Australian Federal Election - Results Thread

[Franzl]

I don't mean to sound dumb, but can someone please explain the "Two-candidate preferred result" thing to me?

Australian elections work just like in Atlasia.....IRV until two candidates remain, usually Labor and Liberal....those are the results after other preferences are distributed.

[Barnes]

I don't mean to sound dumb, but can someone please explain the "Two-candidate preferred result" thing to me?

Australian elections work just like in Atlasia.....IRV until two candidates remain, usually Labor and Liberal....those are the results after other preferences are distributed.

Ah, thanks.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Now it looks like Tony Crook and WA Nationals are saying that they won't support the Coalition unless they get more $ for rural WA??:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/profile-tony-crook-20100822-13azk.html

That's related to a question I was going to ask --

What - other than a political disaster - would prevent some sort of Labor-National coalition (other than the LNP merger in Queensland)?

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Nationals in WA are not for a coalition. Neither are the Nationals in SA but that party is virtually dead.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Now it looks like Tony Crook and WA Nationals are saying that they won't support the Coalition unless they get more $ for rural WA??:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/profile-tony-crook-20100822-13azk.html

That's related to a question I was going to ask --

What - other than a political disaster - would prevent some sort of Labor-National coalition (other than the LNP merger in Queensland)?

It just couldn't happen...

[Smid]

Now it looks like Tony Crook and WA Nationals are saying that they won't support the Coalition unless they get more $ for rural WA??:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/profile-tony-crook-20100822-13azk.html

That's related to a question I was going to ask --

What - other than a political disaster - would prevent some sort of Labor-National coalition (other than the LNP merger in Queensland)?

What - other than a political disaster - would cause African Americans to vote Republican in the mid-terms this year?

(okay, probably a little more chance of the Nationals going off and having a Coalition with Labor, but you get the point... the Coalition has been around for about 80 years now - longer than the Liberal Party has been in existance in its current form).

[Mr. Morden]

I know this was asked before, but I didn't quite follow the answer: What specifically happens if it's 75-75, and neither side will budge?  Say Labor gets 75 votes on its side, and has to pick someone on its own side for Speaker because no one on the other side will take it.  Does the government instantly collapse?  Is the only way for 75-75 to work to get someone from the other camp to agree to be Speaker?

[Smid]

I know this was asked before, but I didn't quite follow the answer: What specifically happens if it's 75-75, and neither side will budge?  Say Labor gets 75 votes on its side, and has to pick someone on its own side for Speaker because no one on the other side will take it.  Does the government instantly collapse?  Is the only way for 75-75 to work to get someone from the other camp to agree to be Speaker?

I'm pretty sure that Dictionary.com has that as the very definition of a Constitutional Crisis... and the reason that Hugh said the size of the House needs to be expanded or shrunk (which echoes my opinion on the Victorian House - see earlier posts).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

More than likely - utter political disaster and another election would have to be called.

[Lief 🗽]

The silliest thing about Westminster systems is the position of speaker. It seems like it's set up precisely to result in problems like this.

[Joe Republic]

The silliest thing about Westminster systems is the position of speaker. It seems like it's set up precisely to result in problems like this.

Except in, you know, Westminster.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

I know this was asked before, but I didn't quite follow the answer: What specifically happens if it's 75-75, and neither side will budge?  Say Labor gets 75 votes on its side, and has to pick someone on its own side for Speaker because no one on the other side will take it.  Does the government instantly collapse?  Is the only way for 75-75 to work to get someone from the other camp to agree to be Speaker?

I'm pretty sure that Dictionary.com has that as the very definition of a Constitutional Crisis... and the reason that Hugh said the size of the House needs to be expanded or shrunk (which echoes my opinion on the Victorian House - see earlier posts).

IMO, Legislatures should always have an odd number of seats to prevent this from happening.

[redcommander]

Gillard should just call another election.

[Platypus]

Apparently Dunkley is borderline now...I dunno. Fingers crossed, but...I dunno.

[Mr. Morden]

The online betting markets are now giving Labor a 60% chance of forming the next government, whereas ~24 hours ago, it was 60/40 the other way.  This more or less tracks the more recent analysis I've been reading, which suggests that a coalition on the right might require the cooperation of too many people who can't stand each other.  Plus there's the possibility that Labor cracks either Hasluck or Dunkley.  If it gets either of those seats, then the best the Coalition can realistically hope for is a new election.

Also, Gillard's chances of being Labor leader at the next election (whenever that might happen) are now up to 50%, according to the oddsmakers.

[Platypus]

She was always going to keep the leadership, even if they lost, imho.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ABC list the following seats as being 'in doubt'...

Denison - ALP 50.6
Hasluck - Lib 50.3
Boothby - Lib 50.4
Dunkley - Lib 50.4

Brisbane has been called (again) for the Coalition.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Gillard should just call another election.

The UK tried that
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_February_1974
and there was not much change
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_October_1974

They did manage to slip in a few more seats, but the smaller parties were the largest benefactors. If there is another election this year, expect to see 5-3 Greens in the House and 12 or more Greens in the Senate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It seems that Albanese has nothing to worry about in Grayndler; Liberal preferences aren't going overwhelming to the Greens. Current AEC and ABC figures both show 55% ALP.

[Smid]

IMO, Legislatures should always have an odd number of seats to prevent this from happening.

Agreed!

Dunkley is because a couple of bundles have been found in the Liberal pile that should have been in the Labor pile during the recount. I've scrutineered recounts a couple of times and this is not as uncommon as might be suspected. The AEC collects votes in bundles of fifty, so this would have been four bundles in the wrong pile, leading to a change of 400. The Liberal incumbent still leads by 600 votes, so although much closer than before, I suspect he'll hang on.

Corangamite, Liberals trail by 1200 votes and need about 53% of postal votes (2PP) to win the seat... certainly not an impossible task. According to the AEC website this afternoon, just under 80% of the vote has been counted.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

At least that sort of thing gets found out in Australia. There have been cases in Britain where that's happened and it's been too late to do anything about it.

[Harry Hayfield]

This Australian election has (I believe) given the NO camp in the UK referendum on alternative vote another bat to use:

UK General Election 2010: Hung Parliament confirmed 9 hours after polls closed
Australian General Election 2010: Hung Parliament still not confirmed 50 hours after polls closed

Australia has 1/3rd the electorate and 1/4th the seats but uses AV to elect MP's. Vote NO to AV to ensure fast results.

[You kip if you want to...]

This Australian election has (I believe) given the NO camp in the UK referendum on alternative vote another bat to use:

UK General Election 2010: Hung Parliament confirmed 9 hours after polls closed
Australian General Election 2010: Hung Parliament still not confirmed 50 hours after polls closed

Australia has 1/3rd the electorate and 1/4th the seats but uses AV to elect MP's. Vote NO to AV to ensure fast results.

I was thinking if it'd influence our referendum when the polls started pointing to a hung parliament. There's the whole possibility of a constitutional crisis and I guess NO could run with the whole "the Greens got 1 MP, but 12% of the vote, what gives?" arguement. Well, atleast the NO side who want PR could use that and just say it's as unfair as FPTP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

First set of maps using a 'proper' key. I probably won't do another leaders map (for the House) until the results are basically final (barring laughably tight races leading to court cases and so on).

[You kip if you want to...]

Oakeshott reminds us that "76 is a by-election away from trouble". I still say if the INDs are actually serious about this whole "we'll go to who can govern effectively" business, then they have to go to the ALP because of the situation in the senate.