Connor, though, so I think that will tilt it back in Labor's favour... still... let's wait and see what happens.

Hugh, I'm struggling with trying to work out Julian McGauran's likelihood of being returned in Victoria (as I discussed with you the other day). Antony Green's quoted in an article as saying pretty much the conclusion we both reached, but I've been grappling with the maths involved in adding small numbers into the equation for PR-STV (if anyone wants to help me out...). Obviously additional votes increase the quota to be elected, which therefore reduces the transfer value, but at the same time, they increase the surplus, increasing the transfer value. I'm trying to figure out if the increase to transfer value is greater or lesser than (or evern the same as) the decrease to transfer value. In short... does an additional vote going onto the Liberal pile have the value of a vote, or just some fraction of the vote. The change in transfer value will affect all the votes spilling down to lower-order candidates, but I'm not sure what affect it has overall...

Also just saw that there could be a by-election in Boothby after an AEC stuff up resulted in about 3,000 votes being excluded from this razor-thin marginal seat.
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Јas
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« Reply #312 on: September 01, 2010, 07:46:39 AM »

I've been grappling with the maths involved in adding small numbers into the equation for PR-STV (if anyone wants to help me out...). Obviously additional votes increase the quota to be elected, which therefore reduces the transfer value, but at the same time, they increase the surplus, increasing the transfer value. I'm trying to figure out if the increase to transfer value is greater or lesser than (or evern the same as) the decrease to transfer value. In short... does an additional vote going onto the Liberal pile have the value of a vote, or just some fraction of the vote. The change in transfer value will affect all the votes spilling down to lower-order candidates, but I'm not sure what affect it has overall...

Can you put up/link to the relevant numbers at present?

I think the answer to your question, if I understand it correctly, depends on the relative proportion of Liberal votes that have yet to be added (compared to the existing proportion of Liberal votes as a fraction of all votes cast).
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #313 on: September 01, 2010, 07:38:57 PM »

I've been grappling with the maths involved in adding small numbers into the equation for PR-STV (if anyone wants to help me out...). Obviously additional votes increase the quota to be elected, which therefore reduces the transfer value, but at the same time, they increase the surplus, increasing the transfer value. I'm trying to figure out if the increase to transfer value is greater or lesser than (or evern the same as) the decrease to transfer value. In short... does an additional vote going onto the Liberal pile have the value of a vote, or just some fraction of the vote. The change in transfer value will affect all the votes spilling down to lower-order candidates, but I'm not sure what affect it has overall...

Can you put up/link to the relevant numbers at present?

I think the answer to your question, if I understand it correctly, depends on the relative proportion of Liberal votes that have yet to be added (compared to the existing proportion of Liberal votes as a fraction of all votes cast).

I was guessing something like that, but although I can handle some algebra and other maths formula, it's never been my strong suit.

The best two websites that I've been using the most are:

Antony Green's Senate Projections based on current figures

and:

The Electoral Commission's current count for Victoria
(note, you can click links at the top to take you to any state or the national totals, or by clicking "Senate" on the top left side, you can click on "Victoria" in the "Division and Polling Place" section and see how many postal votes, etc have been counted for the Senate in each Division for each party).

Antony Green's one is useful because it says the number of votes at each step of the count, and the point I'm particularly interested is the second-last step, where the Liberal Senator, Julian McGauran is excluded and the preferences mainly flow to the DLP, leading to the next step where the DLP is elected. He trails the DLP by, well, about 16,000 votes or so (changes, obviously, with every update... it's been everywhere between 14,400 on election night and 21,000 by Monday, but has been coming in from there every day this week), and there are still lots of votes to count for the Senate, so if he brings it in far enough, he'll overtake the DLP at that stage, and their preferences and Family First preferences (and the scattered remnants of various other micro-parties) should get him elected if he can pull in front. This should even be the case if Fielding displaces the DLP earlier in the count, as was mentioned in the article - it shouldn't make much of a difference because they cross preferenced and the other parties are likely to have a similar preference flow regardless of which of those two parties leads towards the end of the count. Either way, the Liberals are through to the final, but the DLP and Family First are in a knock-out semi-final beforehand with the winner taking on the Libs... and I'm then more interested in the Liberals' chance of winning that final against whoever makes it through.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #314 on: September 03, 2010, 12:07:19 PM »

After seven formal declarations
Liberals 248,490 votes (44.06%)
Labour 152,998 votes (27.13%)
Greens 62,826 votes (11.14%)
Independents 55,174 votes (9.78%)
Nationals 22,479 votes (3.99%)
Others 21,236 votes (3.77%)
One Nation 773 votes (0.14%)

Seats Won
Coalition 5 seats (unchanged)
Labour 1 seat (unchanged)
Independents 1 seat (unchanged)
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DL
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« Reply #315 on: September 03, 2010, 12:27:04 PM »

What difference would it make to the ALP whether the final Senate seat in Victoria goes DLP or Family First? It sounds like FF senator who has been there up to now has been 100% obstructionist on everything. Would him being replaced by someone from the DLP be just as bad or would the DLP vote with the ALP on domestic economic issues etc...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #316 on: September 03, 2010, 12:38:16 PM »

It would be an improvement from the ALP's point of view; a DLP Senator would probably vote with them about a third of the time or something like that.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #317 on: September 03, 2010, 10:04:09 PM »

While the majority of voters in the electorates of the three key Independents favor the Coalition over Labor, we now have a few national polls that show voters nationwide hoping the Independents side with Labor:

link

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/09/04/newspoll-alp-favoured-for-government-47-39/
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #318 on: September 04, 2010, 01:47:23 AM »

It would be an improvement from the ALP's point of view; a DLP Senator would probably vote with them about a third of the time or something like that.

There's a DLP member of the Upper House in the Victorian State Parliament. You can see how he votes. He votes with the Conservatives on many social issues, but votes with Labor on some of the economic issues that come before the Parliament.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #319 on: September 06, 2010, 09:23:10 AM »

It should be finally decided tomorrow morning our time. I have this sick feeling they'll go over to the Coalition at the last minute... we shall see.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #320 on: September 06, 2010, 07:48:42 PM »

The three country Independents say that they'll announce their decision today:

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/

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(It's presently 10:46am here, so 2pm is in about 3 hours.)

The betting markets are giving ~70% chance that Labor forms the next government, and ~30% chance that it's the Coalition.
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Teddy (IDS Legislator)
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« Reply #321 on: September 06, 2010, 09:42:09 PM »

It'll be Labor, of that I'm nearly 100% certain.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #322 on: September 06, 2010, 10:07:42 PM »

OK, they're now saying the press conference will be at 3pm:

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/
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Smid
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #323 on: September 06, 2010, 10:08:04 PM »
« Edited: September 06, 2010, 10:22:42 PM by Smid »

Oh, Mr Morden beat me to it. Anyhow...

The AAP Newswire reports:

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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #324 on: September 06, 2010, 10:15:42 PM »

This is REALLY REALLY starting to give me a headache.

The longer this takes... the more unnerved it makes me.
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