Australian Federal Election - Results Thread

[You kip if you want to...]

Greens 12% nationally. 1 seat. Democracy at work, right there.

[You kip if you want to...]

Wilkie leading 58-42 in Denison.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, rural Tasmania safe Labor, the central Hobart seat not Labor. What decade is this? The 1960s?

[You kip if you want to...]

An unelected leader and a hung parliament. Like we've never seen that before.

[Phony Moderate]

An unelected leader and a hung parliament. Like we've never seen that before.

All leaders are unelected.

[You kip if you want to...]

An unelected leader A prime minister without a general election and a hung parliament. Like we've never seen that before.

All leaders are unelected.

Fixed.

[You kip if you want to...]

LibNats currently leading on 2PP nationally. That's something I didn't expect.

[Silent Hunter]

Anthony Green predicts Labor 73, Coalition 72, Green 1, Independents 4.

So, it's up to the Independents...

[Insula Dei]

Right now ABC hast Labor and the LNP tied at 68 with 8 seats undecided.

[Hash]

wtf Denison

[Platypus]

yeah, but realistically of tose 8 undecided, it's going to end up as Silent Hunter suggested. 75 Left, 72 coalition and 3 right-leaning independents. PM Gillard.

[You kip if you want to...]

yeah, but realistically of tose 8 undecided, it's going to end up as Silent Hunter suggested. 75 Left, 72 coalition and 3 right-leaning independents. PM Gillard.

That's 75 left, 75 right... interesting. What happens in a confidence vote if it's 75-75?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That reprehensible Nazi Wilson Tuckey might lose to a National in O'Connor. Might.

[Silent Hunter]

yeah, but realistically of tose 8 undecided, it's going to end up as Silent Hunter suggested. 75 Left, 72 coalition and 3 right-leaning independents. PM Gillard.

That's 75 left, 75 right... interesting. What happens in a confidence vote if it's 75-75?

Not sure in Australia, but in the British system that it's based on; the government would survive; the Speaker must vote in favour of the status quo.

[You kip if you want to...]

ABC has the Libs ahead. If they sweep the 7 which are in doubt, the Libs have a majority.

[Platypus]

75/75 includes the speaker, so it's actually 74/75/1, but the speaker always supports the government because it's always an intensely loyal member of the governing party (to ensure a biased chair, one of the worst modifications to Westminster we've made).

The relevant point here is that the 75 on the left is significantly firmer than the 75 on the right, because Bandt and Wilkie could never support Abbott in a million years. FWIW, I think Antony Green is wrong on the 74/76 call.

[Hash]

Liberal Senator guy says Coalition will get 73, ALP 72, and 5 Ind/Greens. Ugh. Disgusting.

[Mr. Morden]

Neither party will have a majority in the Senate, and the Greens will hold the balance of power there, as expected.

[Silent Hunter]

Liberal Senator guy says Coalition will get 73, ALP 72, and 5 Ind/Greens. Ugh. Disgusting.

As does Green...

[You kip if you want to...]

Liberal Senator guy says Coalition will get 73, ALP 72, and 5 Ind/Greens. Ugh. Disgusting.

I guess the positive thing is that Brandt is definately with the ALP, and Wilkie probably is with the ALP. Who are the 3 INDs likely to go to? All 3 to the Libs?

[Hash]

Liberal Senator guy says Coalition will get 73, ALP 72, and 5 Ind/Greens. Ugh. Disgusting.

I guess the positive thing is that Brandt is definately with the ALP, and Wilkie probably is with the ALP. Who are the 3 INDs likely to go to? All 3 to the Libs?

ALP could buy them on local issues such as hospitals or stuff like that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Remember the postal votes everyone...

Liberal Senator guy says Coalition will get 73, ALP 72, and 5 Ind/Greens. Ugh. Disgusting.

I guess the positive thing is that Brandt is definately with the ALP, and Wilkie probably is with the ALP. Who are the 3 INDs likely to go to? All 3 to the Libs?

They are all ex-Nats, but they all have 'issues' with their former party. It's going to be complicated.

[You kip if you want to...]

Taking Green's prediction of 73-72-4-1 and assuming Wilkie and Brant go to Labor and the 3 other INDs go Lib, it's 76-74. Lib majority, although it could probably be pulled down on no confidence.

What's the position of the 3 right INDs?

[Hash]

Family Firsters getting 1 Senate seat in SA?

[Mr. Morden]

Labor was leading in the early returns in Corangamite, but the margin is now less than 300 votes:

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/guide/cora.htm

Closest seat at the moment.